Donald Trump’s chances to win Pennsylvania increase: Oddsmakers

Former President Donald Trump has seen his odds of winning the 2024 presidential election improve over the past few hours, according to a prominent bookmaker, driven by swings in Pennsylvania and Arizona.

At 4:20 a.m. ET Tuesday, British betting firm Betfair gave the Republican nominee odds of 4/6 (60 percent) to win, compared to 6/4 (40 percent) for his Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris. As of 12:50 ET, however, Trump’s odds had been cut to 5/8 (61.5 percent), while Harris’ was extended to 8/5 (38.5 percent).

Voters are heading to the polls across the United States for what the latest poll shows will be a razor-thin contest. An analysis of recent surveys published Tuesday morning by the election website 538 put Harris 1.2 points ahead of Trump in the national poll, with 48 percent of the vote to 46.8 percent. However, due to the Electoral College system, Trump can lose the popular vote but still win the election, as he did in 2016 against Hillary Clinton.

The change in Betfair’s overall odds since this morning was driven by an improvement in Trump’s odds in the battleground states of Pennsylvania and Arizona.

In Pennsylvania, which has 19 Electoral College votes, Trump’s odds of winning went from 52 percent Tuesday morning to 58 percent, according to Betfair. During the same period, Trump’s odds of winning Arizona, which comes with 11 Electoral College votes, improved from 73 percent to 78 percent.

Betfair spokesman Sam Rosbottom said Newsweek: “Punters’ (Aries’) faith in the former president continues to grow as Republicans look closer to victory in two key swing states—Arizona and Pennsylvania.

“Republicans now have a 2/7 (78 percent chance) of winning in Arizona and a 5/7 (58 percent chance) in Pennsylvania,” Rosbottom said. “Trump’s odds have shortened in both states in the last few hours. He’s ahead in five of the seven swing states.”

Newsweek contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment Tuesday via email.

An artificial intelligence-based model created by Aaru for the media Semafor has Harris favored to win five out of seven battleground states.

The model, which is based on the creation of “a thousand or more” AI bots for each state representing the electorate, concluded that the vice president is most likely to win in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. However, Trump had the lead in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. If all other states repeat their election results in 2020, that would be enough to give Harris the win.

The final election forecast released by 538 on Tuesday found Harris with a 50 percent chance of winning the election, just ahead of Trump at 49 percent. The data was based on 1,000 election simulations and last updated at 6 a.m. ET.

However, a Decision Desk HQ/The Hill forecast released Tuesday gave Trump a 54 percent chance of victory to Harris’ 46 percent. The average projection gave the Republican victory with 276 Electoral College votes (270 needed to win), ahead of Harris’ 262.

Speaking to reporters in Palm Beach, Florida while casting his vote, Trump insisted he would concede if he loses a “fair” election.

“If I lose an election, if it’s a fair election, I’d be the first to admit it,” he said. “So far, I think it’s been fair.”

Trump continues to insist that the 2020 presidential election was stolen from him via fraud, even though the claim has been repeatedly rejected in the courts and by independent election experts.