Final 2024 election predictions from betting markets have experts sounding the alarm

It’s election day, and although both candidates may be neck and neck in the polls, betting sites show a clear preference for one Republicans victory.

Polymarket, a blockchain-based betting platform, has provided Donald Trump a massive 38 point lead against Kamala Harris at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, according to a summary published by Forbes.

Other sites such as Kalshi, Predict It, Robinhood and Interactive Brokers also favor a Trump victory with percentages of 59, 51, 58 and 60 respectively.

Combined, those numbers have given Republicans a 58.5% chance of winning against the Democrats in today’s polls, according to the aggregate counting tool Odds on election betting.

Prediction markets, as websites that facilitate betting on the outcome of various real-world events are otherwise known, have become somewhat of a controversial topic in recent weeks.

Some experts have expressed concern about the potential for odds being pushed by these platforms into muddy electoral waters with forecasts based on perceived investment opportunities rather than a broader view of political developments. The flow of money, especially from foreign entities, can skew the results.

Polymarket, itself the world’s largest prediction market, has come under particular scrutiny after it was revealed that a single French national had bet more than $45 million on a Trump victory, pushing the Republican candidate’s odds as high as 66%.

The site has nevertheless received resounding support from Trump’s most vocal and arguably most controversial backer, Elon Muskwho has praised the prediction markets as being “more accurate than (traditional) polls since actual money is at stake.”

Billionaire investor and longtime Trump critic Mark Cubanhowever, has taken aim at the site, pointing out that US citizens are technically prohibited from trading on the platform and that “foreign money” is an unreliable predictor of the course of political events in the US.

Rajiv Sethi, an economist at Columbia University’s Barnard College, also warned in an interview with Bloomberg that deep-pocketed players from foreign locales could throw money in Trump’s favor.

“There’s no reason that the price that comes out of their activity with each other is somehow going to generate an accurate forecast,” Sethi said.

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