Top Polling Guru Nate Silver Reveals The Final 2024 Election Prediction Model – And It Couldn’t Be Closer

Polling guru Nate Silver has revealed his final prediction model for the 2024 presidential election — and has concluded that the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is “literally closer than a coin flip.”

In Silver’s model, Harris won the Electoral College in 50,015 percent of the 80,000 simulations, giving her a razor-thin lead.

“The race is literally closer than a coin flip: Empirically, heads win 50.5 percent of the time, more than Harris’s 50.015 percent,” Silver wrote on his Substack page Tuesday morning.

“When I say the odds in this year’s presidential election are as close as you can get to 50/50, I’m not exaggerating,” he said.

Silver added that Harris did not emerge victorious in 39,988 simulations (49,985 percent), and of those, 39,718 were outright wins for Trump.

The remaining 270 simulations resulted in an electoral college tie, Silver said, adding that he would normally only run 40,000 simulations.

Nate Silver has shared his final voting model for the election
Nate Silver has shared his final voting model for the election (Silver Bulletin/Substack)

“This is my fifth presidential election — and my ninth general election overall, including the midterms — and there’s never been anything like it,” Silver said.

Silver said his model is a “direct descendant” of FiveThirtyEight election forecast.

On Sunday, the election guru said any momentum Trump had in October had “fallen out in November.”

“We will most likely go into Tuesday night with the race really being a toss-up that doesn’t lean or tilt toward Trump,” he added.

Silver's modeling shows that the race between Harris and Trump is closer than a coin flip
Silver’s modeling shows that the race between Harris and Trump is closer than a coin flip (AFP via Getty Images)

The prediction model comes days after a new shock study from Des Moines Register and Mediacom in Iowa found Harris leading Trump in the state, 47 percent to 44 percent.

Trump won Iowa in both 2016 and 2020, and the state — which has six Electoral College votes — was considered a likely Republican win.

In response to that poll, Trump lashed out during a Sunday rally, calling it “oppression.” “They are oppressing and it should actually be illegal,” he insisted.

Vote off Emerson College told a completely different story, putting Trump ten points ahead of Harris in Iowa.