The US stock market prediction points to a likely Trump victory in the most intense battle against Harris

While the final election results have been released, in-person voting in the historic US election is still underway. It’s a tense time and there isn’t much fresh data to analyze about the potential winner of the US presidential election.

Meanwhile, investors continue to place and change their bets. From prediction markets to bonds, they have more opportunities than ever to express their opinions on the expected outcome of the tight race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Despite the fact that Trump’s apparent lead over Harris has shrunk in recent days, they still placed the majority of their money on the former president.

Know what PredictIt, Kalshi and Polymarket have predicted

The election betting markets are the best place to find out what the public is thinking. PredictIt, Kalshi and Polymarket are the three that get the most attention.

As of Monday afternoon in the United States, Trump has about a 60% probability of winning the election, according to Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based website that claims to be the largest prediction market in the world. This marks a drop from 67% the previous week, after some late surveys that were more favorable to Harris, such as the unexpected Selzer poll in Iowa. However, Polymarket has many detractors, some of whom claim that its prices can be easily influenced.

Read more about US elections 2024: Catch all the news makers, detailed explanations and deep analysis of the US election

On the other hand, Harris is ahead by the smallest margin at PredictIt, which is the oldest of the three major online betting markets, which was established exactly ten years ago. However, it also has strict limits on multiplayer and the amount of their bets, making it the most limited platform by design.

Regulated exchange Kalshi now shows Trump has a 56% chance of winning, down from 65% last week. Kalshi tentatively indicated that Harris was the front-runner after the Selzer vote.

It can be easy to write off these various platforms as pointless venues run by young men who spend a large portion of their waking hours on the internet. However, their pricing has been remarkably similar to “real money” in larger established markets.

To gauge the position of stock investors in the election, experts at the investment firm Piper Sandler constructed two separate stock portfolios whose fortunes can fluctuate based on the outcome of the presidential election.

HT in the US: Special coverage of the US election by Prashant Jha

A look at Trump and Harris’ portfolios

Their Trump portfolio includes short positions in companies like Apple that would suffer in a trade war with China, as well as oil and arms industries. While they played against banking institutions and pharmaceutical companies that would be subject to greater regulation under Democrats, their Harris portfolio is heavily weighted toward electric vehicle and renewable energy makers.