GOP continues to gain on Dems in latest voter registration update

Republican voter registrants nearly tripled Democratic registrations in October, according to the data released today.

Republicans gained 16,945 registrants last, compared to 6,015 for Democrats. Republicans have gained ground on Democrats in recent months, and Democrats now outnumber Republicans by about 906,000.

In particular, unaffiliated registrants outnumbered both parties last month with 44,484 new registrants. Of course, it is difficult to predict how they might vote.

Democrats now make up 37.7% of registered voters, while Republicans account for 24.2% of statewide registrants. Those rates are similar to last month — with more than 6.7 million registered voters in the state, it’s taking a lot to get a handle on the overall makeup.

The last day to vote for Tuesday’s election was October 15. Friday’s voter registration update is the last before the election.

Zooming in on NJ-7

All eyes are on New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District, which many consider the only truly competitive federal election in the state (as well as one of the most competitive in the country).

Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-Westfield) faces a challenge from Sue Altman in a contest that has received significant outside funding.

7th District gained nearly 5,000 enrollments in October. Unaffiliated voter registrants accounted for 3,081 registrations in the district, a clear majority. Democrats got 446 registrants and Republicans got 1,243 — reason enough for Republicans to be hopeful, while still keeping in mind that the new unaffiliated voters could vote any way they wanted.

In the 7th, registered Democrats make up 30.5% of voters, while Republicans make up 33.6% of voters. Neither party can operate without the consent of unaffiliated voters, who make up a plurality of 34.8% of voters in the district.

Here’s how the district was made up at this point in 2022: 30.7% Democratic, 33.4% Republican, and 34.8% unaffiliated. The Republicans have certainly made the smallest dents, but the electorate is largely unchanged in terms of partisanship compared to 2022.

(Comparison to 2020 or earlier would be apples-to-oranges, given redistricting.)

There are no hidden indicators in this data as to who might triumph (nor are there known indicators in advanced voting data, for that matter). The answer will only begin to be felt on Tuesday evening. Tune in.

Looking back

Before we go, let’s take a big look at voter registration data in presidential election years.

Comparing this month’s data to 2020, you can see the not-insignificant reason Republicans have made up with Democrats.

In 2020, Democrats made up 38.9% of the electorate, compared to 37.7% today. Republicans made up 22.3% of the electorate four years ago, but they are up to 24.2% today.

The 1.08 million eligible voters Democrats had at this point four years ago are now down to about 900,000. These numbers don’t necessarily change the zeitgeist, but they do show a trend that has shown little sign of stopping.

Democrats can take solace in the fact that they are better placed now than they were in 2016, at least according to voter registration numbers.

At this point in 2016, Democrats made up 35.6% of registered voters. The Trump era ushered in years of strong voter registration for Democrats, perhaps giving the party an unsustainable lead to begin with.