Top picks from the NFL betting divisions for Sunday, November 3rd

Today we have a loaded Sunday NFL Week 9 slate on tap with 13 games to choose from. Let’s explore where the smart money is leaning with our VSiN NFL betting splits, which come straight from DraftKings and are updated every 10 minutes.

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The Chargers (4-3) have won two of their last three games and just blanked the Saints 26-8, easily covering as 7.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Browns (2-6) snapped a five-game losing streak with a 29-24 win over the Ravens and won outright as 7.5-point underdogs. This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 4.5-point road favorite. The public leans against the Chargers with 55% of spread bets putting points on Los Angeles. However, despite receiving a majority of spread bets, we have seen Los Angeles drop from -4.5 to -1.5 or even -1 in some shops. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Cleveland, as the line has moved in their favor consistently all week despite being the unpopular side. We haven’t noticed any visible buyback of the chargers either. Conference dogs that score 4 points or less are 141-119 ATS (54%) with a 5% ROI since 2018. For those concerned about a close game that might not cover the spread, Cleveland is also in prime ” Wong Teaser” spot (+1.5 to +7.5) passing through the upper key figures of 3 and 7. Regarding the total, open to 39.5 and bet up to 42.5. But we are now seeing some below 42.5 inflated line buybacks. Under receives 50% of stakes but 68% of dollars, a stark contrarian “low stakes, higher dollars” stake split. Bill Vinovich, the leading umpire, is historically 58% under. The Chargers are 6-1 this season, the best team in the NFL. Those looking for another part of the Wong teaser could entertain taking the total up from 42.5 to 48.5 and going under for extra safety.

The Rams (3-4) have won two games in a row and just took down the Vikings 30-20 and won outright as 2.5 point underdogs. Conversely, the Seahawks (4-4) have lost four of their last five games and were just crushed by the Bills 31-10, failing to cover as 3-point home dogs. The early opening of this game was the Seahawks -3 at home. But after their poor performance against Buffalo and the Rams’ big win over the Vikings, we quickly saw this line flip to Los Angeles -1.5. Some stores even reached as high as Rams -2.5 during the week. Basically, all the movement and responsibility has been on Los Angeles as a “dog to favorite” system match. The Rams receive 72% of spread bets and 74% of spread dollars, indicating that both Pro and Joe support both punt and betting audiences. Road favorites are 26-16 ATS (62%) with a 17% ROI this season. Those looking to mitigate some risk in a potential close win that may not cover the spread can choose to bet Los Angeles on the moneyline at -125. Road favorites are 32-12 (73%) with a 14% ROI straight up this season. The Rams enjoy a notable “rested vs tired” advantage as they last played on Thursday while the Seahawks played on Sunday. Los Angeles also has correlative betting value as the card favorite in a high total game (48), where the more expected points scored makes it easier for the favorite to cover the number. Clay Martin, the lead umpire, is 59% ATS to the read team, historically. The Seahawks are dealing with a rash of injuries and will be without starting WR DK Metcalf, T Abraham Lucas and TE Noah Fant.

The Colts (4-4) just saw their two-game winning streak come to an end, falling to the Texans 23-20 but covering as 5-point road dogs. On the other hand, the Vikings (5-2) have lost two straight and just fell to the Rams 30-20, losing outright as 2.5 point road favorites. This line opened with Minnesota listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. The public sees a “get it right” spot for the Vikings, and 70% of spread bets put points with Minnesota at home. But despite receiving such lopsided support, we’ve seen the Vikings drop from -6.5 to -5.5. Some stores are even down to -5. This signals sharp reverse line moves on the Colts as they have moved in their favor despite being the unpopular play. This move also coincided with the news that the Colts will start Joe Flacco over Anthony Richardson at quarterback, signaling that the market believes Flacco is an upgrade. Indianapolis has notable contrarian value as they receive only 30% of spread bets in a strong betting, nationally televised Sunday Night Football matchup. Sweet spot road dogs that score 4.5 points or more are 21-13 ATS (62%) with an 18% ROI this season. Primetime Dogs are 129-108 ATS (54%) with a 5% ROI since 2020. Shawn Smith, the leading umpire, is historically 58% ATS for the road team.