Here’s when we’ll know the Trump-Harris election results in the 7 battleground states

On November 2, 2024By Littum

Upper line

In the seven swing states likely to decide Tuesday’s election, the timing of results varies based on laws in each state and the amount of absentee ballots — with the earliest indication of who might win likely to be at the end of Election Day. when results are reported in Georgia and North Carolina, but final tallies may take days or weeks.

Former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally at … (+) Lee’s family forum in Henderson, Nevada, October 31, 2024. (Photo by IAN MAULE/AFP via Getty Images)

AFP via Getty Images

Key facts

In a race this close — with polling averages showing Harris and Trump within two points of each other nationally — unofficial results could take days to come in, especially if races come down to a small number of votes in the seven battleground states.

The Associated Press, which uses a network of “thousands of pollsters and pollsters who take feeds, scrape official state websites for data and electronically tally votes across the country,” is the official source used by major media outlets to determine US election outcomes , which is made when “it is certain that the candidate who is ahead in the count cannot be caught,” according to AP.

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When can we expect results in the seven swing states?

North Carolina: It is likely to be one of the first states to be called, as about 90% of ballots are expected to be counted by midnight on Election Day, University of North Carolina political science professor Jason Roberts said. Fox Digital. The polling stations close relatively early, at 7:30 PM ET, and officials process absentee ballots once a week from October 1 through Election Day. They are allowed to start counting absentee ballots between 9:00 am and 5:00 pm on Election Day, but in-person early votes cannot be counted until the polls close.

Georgia: Officials were allowed to begin processing mail-in ballots on the third Monday before Election Day, Oct. 21, and begin counting them at 1 p.m. 7 on election day. The polling stations close at 7 p.m. ET. A new law passed this year requires counties to report the results of early voting and absentee voting by 20.00 on election day and report the number of uncounted votes no later than 10 p.m

Wisconsin: The state can start processing absentee ballots at 7 on election day, and polling stations close at 9 p.m. ET. Election officials expect unofficial results late on Election Day or early on November 6, writes the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported.

Michigan: Unofficial results are expected the day after the election, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson told reporters this week, Lansing State Journal reported. Recent changes to election law allow officials to start processing ballots earlier than before, which can speed up results: cities and townships with a population of at least 5,000 can start processing absentee ballots eight days before the election between 7 a.m. and 8 p.m., while all the state can begin processing ballots the Monday morning before the election. Polling stations close in most of the state at 8 p.m. ET, but four Upper Peninsula counties are in the Central Time Zone and will continue to vote until 8 p.m. 9 p.m. ET.

Pennsylvania: The state may take longer than others to count ballots, as election officials are prohibited from processing submitted ballots until 1 p.m. 7 on election day. The polling stations close at 8 p.m. ET. Results may take several days to be tabulated, as they did in the 2020 election. Wait times may be shorter as fewer voters are expected to vote by mail than they did during the Covid-19 pandemic and some counties have invested in new equipment to open and process ballots faster, says Secretary of State Al Schmidt told WITF Radio in September.

Nevada: The state does not announce results until after the last voter in line, when polling stations close at 10 PM ET have cast their vote. Mailed ballots can be counted 15 days before Election Day, which could lead to faster results than in 2020, but a state law that allows mailed ballots postmarked by Election Day to be counted if received by Nov. 9 could be extended. the process. The majority of Nevada voters cast their ballots by mail.

Arizona: The state is among the slowest of all the battleground states to count ballots, and officials estimate it could take 10 to 13 days to complete the count, according to Washington Post. Election officials count mail-in ballots as they are received, but do not begin processing mail-in ballots delivered on Election Day until after the polls close at 6 p.m. 9 p.m. ET. An unusually long two-page ballot that includes 13 statewide ballots could also delay results.

Which states are likely to be the first to report results?

North Carolina and Georgia are expected to be the first swing states to release results that could indicate which candidate is likely to win. Trump has a slight lead in both states, though most polls are within the margin of error and show a virtual tie.

What are the recount rules?

In Arizona and Pennsylvania, state laws mandate a recount if the candidates’ votes are within 0.5% of each other or less, while Pennsylvania also allows voters to request recounts in specific precincts where they expect fraud or error, or in all precincts, if there is none. allegation of an irregularity. Candidates can ask for a recount in Georgia if there is a difference of 0.5% or less between their vote shares, and the Secretary of State’s office can order one if errors or irregularities are suspected. Michigan is giving candidates more leeway to ask for a recount under new laws signed into law in August that allow them to do so if they are able to “allege a good faith belief that the candidate, apart from errors in the text or the return of the votes, would have a fair chance of winning.” The losing candidate in Nevada can also request a recount within three days of the vote being certified, while North Carolina law allows them to request a recount if there is a difference of 1% or less between the vote totals. Wisconsin allows candidates to request a recount if they lose by one percent or less and suspect a “defect, irregularity or illegality.”

Key

In a phenomenon known as the “red mirage”, early vote counts on Election Day are likely to favor Trump as in-person ballots are counted, as Democrats tend to favor absentee voting and the counting of mail-in ballots is often delayed, leading to a so-called “blue shift”. At the same time, smaller, rural districts that lean Republican are also more likely to report vote totals before larger urban districts.

Key background

The election was called for President Joe Biden on November 7, 2020, four days after Election Day, in which Biden won Pennsylvania when the state put him over the 270-vote threshold needed to secure victory. States generally took longer to count votes in the 2020 election as large numbers of voters cast ballots by mail amid the Covid-19 pandemic. And while early voting records have broken records in several states, the percentage of absentee ballots is expected to decline this year. The 2016 election was called for Trump much sooner, at 2:29 the night after the election, after he won Wisconsin’s 10 electoral votes.