Caribbean An area to watch for tropical development

On By Littum

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  • A broad area of ​​low pressure is likely to form in a few days over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
  • This low may gradually try to create a tropical depression or storm, but any development will be slow.
  • The western Caribbean is an area that has historically experienced tropical development in November.

The final month of the hurricane season is approaching, but it may not be completely quiet as the western Caribbean is being watched for possible late-season tropical development.

Here’s the latest status for the Caribbean region to see: The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says a broad area of ​​low pressure is likely to form within days in the area highlighted below, which is east of Central America and south of the Greater Antilles.

After that, this area of ​​low pressure will be closely watched to see if it becomes better defined with concentrated thunderstorm activity. If that happens, a tropical depression or storm may develop.

Any possible tropical development will not occur until this weekend or early next week at the earliest. The next Atlantic storm name is Patty.

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National Hurricane Center Possible Development Area

(The possible area of ​​tropical development according to the latest outlook from the National Hurricane Center is shown by the polygon, color-coded by the chance of development over the next seven days.)

Here’s where this potential system could track: It is important to note that this possible storm formation scenario will develop slowly.

For now, the NHC says this eventual broad area of ​​low pressure will only slowly drift northward over the next five or more days. If a named storm does eventually develop, it’s too early to know which landmasses it might affect in the Caribbean or elsewhere.

The broad low pressure area in combination with a stall front could produce at least locally heavy rain in Central America and other parts of the Caribbean, regardless of tropical development.

The Caribbean is a typical site for late season storm formation. The chances of tropical storm formation usually continue to decrease as we enter the final month of the hurricane season.

(MORE: What you need to know about the final stretch of hurricane season)

Historically, the area in yellow below, stretching from the western Caribbean to the Bahamas as well as a separate area in the central Atlantic, has had the most occurrences of named storm formations in November.

The last month of hurricane season generates an average of one storm every 1 to 2 years. Over the past 10 years, the last storm of the season has blown off as early as October 28 and as late as December 7.

Last year, no storms formed in the month of November.

But 2022 was the opposite, with Martin and Nicole developing into November hurricanes. Lisa also intensified into a hurricane during the month after forming as a tropical storm on October 31.

Nicole eventually went on to hit Florida’s Atlantic coast as a Category 1, becoming only the fourth November hurricane to make landfall on the U.S. mainland in records dating back to the mid-19th century.

Chris Dolce has been a senior meteorologist at weather.com for over 10 years after starting his career with The Weather Channel in the early 2000s.