Who from the nomination list wins?

On By Littum

game

Is “The Brutalist” Building the Foundation for a Best Picture Run? Could “Anora” seduce everyone this awards season? Or can these “wicked” witches defy gravity—and tough competition—on their way to Oscar glory on March 2?

A new year means a whole new ballpark, and while no movie so far stands as a heavy favorite, Sunday’s 82nd Golden Globe Awards (CBS, 8 p.m. EST/5 PST and live streaming on Paramount+ with Showtime) will begin to clear the way for the 97th Oscars – distribution a little clearer. Heavyweights like “Brutalist” and “Conclave” will battle for best drama, while “Anora” and “Wicked” battle it out with “Emilia Pérez” (which boasts 10 leading nominations) in the best musical/comedy category. And we’ll see if Globe-winning A-listers like Angelina Jolie and Denzel Washington have that golden touch again at this year’s event, hosted by comedian Nikki Glaser.

USA TODAY predicts who will win (and who should) in the top movie categories:

Best Drama

“The Brutalist”

“A Complete Unknown”

“Conclave”

“Dune: Part Two”

“Nickel Boys”

“5. September”

Will win/should win: “The Brutalist”

It’s a strong contingent of dramas, from the Bob Dylan biopic “Complete Unknown” to the papal thriller “Conclave” to the innovative coming-of-age film “Nickel Boys,” most of which will be seen again when the Oscar nominations come later on the month. “The Brutalist” was the best film of 2024, and Brady Corbet’s monumental period epic is also the leader of this class, a riveting look at the immigrant experience and a dark take on the American dream.

Best Comedy or Musical

“Anora”

“Challenger”

“Emilia Perez”

“A Real Pain”

“The Substance”

“Evil”

Will win: “Evil’

Must win: “the substance”

Bold and flashy, the big-screen adaptation of the Broadway musical “Wicked” has won the hearts of audiences and likely has the edge over Cinderella stripper story “Anora,” a critical darling, and the Spanish-language musical crime thriller “Emilia.” But come on, there’s only one real choice here: the brash, goofy and bloody brilliant “Substance,” a go-for-broke horror film that tackles aging and identity with a never-better Demi Moore.

Best Actor in a Drama

Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist”

Timothée Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown”

Daniel Craig, “Queer”

Colman Domingo, “Sing Sing”

Ralph Fiennes, “Conclave”

Sebastian Stan, “The Apprentice”

Will win: Brody

Must win: Domingo

Fun fact: Adrien Brody won an Oscar for Best Actor for “The Pianist” in 2003, but didn’t win the Globe, losing to Jack Nicholson. It’s a safe bet that won’t happen here for “The Brutalist,” again as a Holocaust survivor in the tale of a Hungarian-Jewish architect making a life in America. Still, no one in this lineup, not even a mighty Brody, matches the pure emotion and poignant heart of Domingo’s theater-loving convict in “Sing Sing.”

Best Actress in a Drama

Pamela Anderson, “The Last Showgirl”

Angelina Jolie, “Maria”

Nicole Kidman, “Babygirl”

Tilda Swinton, “The Room Next Door”

Fernanda Torres, “I’m Still Here”

Kate Winslet, “Lee”

Will win: Jolie

Must win: Kidman

Like “Bohemian Rhapsody” and “Judy” before it, the musical biopic “Maria” is a case of the performance being better than the movie — in this case, Jolie brings opera legend Maria Callas to life in her final days. The category is hers to lose, though Kidman has a quietly powerful and quite visceral turn in “Babygirl” as a middle-aged CEO who mingles with a younger employee and gets caught up in his kinky games.

Best Actor in a Comedy or Musical

Jesse Eisenberg, “A Real Pain”

Hugh Grant, “Heretic”

Gabriel LaBelle, “Saturday Night”

Jesse Plemons, “Kinds of Kindness”

Glen Powell, “Hit Man”

Sebastian Stan, “A Different Man”

Will win/should win: Stan

There’s something to love about all the actors in this group, from rom-com icon Grant as a cleverly crafted horror villain to new Hollywood favorite Powell’s best all-around work to date. Then there’s Stan, downright extraordinary in the meta-dark comedy “Different Man” as an aspiring actor with a facial disfigurement who embarks on an experimental treatment that “fixes” him physically but doesn’t cure his crippling insecurities .

Best Actress in a Comedy or Musical

Amy Adams, “Nightbitch”

Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked”

Karla Sofia Gascón, “Emilia Pérez”

Mikey Madison, “Anora”

Demi Moore, “The Substance”

Zendaya, “Challengers”

Will win: Madison

Must win: Gascón

This could be the first round of a two-woman Oscar race for best actress between Madison, the acclaimed breakout of “Anora,” and Erivo, the impressive heart and soul of “Wicked.” Madison has an advantage at this point given the indie love for her role as a frenetic Brooklyn sex worker. Yet in this crowded field of everyone’s rather fabulous, talented trans newcomer Gascón stands out as a former drug kingpin trying to make amends for his new life as a woman.

Best Supporting Actor

Yura Borisov, “Anora”

Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”

Edward Norton, “A Complete Unknown”

Guy Pearce, “The Brutalist”

Jeremy Strong, “The Apprentice”

Denzel Washington, “Gladiator II”

Will win: Culkin

Must win: Borisov

At least one actor is running the awards season table all the way to an Oscar win, and so far the most likely to reign is Culkin, who jumps from his brash “Succession” role to the role of a similarly mercurial rabbler on the eye opening tour in “A Real Pain.” But in this field of big outings also from Norton, Pearce and Washington, Burisov phenomenally takes what is essentially a background henchman role and makes his empathetic thugs shine.

Best Supporting Actress

Selena Gomez, “Emilia Perez”

Ariana Grande, “Wicked”

Felicity Jones, “The Brutalist”

Margaret Qualley, “The Substance”

Isabella Rossellini, “Conclave”

Zoe Saldana, “Emilia Perez”

Will win: Grande

Must win: Saldana

Barring some unforeseen surprises, expect the supporting Oscar race to come down to either Grande or Saldana, with whoever wins Sunday taking the pole position. As fun as a Qualley upset would be, Grande should get the Globe with her comically self-obsessed performance as popular girl Glinda. Just don’t sleep on the fact that Saldana might be the ultimate winner in March, given her complex role (and frequent singing) as a thoughtful lawyer.