What to know about the majority in the House, the Senate and what it means for Trump’s plans

On January 4, 2025By Littum

On Friday, the new Congress – the 119th – officially began its duties. When Donald Trump is sworn in as president on January 20, Republicans will have unified control of the government. But especially in Parliament, the margin will be close.

Rep. Mike Johnson, R-La., was re-elected as a representative to the House of Representatives, receiving the bare minimum, 218 votes. Senator John Thune, RS.D., was chosen by his Republican colleagues as the new Senate Majority Leader.

Here’s a guide to what’s new in Congress and what to look for over the next two years.

How narrow is the future house majority?

Republicans will control the presidency, the Senate and the House starting January 20, when Trump is inaugurated. But the margin in the house will be slim, and especially at least for a while.

In the 2024 election for the 435-seat House of Representatives, Republicans won 220 seats, while Democrats won 215.

In the past, Parliament has looked even slimmer sharesincluding in 1917-18 and 1931-32. But the incoming Republican edge is small by historical standards and is even smaller than during the previous two Congresses. For most of 2021–22, Democrats held a 222–213 advantage, and for most of 2023–2024, Republicans held a 221–214 majority.

If all members of the House are present and voting, and if the Democratic minority is united, then Republicans can afford to lose two defectors and still win an otherwise partisan vote, 218-217.

The problem for Republicans is that, at least for a few months, their margin will be even narrower.

President-elect Donald Trump has tapped two members of the House of Representatives for his administration: Rep. Elise Stefanik, RN.Y., who ambassador to the UNand rep. Mike Waltz, R-Fla., as his national security adviser. He chose a third, Florida Republican Matt Gaetz, to be his solicitor general; while Gaetz eventually withdrew from consideration, he preemptively withdrew from the House seat he won in November 2024.

Their vacancies will be filled by special elections; both general elections in Florida have been planned until 1 April. New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, a Democrat, is responsible for scheduling the district’s special election when a vacancy is official.

Already, Gaetz’s departure means that the Republican majority has narrowed to 219-215. And once Stefanik and Waltz retire from the House, the Republican majority will shrink again, to 217-215, subject to the emergence of Democratic vacancies.

That means a unified Democratic convention in February and March — traditionally a legislative-heavy period, especially with a new president taking office — can defeat any piece of legislation if just one Republican is missing. (A vote of 216-216 fails.)

How narrow is the coming majority in the Senate?

Across the Capitol, the Senate is shifting to Republican control.

Assuming all senators are present and voting, Republicans will have a 53-47 majority. (This counts two independents — Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine — as Democrats, since they caucus with the party and are assigned Democratic committee seats.)

Before the 2024 election, Democrats held a 51-49 majority in the Senate, but Republicans were able to flip seats in Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia.

Republicans could effectively lose three votes on legislation that requires a majority because Republican Vice President-elect JD Vance could break a tie. And speaking of Vance, he and Secretary of State nominee Marco Rubio are both expected to resign from their seats in the US Senate. Unlike the House, however, their replacements will be chosen by the governors of Ohio and Florida, respectively — both of whom are Republicans.

What does this mean for Trump’s ability to implement his agenda?

Overall, Trump is his party’s undisputed leader, and his legislative priorities will carry significant weight for House Republicans. However, the house’s narrow margin means they have little room for error.

House Republicans may have some leverage over Democrats in the upcoming Congress.

Preliminary calculations indicate that 13 Democratic House members represent districts that voted for Trump in 2024, compared to three Republican House members representing districts that voted for Vice President Kamala Harris. This is one back side from the start of the previous Congress, when there were 18 Republicans in districts that President Joe Biden won in 2020 and five Democrats in districts that Trump won in 2020.

Democrats representing Trump-won districts may feel the need to break with strict party discipline and join Republicans on polls from time to time to maintain their credibility with pro-Trump voters.

Republicans will have more breathing room in the Senate, but they will face a different challenge in that chamber.

Under long-standing rules, the Senate requires a 60-vote supermajority to move to a final vote on legislation. Given the increased partisan polarization in recent years, that has been a high threshold, making it difficult to introduce new laws through the ordinary process.

But there is an alternative process called reconciliation that allows for review by simple majority within some important limits. It requires both chambers to pass an identical budget resolution that includes “voting instructions” — guidance to committees on how much to reduce the deficit in their areas or how much to limit spending increases. The resulting bill, passed during the reconciliation process, must run through a barrage of procedural challenges designed to ensure that the provisions are all focused on tax issues. Once that is done, the bill is passed if it receives a simple majority. Generally, this process can only be used once a year.

The lower voting threshold has made reconciliation the strategy of both parties in recent years. Biden used it to pass the American Rescue Plan Act and the Inflation Reduction Act. In the past, Trump and President George W. Bush used it to pass major tax legislation, and President Barack Obama used it to pass the Affordable Care Act.

This is a much more feasible approach for Republicans. It is too possible for the Senate to end, or lower, the 60-vote majority requirement for legislation, as previous Democratic and Republican majorities have done for judicial and other nominations, but given the chamber’s traditions, that would represent a major break.

Ultimately, it is hardly a certainty that the House and Senate will agree on the fine print of the legislation, even with both chambers of the same party. So while Trump would rather have Republican control of both chambers than the alternative, navigating the slim margins, especially in the House, could be a challenge for his parts. agenda which requires congressional approval.

Who will lead the parties in the Parliament and the Senate?

In addition to Johnson as House Speaker, other top Republican leaders will continue in their roles: Republican Leader Steve Scalise of Louisiana and Whip Tom Emmer.

Democrats also retained their House leader, Rep. Hakeem Jeffries from New York. The other top Democratic leaders in the House will continue in the new Congress: Whip Katherine Clark of Massachusetts and Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar of California.

Meanwhile, the Senate had already elected its leaders. Thune becomes Senate majority leader; Thune’s successor as whip is John Barrasso from Wyoming.

The Democrats keep their existing leader, Chuck Schumer of New York, as well as his No. 2, whip Dick Durbin of Illinois.

Who will lead the top committees in the House and Senate?

In recent decades, power in the House has tended to centralize in the speaker’s office. But committees remain a center of power if diminished.

The two highest-profile House committees in recent years have been those waging very public partisan battles: the Judiciary Committee and the Oversight and Accountability Committee. Under both parties, these committees have fought over the impeachment of Donald Trump and investigations into Biden and his son Hunter.

The judiciary will continue to be led by Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio, while Oversight will continue to be led by James Comer of Kentucky. For the new Congress, the Democrats have elected Rep. Jamie Raskin of Maryland for the top Judiciary post and Gerry Connolly of Virginia for the top post of Oversight.

Meanwhile, a number of other House committees have significant authority on substantive issues. They include appropriations, which handle federal expenditures; Ways and Means, which oversees taxation; Agriculture; armed services; Energy and Trade; Financial services; Foreign Affairs; Homeland Security; and Transport and Infrastructure.

The Senate also has committees. Given the Senate’s responsibility for confirming judges, the Senate Judiciary Committee is always an important panel. In the new Congress, it will be led by Chuck Grassley of Iowa; the ranking Democrat will be the outgoing chairman, Durbin.

Other Senate committees overlap with House committees, but not exactly. The Senate has an Appropriations Committee, and the Finance Committee mostly corresponds to the House Ways and Means.

Many of the Senate committees will be involved in considering presidential nominees for cabinet departments and other high posts.

Who are some new members of interest?

Among the house democrats are some of them remarkable incoming members are:

George Latimer of New York, a longtime statesman and county man who defeated Rep. Jamaal Bowman, a progressive “team” member, in a Democratic primary last year.
Sarah McBride of Delaware, a former state senator who is about to become the first transgender member of Congress, and whose presence led Johnson to declare that bathrooms in the Capitol complex must be used according to a person’s gender determined at birth.
Eugene Vindman of Virginia, an Army veteran and National Security Council official who, along with his identical twin brother, Alexander, played a role in informing Congress about a phone call between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that led to Trump’s first impeachment.
George Whitesides of California, a former senior NASA official and CEO of Virgin Galactic, who narrowly unseated Republican Rep. Mike Garcia.

Among Republicans, notable future members of the House of Representatives include:

Riley Moore of West Virginia, nephew of Senator Shelly Moore Capito, RW.Va., who served as state treasurer and earlier in his career worked for the House Foreign Affairs Committee.
Tim Moore of North Carolina, who served five influential terms as Speaker of the North Carolina House.
Derek Schmidt of Kansas, a former state Senate majority leader who went on to serve as attorney general.

In the Senate, the four incoming Republicans who won seats previously held by Democrats are Jim Justice of West Virginia, the state’s outgoing governor; David McCormick of Pennsylvania, a hedge fund manager; Bernie Moreno of Ohio, a businessman; and Tim Sheehy of Montana, a former Navy SEAL and businessman.

Two other Republicans are new to the chamber: former Reps. Jim Banks of Indiana and John Curtis of Utah.

Democrats are up for four new senators: Angela Alsobrooks, a former county executive from Maryland, and former Reps. Lisa Blunt Rochester of Delaware, Ruben Gallego of Arizona and Elissa Slotkin of Michigan. Alsobrooks and Rochester become the third and fourth black women elected to the Senate, following Carol Moseley Braun, D-Ill., and Harris.

Senate Democrats have two other new members who won in November 2024 but took their seats early to fill vacancies: former Reps. Adam Schiff from California and Andy Kim from New Jersey.

By Louis JacobsenPolitiFact staff writer