KSHB 41 Weather Blog | A little snow on Thursday, a lot of snow on Sunday

On January 2, 2025By Littum

Happy New Year blog readers –

January is a month that likes to be cold and snowy… so let’s get started!

Thursday we got a weak gravy system heading north, but this weekend, oh boy, this is where things get interesting.

Thursday

Expect a cloudy and cool start with light snow in areas north of Highway 36 through the morning. This should remain mainly a dusting and anything stuck will stay under 1 inch.

In Kansas City, we should see the sun try to come out a bit through the afternoon with temperatures staying mild and in the mid to low 40s.

But that’s about it for mild temps too little. On Friday, high pressure will break in and pull in some cool air, starting a nine-day cold snap. Be aware that cold weather also includes some nasty arctic air!

Weekend

When it comes to this weekend, here are the main things I want you to be aware of:

There is some ice potential (and may affect I-70 and areas south)
There are some big snow zones possible (especially north of the metro… but the main thing is TBD)
It all comes during a really cold part of our forecast

The ice concern seems likely as this system will pull in some warm air initially.
Expect Saturday between 16-18, where a mixture of precipitation comes into focus. I think we could see some accumulating ice near the I-70 corridor and areas south.

I’m really keeping a close eye on our Kansas friends near and along I-35. So if you are in these areas, be sure to stay updated with the ice potential and how this forecast is developing. A little push north of south can make all the difference.

As we head toward sunrise Sunday, the ice potential will begin to fade and we will see the flip side of this system – the cold air and the heaviest snow potential begin to kick in.

Tracking where the low movements will be the key to where the heaviest snow will hit. The area we are watching is called the deformation zone, this is the area behind the low point where the heaviest bands of snow form. Right now it looks like it will hit by noon Sunday…but that could still change and a small shift in the low could create big ripples where the heaviest snow hits.

So right now the models are spitting out some high snow totals because they’re betting that deformation zone will hit right over Kansas City.

Some have totals in the 6-10 inch range, but right now I think it’s a safe bet to expect somewhere between 3-6 inches around the metro core.

Keep an eye on this snow forecast though as we narrow down what will hit where and when a little better. So when it comes to trying to hit that half a foot in the subway, while the models might be hinting that way, remember that forecasting is a science, and here are some things that might ground that number a bit.

The most snow we’ve ever seen in a 24-hour period is 16.1 inches back in 1912.

If we look at the most recent snow above 6 inches, it was back in the winter of 2022 when a blizzard brought 7 inches of snow to KCI. But remember, when it comes to getting a snowfall to measure at least 6 inches, it’s only happened 68 times in KC history!

That’s a very small amount when you consider that we’ve had 49,673 24-hour periods of registration. That means 6 or more inches of snow will fall 0.14% of the time.

But Cassie, it really only snows a few months a year. Well, it doesn’t change the stats. 16,557 winter days have been tracked in Kansas City, and only 68 of those have seen a “big snow,” meaning we’re still talking about less than 1% of winter days.

All that being said, this will be the biggest storm of the year or the last two years possibly and we will update you around the clock.

So be sure to follow the entire KSHB 41 weather team as we work through ice, snow and cold weather through the next week!

And remember to be nice to each other.

—