How it affects the College Football Playoff

On By Littum

Ohio State losing in a shocker against unranked rival Michigan will keep the Buckeyes out of the Big Ten Championship Game, but the team’s College Football Playoff hopes are another matter, and there’s plenty to look forward to in the next few weeks.

While we can expect Ohio State to certainly fall from its lofty perch at No. 2 in the committee rankings and from its expected no. 5 seed in the bracket, the rest of the team’s resume this season should keep the Buckeyes in the top dozen when selection day finally arrives.

How far could Ohio State fall? The loss, combined with other teams winning their games, should drop the Buckeyes to at least No. 10 position, likely still ahead of Indiana, due to their head-to-head wins over the Hoosiers and OSU’s superior overall resume.

Ohio State still has two wins against top 10 teams this season, including the dominating 38-15 decision against Indiana, and played current no. 1 Oregon for a one point loss on the road.

Considering that, combined with Indiana’s poor schedule, a goal the selection committee takes very seriously, there probably wouldn’t be much Indiana can do against Purdue in its regular-season finale to surpass Ohio State’s record total.

Some in the committee room might also argue that Ohio State should remain ranked ahead of two-loss Tennessee, as the Buckeyes beat two teams ranked higher than the Vols’ most important win of the season, against current no. 13 at Alabama, which has three losses.

Heading into the season finale, Ohio State was a nearly 20-point favorite against unranked Michigan and seemingly on cruise control to play for the Big Ten title and host a first-round playoff game.

Now it looks like the Buckeyes will have to settle for a road game to start the 12-team College Football Playoff.

Either way, head coach Ryan Day’s tenure remains under intense criticism after a lackluster performance against a Michigan team his Buckeyes were supposed to dominate, casting doubt on the school’s postseason future.

Here’s our rough forecast for how the College Football Playoff rankings and brackets could look after Michigan upset Ohio State on Saturday…

  1. Oregon
  2. Texas
  3. SMU
  4. Boise State
  5. Penn State
  6. Notre Dame
  7. Georgia
  8. Tennessee
  9. Ohio State
  10. Indiana
  11. Miami
  12. Arizona State

In this projection, Ohio State would play a first-round College Football Playoff game at Georgia between the hedges, a significant increase in difficulty from where this team stood last week.

A week ago, the Buckeyes were expected to host the No. 12 at Arizona State in the first round, a game where Ohio State would have been a more generous favorite.

Proving that even in the 12-team playoff era, what you do in the regular season still matters.

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