3 things to watch, odds and prediction

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Season series: Magic 116, Nets 101 at Orlando on Oct. 25; Tonight in Brooklyn; Dec. 1 in Brooklyn; Dec. 29 in Orlando

Our Record: 14-6/8-12 ATS

The Orlando Magic are rolling right now. They have won 10 of their last 11 games and their defense is as strong and dominant as ever.

They party at a soft spot in their schedule. And just like last year, they dominate some of the worst teams in the league. They are 10-2 against teams with sub-.500 records (only the Cleveland Cavaliers are better at 11-1).

Critics and skeptics might say this is a sign of being worried about magic. Their record is not supported by big wins yet.

Still, everyone has seen this Magic team step up when it needs to. Most of their losses came during a five-match losing streak when they were on the road and dealing with the aftermath of Paolo Banchero’s injury. The team has come a long way since then. And beating whoever is in front of you is an important skill.

The Magic will get to test that skill again in a place where they have struggled to win.

Orlando has won just four times in 21 games at Barclays Center since opening in 2012. That includes last year’s NBA Cup opener loss.

The Magic learned their lesson from that 20-point loss. This margin of defeat cost the Magic a chance to advance to the quarterfinals of the inaugural tournament. The Magic are well aware of what these games mean.

Brooklyn is coming off a stunning win in Phoenix on Wednesday to cap off a 3-1 road trip that sweeps all three games on the West Coast. The Brooklyn Nets and Los Angeles Lakers are the only two teams with top-10 offenses that the Magic have beaten. Orlando still has a lot to prove.

Brooklyn’s offense will definitely take a hit with some absences in this one. Dennis Schroder is out for personal reasons. Cam Thomas is also out with a left hamstring strain. Nic Claxton (handling lower back injuries) and Dorian Finney-Smith (left ankle sprain) are both Doubtful.

Their absence will play a big role in this game. The Nets need their veterans to survive.

3. Going Big

The Orlando Magic welcomed Wendell Carter back to the lineup Wednesday during the win over the Chicago Bulls. Coach Jamahl Mosley emphasized that the game was not about Wendell Carter’s counting stats. They just wanted to see him reintegrated with the group.

But Mosley went a bit out of line with his starting line-up. He moved Wendell Carter into the starting lineup along with Goga Bitadze. As the league gets smaller, Mosley and the Magic decided to get bigger. It’s part of a general trend of going against the grain with this team and finding success.

The question remains whether this arrangement works or not. But it worked against the Bulls.

Lineups featuring Carter and Bitadze have combined to outscore opponents 42-29 in 14 minutes in two games (almost all of them were in Wednesday’s game). The Magic shot 16 for 25 from the floor and 5 for 10 from three.

It’s just a game. But the Brooklyn Nets aren’t much stronger defensively than the Chicago Bulls. It will be interesting to see if the Magic return to this lineup a second time.

2. The veteran difference

The Brooklyn Nets were expected to be at the bottom of the standings in the Eastern Conference this year. They weren’t expected to make much of a splash or be competitive. But through the first quarter of the season, Brooklyn finds itself in the Play-In hunt.

Much of that is because of the usual reason these young teams succeed early in the season — their veterans.

If I had one takeaway from the Orlando Magic’s win over the Brooklyn Nets in the home opener, it was that the Nets had a hard time operating with a veteran point guard like Dennis Schroder on the bench.

The numbers confirm it.

The Nets have a +2.6 net rating with Dennis Schroder on the floor – and a +4.7 net rating with Nic Claxton on the floor and a +6.9 with Dorian Finney-Smith on the floor. Those three comprise most of the five players with positive net ratings on the field on this team.

Predictably, the Nets have a team-worst -9.4 net rating with Schroder off the floor and a -8.9 net rating with Finney-Smith off the floor.

Veterans make a difference. And with Schroder OUT for personal reasons and Claxton and Finney-Smth Doubtful with various injuries, the Nets could be without three of their most followed players.

1. NBA Cup math

As we enter the final two days of NBA Cup group play, the math gets complicated trying to figure out which teams will advance out of the group stage. Unlike last year, the Orlando Magic aren’t going to sit around and wait for the final day and hope they get in. The Magic still have two NBA Cup games remaining.

The simplest part of this equation is if the Orlando Magic win their next two bowl games – Friday at the Brooklyn Nets and Tuesday at the New York Knicks – they win Group A. In all likelihood, the Orlando Magic win those two games and get a home game in the quarterfinals (The Milwaukee Bucks have caught them in point differential at +29 through three games to the Magic’s +37). They could easily still win the top seed in the East.

Beyond that, the Magic are in a good position to win the wild card if they don’t win Group A. It will come down to Tuesday’s game, with only the point difference in Friday’s games determining where the Magic stand.

Orlando is 2-0 with a difference of +37 points. Only Milwaukee has a difference of +20 points at the moment. But Boston Celtics (2-1, +14), Cleveland Cavaliers (1-1, +15) threaten. They remain the top two teams in the Eastern Conference.

Still, the Magic have the inside tracks to advance in this tournament with two wins or with a close loss in one of their two remaining Cup games.