What to know about sudden rebel gains in Syria’s 13-year war and why it matters

WASHINGTON (AP) – Syria’s 13-year civil war has roared back to prominence with a surprising rebel offensive on Aleppo, one of Syria’s largest cities and an ancient business center. The push is among the rebels’ strongest in years in a war whose destabilizing effects have rippled far beyond the country’s borders.

It was the first opposition attack on Aleppo since 2016, when a brutal air campaign by Russian warplanes helped Syrian President Bashar Assad retake the northwestern city. Intervention by Russia, Iran and Iranian-allied Hezbollah and other groups has allowed Assad to remain in power within the 70% of Syria under his control.

The sharp increase in fighting has raised the prospect of another violent front reopening in the Middle East, at a time when US-backed Israel is battling Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, both Iranian-allied groups.

Robert Ford, the last acting US ambassador to Syria, pointed to months of Israeli attacks on Syrian and Hezbollah targets in the area and to Israel’s cease-fire with Hezbollah in Lebanon this week as factors allowing Syria’s rebels to advance.

Here’s a look at some of the key aspects of the new match:

Why does the fighting at Aleppo matter?

Assad has been at war with opposition forces trying to topple him for 13 years, a conflict that has killed around half a million people. Some 6.8 million Syrians have fled the country, a refugee flow that helped change the political map of Europe by fueling anti-immigrant far-right movements.

The roughly 30% of the country not under Assad is controlled by a variety of opposition forces and foreign troops. The United States has about 900 troops in northeastern Syria, far from Aleppo, to guard against a resurgence of the Islamic State. Both the US and Israel carry out occasional strikes in Syria against government forces and Iran-allied militias. Turkey also has forces in Syria and has influence with the broad alliance of opposition forces storming Aleppo.

After years of little significant change in territory between Syria’s warring parties, the fighting has “the potential to be really quite, quite consequential and potentially game-changing” if Syrian government forces prove unable to hold their ground, said Charles Lister, a longtime Syria analyst at the US-based Middle East Institute. Risks include if Islamic State fighters see it as an opening, Lister said.

Ford said the fighting in Aleppo would become more destabilizing if it drew Russia and Turkey — each with their own interests to protect in Syria — into direct, fierce fighting against each other. –

What do we know about the group leading the offensive on Aleppo?

The US and the UN have long designated the opposition force leading the attack in Aleppo – Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, known by its initials HTS – as a terrorist organization.

Its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Golani, emerged as the head of al-Qaida’s Syrian branch in 2011, during the first months of Syria’s war. His fight was an unwelcome intervention for many in Syria’s opposition, who hoped to keep the fight against Assad’s brutal rule untainted by violent extremism.

Golani early claimed responsibility for deadly bombings, vowed to attack Western forces and sent religious police to enforce modest dress for women.

Golani has sought to remake itself in recent years. He renounced his al-Qaeda ties in 2016. He has disbanded his religious police force, cracked down on extremist groups on his territory and cast himself as a protector of other religions. That includes last year allowing the first Christian mass in the city of Idlib in years.

What is the history of Aleppo in the war?

At the crossroads of trade routes and empires for thousands of years, Aleppo is one of the centers of trade and culture in the Middle East.

Aleppo was home to 2.3 million people before the war. Rebels captured the eastern side of the city in 2012, and it became the proudest symbol of the advance of armed opposition factions.

In 2016, government forces backed by Russian airstrikes besieged the city. Russian grenades, missiles and crude barrel bombs – fuel canisters or other containers filled with explosives and metal – methodically leveled neighborhoods. Starving and under siege, rebels surrendered Aleppo that year.

The entry of the Russian military was the turning point in the war, allowing Assad to stay in the territory he held.

this year, Israeli airstrikes in Aleppo have hit Hezbollah weapons depots and Syrian forces, among other targets, according to an independent monitoring group. Israel rarely acknowledges attacks on Aleppo and other government-controlled areas in Syria.