Top picks from the CFB betting divisions on Friday 29 November

Happy Black Friday! Today we have a loaded College Football slate in print with 14 games to choose from. Let’s explore where the smart money is leaning with our VSiN CFB betting splits, which are updated every 10 minutes and come straight from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

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Navy (7-3) has lost three of its last four games and just got crushed by Tulane 35-0, and has not covered as a 7.5-point home dog. On the other hand, East Carolina (7-4) is riding a four-game winning streak and just took down North Texas 40-28, winning outright as 2.5-point road dogs. This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with some shops even opening Navy listed as a short 1-point road favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them down. Despite this flat ticket count, however, we have seen the line move to East Carolina -2.5 at home. In a vacuum, a line should not move at all if the bets are even, because the oddsmakers theoretically have a balanced operation and no reason to adjust the price. So we know based on the streak that pro money has sided with the home team. East Carolina receives only 52% of spread bets, but a whopping 80% of spread dollars at DraftKings, a stark “low stakes, higher dollars” betting split. At Circa Sports, East Carolina receives 71% of spread bets but 95% of spread dollars, another wiseguy discrepancy. Those who want to follow the sharp move but are also wary of putting points in what could be a close game could choose to play East Carolina on the moneyline (-135) instead. East Carolina receives 47% of moneyline bets but 62% of moneyline dollars at DraftKings, further proof of smart money banking on ECU to win the game straight up.

Minnesota (6-5) has lost two straight but has just hung tough with Penn State, losing 26-25 but covering as 12-point home dogs. Meanwhile, Wisconsin (5-6) has lost four straight and just got rolled by Nebraska 44-25, failing to cover as 1.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Wisconsin listed as a 2-point home favorite. The crowd is excited to play Wisconsin at home, which is fighting for bowl eligibility. But despite 62% of spread bets taking Wisconsin at DraftKings, we’ve seen that line flip to Minnesota -1 on the road. This signals sharp “dog to favorite” line movement in favor of Minnesota, as the line has moved toward the Golden Gophers despite being the unpopular game. At Circa Sports, Minnesota takes 41% of spread bets but 85% of spread dollars, further evidence of the bigger, sharper pro bets backing the road team. The Golden Gophers have the better offense (26.5 PPG vs 24 PPG) and tighter defense (allowing 18.5 PPG vs 23 PPG). Sharps also expects a lower scoring game, as the total has steamed down from 44 to 40.5. Under receives only 25% of bets but 52% of dollars at DraftKings, a stark contrarian “low stakes, higher dollars” betting split. Weather may play a factor here as the forecast calls for low 20s with 15 MPH winds, making this a “winnable under” system battle. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more, sometimes about 55% over the last decade.

Stanford (3-8) has lost seven of its last eight games and fell just short against California 24-21, but managed to cover as 15-point road dogs. Likewise, San Jose State (6-5) has lost three of its last four games and just fell to UNLV 27-16, not covering as a 7.5-point home dog. This line opened with San Jose State listed as low as a pick’em. Sharps and public players have both sided with the home team, steamrolling San Jose State up to -2.5. San Jose State receives 67% of spread bets and 74% of spread dollars at DraftKings. At Circa, San Jose State receives 80% of spread bets and 94% of spread dollars. In either case, the Spartans take on “low stakes, higher dollar” Pro and Joe support. Those looking to reduce some risk around a key number could instead bet San Jose State on the moneyline at -135. At DraftKings, San Jose State takes 68% of the moneyline bets, but 83% of the moneyline dollars. Stanford is just 1-4 on the road this season. San Jose State is 4-2 at home. The Spartans have the superior offense (26.9 PPG vs 22.1 PPG) and better defense (allowing 26 PPG vs 33.6 PPG).