Movie Breakdown: About the Warriors rediscovering their defensive mojo as they run out of offensive juice against the Thunder

While the Golden State Warriors may have entered their matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder undefeated without Stephen Curry playing a single minute, the numbers with him off the floor told quite a telling — and all too familiar — story.

In 783 non-garbage time possessions, the Warriors have scored a paltry 105.7 points per 100 possessions without Curry on the floor. That would tie for the 28th-ranked offense in the NBA, per Cleaning The Glass. This has been a testament to the problem they’ve had since time immemorial: The lack of a serviceable scorer behind Curry to act as ballast when he’s on the bench, or more importantly, when he has to miss games.

That story was no different tonight against the Thunder—which meant the only way the Warriors had a chance to win against such an elite team with an elite defense (first in the league in opponent points per 100 possessions) and an elite shot creator in Shai Gilgeous— Alexander should lock down the half court and generate plenty of transition possessions. It proved to be a difficult task to start the game, with the Thunder in the first quarter able to hang 39 points to the Warriors’ 23. Those 39 points allowed translated into a horrific 150 points per 100 possessions.

The good news is that after allowing 39 points in the first quarter, the Warriors were able to hold the Thunder to just 66 points over the following three quarters. They were able to reduce the number of points allowed per 100 possessions for 104 points per 100 possessions by the end of the game – tied for the best defense in the league (tied with the Thunder’s own points allowed per 100 possessions this season). A switch was flipped on the defensive end in the form of diversified coverages, increased energy and a sense of urgency, perhaps fueled by the loss of their superstar.

That possession below at the 8:26 mark of the third quarter seemed otherwise nondescript, but the tenor of the Warriors’ second-half defense changed when Jerry Stackhouse threw a shift: full-court pressure flowed into a 2-3 zone in the half court:

Stackhouse pushed the right buttons and his players responded with effort and execution after two games where their defense fell apart in the second half. This was perhaps most evident in how they defended in scramble situations where they had to be in rotation. The Thunder – good at moving the ball around and creating good looks for everyone on the floor – saw their windows shut down almost immediately:

The golden equation for the Warriors this season — especially with this Curry-less version — was to get stops, run in transition and create offense against a non-set defense, a defense that has had plenty of success this season when set in. the half court (84.8 points allowed per 100 possessions). An easy way to take this metric out of the equation is to simply not have them defend as much as possible in the half court:

It also helps massively if they manage to get the best version of Draymond Green on the defensive end. Green’s value doesn’t just come in being a roamer and communicator on the floor — his ability to play multiple coverages, diagnose which one to play at any given time and execute accordingly is second to none. The more committed and effective he is as a defender, the more likely it is that the rest of the defensive machinery will follow his lead:

But — and this is where the bad news comes in — the Warriors were held to just 103.1 points per game. 100 possessions for the entire game, no doubt driven by the absence of Curry and the lack of a consistent secondary scorer who could create buckets (for himself and for teammates) without much schematic help. While Andrew Wiggins and Jonathan Kuminga can certainly fill that role through their ability to pressure the rim, shortcomings (such as their lack of a reliable handle) prevent them from ever fulfilling that role to the highest degree.

Kerr has had to help them get to the rim by creating downhill situations for them. For Wiggins, it was about getting him moving off the ball to create an attacking lane:

For Kuminga, it was creating situations for him where defenses are confused about what coverage they want to play. A reverse pick-and-roll creates hesitation for Gilgeous-Alexander, who doesn’t want to switch to Kuminga. This allows Kuminga to attack the rim with an open lane:

However, such instances were not enough to give the Warriors the necessary juice they needed to put away the Thunder. They went scoreless from the 5:45 mark of the fourth quarter to the 20-second mark — all while the Thunder, unable to score much themselves, were able to use Gilgeous-Alexander’s shooting talents to make the difference.

While the defensive silver lining is something to be optimistic about — and while Curry won’t be out for long as he’s expected to play against Phoenix Suns on Saturday — the Warriors will have to address the issue of not having anyone who can create scoring opportunities in a pinch besides Curry. At 36 years old and likely to have more of these sit-out situations due to aches and pains, Curry can’t handle the scoring burden all by himself. In order for the Warriors to reach the next level, they need someone who can smooth out defenses without much need for a schematic crutch.