‘Bama Basketball Breakdown: Rutgers brings a deep bench, balanced scoring and two NBA lottery picks

No time to celebrate yesterday’s huge 85-80 win over No. 4 Houston Cougars. The Tide will need to find their legs and their shooting touch again when they face Big Cliff’s old team, preseason Top 25 Rutgers. Because you only thought you were done with Big 10 basketball…

This gets a bit abbreviated: tight turn and what doesn’t happen.

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Tale of the Tape: Rutgers (4-1) vs. No. 6 Alabama (5-1)

Spread (Total): Alabama -10.5 (O/U 161.5)

Opponent KenPom: 78 (83 attack, 85 defense, 122 pace)
Opponent Evan Miya: 78 (95 attack, 73 defense, 115 pace)
Opponent Bart Torvik: 45 (45 attack, 56 defense, 149 pace)
Opponent NET: Q2
Opponent’s best win: Notre Dame (No. 72)
Opponent’s Worst Loss: No. 167 Kennesaw State (Antoine Pettway!)

Alabama KenPom: 6 (3 Attack, 37 Defense, 14 Pace)
Alabama Evan Miya: 8 (2 attack, 30 defense, 6 pace)
Alabama Bart Torvik: 7 (3 Attack, 26 Defense, 12 Pace)
NET Ranking: REACH
Best win: no. 4 Houston
Worst loss: no. 15 Purdue Like It’s “Bad”

There’s no time to pat yourself on the back, and the Crimson Tide face another team that was ranked in the preseason Top 25, this time with some personal stakes involved as ‘Bama takes on Big Cliff’s old team, the Rutgers Scarlet Knights.

Last season’s Rutgers looks almost nothing like this year’s version.

While the 2024 unit was strong in the post and played a more dominant brand of basketball, the Scarlet Knights begin 2025 in the backcourt with the No. 2 and no. 3 projected lottery picks in the next NBA draft, Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper. The pair of beginners each play a good 30 minutes per game. game and are responsible for nearly half of the Scarlet Knights’ 78 points per match. They are a slightly faster team (well above average), but no one is going to mistake them for an uptempo team.

Dylan Harper in particular has been fantastic, both as the leading scorer (22 PPG) and dishing out 5.5 assists per game. At this rate, he and Philon will duke it out for the first point guard off the board. The guards (again) are the engine that drives this train: eight of them see 10+ minutes on the floor, and they account for nearly 70% of all Rutgers scoring. Jeremiah Williams, PJ Hayes and Jordan Derkack added 11 rebounds, 3 assists and 21 points on the night.

What particularly impresses you, however, is how active the whole team is in getting after loose balls. Three shifts average over 5 boards a night and six of them have 3+. Actually their leading rebounder is SG Jordan Derkack. Despite that though, it’s a very traditional looking offense, with a true center, true PF, etc. In fact, Rutgers has three centers, they rotate heavily, with Zach Martini as the top offensive option (he can also step outside and jump it from three), and Lathan Somerville is the mauler — he leads the teams in blocks and is second in rebounds.

Still, the heart of this team is the kids, and it shows. Rutgers turns it around very18% of their assets. And as a team, they are fairly soft defenders who don’t put much pressure on the ball. They’re among the worst in the Big 10 at forcing TWOs, and as a result, they’ve given up a lot of good looks — a lot of points — from the perimeter.

It’s also not a particularly good shooting team (that goes for the free throw line, where only three guys are above 75%), despite being a fairly balanced scoreline. Rutgers needs to get there with volume, and they crank it up to reach the 80 points per possession mark. competition. Rutgers is shooting just 39.4% from the field, and is a woeful 32% from the three-point line. Any wrinkles Alabama’s backfield has had protecting opposing teams should be ironed out here. The Knights don’t shoot well, so there’s no reason to let them do it by playing soft.

The key, however, will be to stop the point and not let Ace Bailey get going at the two spot – easily the best shooter, shooting 53% from the floor and 44% from deep. But the way Harper is going, go the Scarlet Knights and almost all of these guys can get hot (especially watch out for the dangerous PJ Hayes coming off the bench as a screen-and-three shooter).

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Bottom line:

Rutgers was always going to have growing pains as a team rebuilds its identity with a freshly baked court, but so far Dylan and Ace have seen their fair share of them — even in their two-point loss to Antoine Pettway’s Kennesaw State Owls. That pair has fantastic two-man chemistry, and thrives especially with pick and roll to get penetration. Good communication will be key as the Tide defenders will need to make smart contacts.

For the first time in a long time, however, the Tide’s shooters should have some space on the floor. Rutgers is a solid team, but this is the worst defensive team that Alabama will have faced since UNC-Asheville. The Knights, in particular, struggle defending the perimeter (just 244th in effective 3PT defense), with teams shooting an adjusted 40.6% from deep. To hair to be music to the Tide’s ears after three straight weeks of pressure defense and intense swarming from the arc.

Last night, however, it looked like both teams had found their way.

For the Scarlet Knights, that identity came in the form of hitching their wagon to the Lottery Duo and driving them to an overtime victory against the Fighting Irish. For the Tide, it leaned into its role player depth and blue-collar identity while being smart about letting the offense come to them — they were pressured, but they didn’t press. The tide’s slide isn’t quite resolved, and it would be nice to see Cliff finally eat, but I suspect this is the game where we see some more pieces fall into place. Look for Labaron to bounce back, especially after a rough night against the hardest playing team in America.

Do it other-Hardest Playing Team in America: Alabama claimed that crown last night.

How to watch:

It’s late tonight, folks: Game tips at 9:00 Central on TBS. Both Alabama and Rutgers are coming off grueling overtime contests, so you can bet the extra rest is welcome.

Forecast:

We’d say a motivated Cliff and Philon, a backcourt shooting out of an early slump, and too much depth and talent all vault the Tide to a win and cover. Above all, this will be a game of maintaining focus, intensity and managing expectations. All these tough November and December competitions are being set up with one goal in mind: March success. So keeping the ego and the inflated chests and the entitlement in check will be the biggest fight tonight. It’s a test that the football team failed, and one that basketball can’t flunk if it wants to cut down all the nets.

Alabama 91 – Rutgers 75

Hoping for the best.
Roll Tide.