‘Moana 2’ heads for record $170M Thanksgiving weekend

The worst thing a studio can do on a big weekend like this is over-project. And if there’s one thing about Thanksgiving forecasts, they’re always over-projected.

Right now Disney’s Moana 2 draws up an estimate $54 million first day, including Tuesday’s Walt Disney Animation preview record $13.8M. This will coast the sequel to Dwayne Johnson-Auli’i Cravalho to at least $170 million at 4,200 theaters, easily a Thanksgiving 5-day box office opening that outstrips Disney’s own Frozen ($93.9M), as well as a film with the biggest haul over the holiday stretch, topping Frozen 2 ($125 million). The 3 days for Moana 2 is somewhere around $90M-$100M+.

Let’s just keep an eye on this: The best opening for Johnson at the domestic box office is Furious 7 to $147.1 million. in 2015.

This is Disney’s fourth blockbuster north of $100M+ domestic under the Alan Bergman team following Planet of the Apes Kingdom; From the inside out 2highest grossing film of the year; and Deadpool & Wolverine, the highest-grossing R-rated film of all time.

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Now, some rivals could easily see $200M+ during the Wednesday-Sunday period, and if Moana 2 crossing this threshold, the sequel would shatter the penetrating 5-day opening record holder The movie Super Mario Bros ($204.6 million) like a turtle. Remember the first day here too Moana 2 best the first day of that Illumination/Nintendo title at $31.7M. – but that image had no previews. Black out Moana 2‘s previews, and the surfer girl is currently at $40.2 million.

We’re not done yet…

Evil to Sunday will be at $236.9 millionarguably the best ever stateside for a movie based on a Broadway musical, buried Fat ($190 million). The 5 days Evil is estimated to $92 million. Today is $18.5 millionthe picture’s highest weekday to date, +11% during Tuesday, which will plow to a $61 million second weekend, -46% at 3,888 theaters. The production costs for both parts of Evil is $320 million before P&A.

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Paramounts Gladiator 2 of 3,580 sites sends another $6.7 million today, for another weekend of $27.3 million-50% and 5-day off $39.4 million and in total $106.6 million for $250 million feature production.

Some are getting their double dose of The Rock this weekend, also heading to Amazon MGM Studios’ Christmas specials The red one, who sees one $3 million Wednesday, $13 million third weekend, -1%, $19 million 5-day and ongoing in total $76.3 million.

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Lionsgate’s fourth weekend of The best Christmas competition ever at 1,832 locations see $950,000 today, $3.9 million over three days (+14%), 5 days $5.7 million and in total $32.8 million.

Remember, the biggest Thanksgiving five-day Wednesday-Sunday frame for all titles belongs to 2018, where Ralph breaks the internet opened for no. 1, the period accumulation $315.6 million per Comscore. Looks like we can easily eclipse that benchmark.

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