Battle 4 Atlantis Preview: Louisville vs. Indiana

Louisville Cardinals (3-1) vs. Indiana Hoosiers (4-0)

Battle 4 Atlantis Quarterfinals

Playing time: Dinner

Location: Imperial Arena: Paradise Island, Bahamas

Television: ESPN

Announcers: Beth Mowins (play-by-play) and Debbie Antonelli (analyst)

Favorite: Indiana with 2.5

Series: Indiana leads 12-9

Last meeting: Indiana won 74-66 on November 20, 2023 in the Empire Classic 3rd place in Brooklyn

History of the series:

Expected starting lineups:

Louisville

• G Chucky Hepburn (6-2, 190, Sr.)
• G J’Vonne Hadley (6-6, 215, 5th)
• G/F Terrence Edwards Jr. (6-6, 205, 5.)
• F Noah Waterman (6-11, 230, 6.)
• C James Scott (6-11, 220, So.)

Indiana

• G Myles Rice (6-3, 185, R-So.)
• G Kanaan Carlyle (6-3, 182, So.)
• F Mackenzie Mgbako (6-9, 222, So.)
• F Malik Reneau (6-9, 232, Jr.)
• C Oumar Ballo (7-0, 265, R-Sr.)

Statistics:

Relevant videos:

Indiana’s season to date:

About Indiana:

It’s year four of the Mike Woodson era in Bloomington, and it feels like a make-or-break season when it comes to whether the IU alum is the right man to lead the Hoosiers back to what they believe is their rightful. place near the top of the college basketball food chain.

Expectations are sky high that the “make” part of that equation can be cashed in thanks to the return of a handful of the most productive players from last season’s disappointing squad and the addition of some of the highest-rated players on the transfer portal.

The 14th-ranked Hoosiers have cruised to a 4-0 start, but have looked disjointed at various points against a quartet of teams that didn’t provide much of a challenge.

Leading the way for IU has been former Louisville recruit Mackenzie Mgbakowho is off to a flying start after somewhat of a disappointing freshman campaign. The versatile 6’9 forward is averaging 18.8 ppg and scored a career-high 31 in the team’s season-opening win over SIU Edwardsville. Mgbako has been the team’s best three-point shooter so far this season (53.3 percent) and has also been a monster on the offensive glass. Expect J’Vonne Hadley to be the man tasked with trying to slow down the super-talented sophomore and prevent him from creating another chance for himself and others.

Washington State transfer guard Myles Rice has been tasked with running the show and has done so successfully up to this point. He has scored 20 or more points in each of IU’s last two games and has dished out a total of 18 assists. Rice, like a handful of guys on this IU team, has struggled a bit with turnovers (3.3 per game) this season, prompting Woodson to pair him up more Trey Galloway recently to have multiple distributors on the floor at the same time and allow Rice to focus more on scoring than running the show. Galloway is less of a scoring threat, but he leads the team in assists with 5.3 per game. match.

Arizona big man transfer Omar Ballo was Woodson’s biggest offseason addition, both figuratively and literally. The 7-foot senior has 34 career double-doubles and is the elite rim protector and back to the basket scorer that Louisville so clearly lacks this season. He pairs with the 6’9 junior Malik Reneau (13.5 ppg) to create arguably the toughest frontcourt Louisville will face this season.

Ballo is currently averaging a career-high in minutes, and with Indiana set to play three games in three days, it will be interesting to see if Woodson tries to shift some lineups, with Reneau occupying the five while Ballo gets a little longer rest.

Louisville and Indiana are as close to exact opposites as you will find in this tournament. Case in point: IU has shot the three well this season, but they haven’t shot it often. While they hit the outside shot at a 35.7 percent clip, just 30.4 percent of their field goal attempts come from beyond the arc. That’s the 343rd ranked ratio out of 364 DI teams. Louisville is shooting just 29.4 percent from three, but is taking a higher percentage of its shots from deep than all but one team in the country.

Indiana has a clear advantage when it comes to size and physicality. If the Hoosiers execute accordingly, they should be able to consistently score around the rim without a ton of resistance from a Louisville team that has struggled with interior defense against MUCH smaller foes.

U of L should and probably will be able to speed up the game. Indiana is currently playing at a faster pace (85th in pace) than they ever did under Woodson. A high possession game with a high number of live ball turnovers and transition opportunities should open the door for a Louisville upset.

There are three primary reasons for optimism here:

1) Indiana struggles with turnovers and Louisville thrives when it comes to turning teams over. The Cardinals arrive in the Bahamas ranked fourth in the nation in opponent turnover percentage and will immediately face a team that gives the ball away on 18.9 percent of their offensive possessions. Chucky Hepurn is fourth in the country in steals per game. battle and can make life miserable for the Hoosier guards.

2) Indiana hasn’t been great on the defensive glass. Neither has Louisville, but that is a concern on the other end of the floor. Pat Kelsey loves to crash five guys on the offensive glass, and in this game that’s the philosophy should result in a number of opportunities for a second chance.

3) Louisville should get an open look from the outside. Challenging IU on the edge probably won’t end well for most guys on U of L’s roster. Fortunately, the Hoosiers have struggled with the perimeter defense fairly consistently through the opening weeks of the season. In the half court, U of L’s versatile forwards and bigs should be able to draw Indiana’s interior defenders out of their comfort zone, which should result in open looks from the outside. I know it’s hard for a lot of people to accept, but this is a game where if the cards have 45 good looks from three, they have to try all 45 of them.

Everyone says it with me: I have to make shots.

An important note here is that this game is just as important to Indiana as it is to Louisville. While the Cardinals need to stack up quality wins (and position themselves to play quality opponents for the rest of the tournament) due to the ACC’s lack of success so far this season, the Hoosiers need to do so due to the lack of pop on their no – conference schedule. IU has already dispatched an average South Carolina, but now has no other scheduled non-con games remaining against teams ranked in the top 80 on KenPom (outside of Louisville).

Indiana fans have been frustrated at times with their team’s lack of effort and focus so far this season. You wouldn’t think something like this would be a problem in a game of this magnitude. If it is, Louisville must benefit. The Cardinals probably aren’t more talented top to bottom than this Hoosier team, but overcoming them would go a long way toward getting the most significant win of the young Kelsey era to date.

Remarkable:

– In its history, Louisville has 31 regular-season tournament championships. The Cardinals have lost five consecutive regular-season tournament games after going 0-3 at the 2022 Maui Invitational and 0-2 at last year’s Empire Classic.

—Louisville has a 6-2 record in Battle 4 Atlantis and is 4-2 in tournament games played in the Bahamas. The Cardinals made the championship game in both of their previous appearances: U of L lost to Duke in the 2012 title game and to Baylor in the 2016 title game.

—Louisville enters Battle 4 Atlantis ranked sixth in the nation in three-point attempts per game. game (34.0), seventh in turnovers forced per games (19.0) and 14th in turnover margin (6.8).

—Louisville has 11 players who were on teams that played in the 2024 NCAA Tournament. The roster has made a total of 14 NCAA Division I Tournament appearances at their former schools, playing in 20 NCAA Tournament games across their careers.

—Louisville has a 254-80 record against non-conference opponents over the last 23 seasons (including postseason).

-Indiana doesn’t have a mascot. Isn’t that strange? Have you ever thought about it?

-Louisville is 2-4 in neutral site games against Indiana.

—As a head coach, Pat Kelsey is 0-13 against opponents ranked in the AP top 25 poll. He is 0-1 in such games at Louisville. Indiana is currently ranked No. 14 in the vote.

— The winner of Battle 4 Atlantis has won the NCAA Championship on two occasions: the Villanova Wildcats in 2017-18 and the Virginia Cavaliers in 2018-19.

-Louisville is 221-15 over the last 21 seasons and 2-0 this season when scoring 80 or more points.

-Louisville is 14-0 over the past 10 seasons when he has limited opponents to no more than one three-point field goal.

— Since 2004, Louisville is 130-0 when leading by more than 10 points at halftime.

-Louisville is 115-0 all-time when scoring 100 or more points in non-overtime games.

-Louisville has won 163 straight games when holding an opponent under 50 points.

Ken Pomeroy Prediction: Indiana 77, Louisville 73