Winter storm hits the region

Models agree that the core of this system will slide offshore and likely generate some strong northeasterly winds and become a nor’easter. However, warmer ocean temperatures will bring rain to Greater Boston and most of Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Connecticut.

Some snow or a wintry mix is ​​expected across the higher elevations of Western Mass. and definitely north. Elevation will play a big role in terms of snow with this system as the coast and valleys will be just too warm.

A winter storm watch has been issued for parts of Vermont, interior parts of New Hampshire and southern Maine from early Thursday through Friday morning. Heavy, wet snow is expected in the higher ground and foothills, reaching as high as 8 inches for some areas.

This storm system, which developed a few days ago in the eastern Rockies, is traveling along a very active jet stream for this time of year that has been pushed further south. When it spans in this way, the upper-level air moves at different speeds, often creating air holes. Low pressure systems at the surface consist of rising air that fills the void in the upper atmosphere, thus ‘plugging’ into the jet stream and typically moving across the land where the jet stream is located. And New England is a direct target.

The latest guidance favors the core of the storm tracking just off the mid-Atlantic coast and passing closely past southern New England and into the Gulf of Maine – technically classify this system as a nor’easter. But the storm will avoid turning into a large-scale blizzard regardless of the exact track. A cutoff lava to the north should influence the storm to move more freely to the east. This will likely move the storm fairly quickly, packing modest power by blowing the storm out.

Scattered showers will begin falling early Thanksgiving morning across western New England and increase and spread across the region as the morning progresses. The wet weather will continue through the evening until tapering off late Thursday night into Friday morning.

The atmosphere will carry a decent amount of moisture to this system, but most of the snow will fall at higher elevations across New England. The valleys and coastal areas will stick to just rain for this storm. That said, the rain-snow line is likely to establish itself along the Massachusetts and New Hampshire/Vermont borders, extending diagonally from the Berkshires, through northern Worcester County into southern New Hampshire and coastal Maine. Essentially west of Interstate I-191 and north of Route 2.

Southern New England weather forecast

The latest rain-snow line trend has the line closer to the Massachusetts-Vermont/New Hampshire border, and perhaps a push further north. I expect a likely scenario of between half an inch to 1½ inches of rain across southern New England. There will be pockets of heavier downpours mixed into this system, which could lead to one area seeing much less or more rain overall than neighboring cities.

Gusty winds will spread across most of southern New England with gusts of 30 to 40 miles per hour for some areas on Thanksgiving. With warm air blowing in from the ocean, this is another factor that will limit snow potential.

Boston: About an inch of rain is expected in Greater Boston along with windy conditions with this system.

Western Fair: The higher elevations of Western Mass. could see 2 to 4 inches of snow if timing and temperature align. Mounts Greylock and Everett could see slightly higher snow totals in the Berkshires.

Rhode Island: The Ocean State is also in line for a severe rain event with rounds of precipitation starting to fall around sunrise. Rain intensity will vary from light rain to heavier bursts. Most of the day will be spent with rain until it ends around mid-evening. All told, Providence, Pawtucket, Cranston, North Smithfield and south to Newport could all see rainfall ranging from about an inch to a little over in some places. The southern shore of Rhode Island could see wind gusts up to 20 miles per hour or higher in the afternoon.

Northern New England weather forecast

Northern New England, especially across ski areas in Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine, should see a decent shot of snow on Thursday. About 2 to 4 inches is expected for central and northern parts of Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine. Higher elevations mixed in between can push a little higher and land between 6 and 8 inches with some spots even topping 10 inches. Southern and coastal parts of northern New England should stick to rain with a few glimpses of a wintry mix overnight as temperatures drop.

New Hampshire Mountains: The White Mountains north of Concord will likely see accumulating snowfall for most or all of the duration of the storm. The higher the altitude, the higher the snow is accumulated with lots of moisture in the atmosphere. Plymouth, Lincoln, Franconia and Berlin could see snowfall totals between 2 and 8 inches. Precipitation will begin mid-morning and last through Friday morning.

New Hampshire South and Coast: Concord to Manchester should see a mainly rain event with possibly a wintry mix at times. Derry, Nashua, Exeter and Portsmouth should see mostly rain with some gusts to 30 miles per hour. Overall, rainfall should reach between 0.75 and 1 inch. The rain should begin to fall around mid-morning, with most of the rain ending Thursday night.

Vermont: About 2 to 4 inches are expected for central and northern parts of Vermont.

Regardless of how this storm plays out as it pushes into New England on Thursday, you’ll want to make sure you take extra time on the roads and don’t rush to your destination. This system’s snowfall, like last week’s snowfall in New York, will be dependent on elevation.

Temperatures are sure to drop and get colder and colder from Thursday into the weekend. Colder air will filter in behind the system as it moves through New England on Thursday. Highs will likely only reach the mid to upper 40s in southern New England.

Black Friday will likely see temperatures barely reach the mid-40s in some places. Mornings get much colder as shoppers head out before sunrise to score some early holiday deals.

Behind the passage system Thursday, a deep pocket of high pressure will push south from Canada and deliver a shot of arctic air over New England, sending high temperatures into the 30s by Sunday.

These upcoming storms, combined with 1 to 3 inches of rainfall from late last week, are expected to help ease the severe drought conditions following an unusually dry fall — on Nov. 17, Boston broke a 110-year record for its driest fall. Months of high pressure dominated the region, leading to extremely dry conditions throughout New England and an unprecedented number of wildfires in Massachusetts.

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Ken Mahan can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him on Instagram @kenmahantheweatherman.