Ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon expected ‘within hours’

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Welcome back to World Brief, where we look at the details of a 60-day ceasefire proposal between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanonthe killing of a rabbi in United Arab Emiratesand an emergency NATO-Ukraine session to address Russian threats.

‘We think we have a deal’

The Israeli cabinet will vote on Tuesday on a ceasefire proposal with the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly approved the agreement “in principle” late Sunday. The US-backed deal would establish a 60-day ceasefire, involve the withdrawal of the Israeli military and Hezbollah from southern Lebanon, and deploy regular Lebanese army troops to the border region within two months, effectively creating a buffer zone south of the Litani River.

Welcome back to World Brief, where we look at the details of a 60-day ceasefire proposal between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanonthe killing of a rabbi in United Arab Emiratesand an emergency NATO-Ukraine session to address Russian threats.

‘We think we have a deal’

The Israeli cabinet will vote on Tuesday on a ceasefire proposal with the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly approved the agreement “in principle” late Sunday. The US-backed deal would establish a 60-day ceasefire, involve the withdrawal of the Israeli military and Hezbollah from southern Lebanon and deploy regular Lebanese army troops to the border region within two months, effectively creating a buffer zone south of the Litani River.

An agreement could be announced “within hourssaid Israeli Ambassador to the United States Mike Herzog. Details are still being negotiated; said the Lebanese deputy speaker of the parliament, Elias Bou Saab Reuters that “no serious obstacles” remain to begin implementation.

Diplomacy has largely focused on restoring UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the Israel-Hezbollah war in 2006 by establishing the 75-mile Blue Line, a de facto border between Israel and Lebanon. Negotiators hope such an agreement will allow hundreds of thousands of citizens on both sides to return to their homes after heavy bombardment forced them to flee.

Following pressure from Netanyahu to cement Israel’s right to self-defense in the cease-fire agreement, the US proposal reportedly agreed to give Israel assurances that include the right to military action against imminent threats and to disrupt the establishment of a Hezbollah presence or heavy weapons smuggling near the border.

US President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron are expected to announce the ceasefire on Tuesday if it is approved. “We think we have a deal,” a US official said Axiosadding: “We’re at the finish line, but we haven’t crossed it yet. The Israeli cabinet has to approve the deal on Tuesday, and something can always go wrong until then.”

Despite ceasefire talks nearing a conclusion, cross-border attacks between Israeli and Hezbollah forces have continued – and some experts concern that one wrong move could boost the dialogue. On Saturday, an Israeli attack on Beirut killed more than 29 people and wounded more than 65 others. This was reported by three Israeli defense officials New York Times that the attack was aimed at assassinating a top Hezbollah military commander, Mohammad Haidar, although an official said Haidar was not killed.

In response, Hezbollah fired about 250 projectiles at Israel on Sunday in one of the largest airstrikes against the country in the past year. On Monday, Hezbollah fired another 40 rockets at northern Israel. More than 3,700 Lebanese have been killed and a further 15,000 injured since fighting between Israel and Hezbollah resumed with the start of the Israel-Hamas conflict last October.

“We have a real opportunity to end the conflict. The window is now,” US special envoy for the Middle East Amos Hochstein said last week. But a ceasefire agreement, he said, is ultimately “the decision of the parties involved”.

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The world this week

Tuesday 26 November: NATO-Ukraine Council meets to discuss Russia’s new hypersonic ballistic missile.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz hosts Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov in Berlin.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte visits Athens.

Canada’s Nova Scotia province holds snap elections.

Wednesday 27 November: Namibia holds parliamentary elections.

Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson hosts leaders from the Nordic and Baltic countries.

Italy ends its hosting of the Mediterranean Dialogue.

Thursday 28 November: Kazakhstan hosts the summit of the Collective Security Treaty Organization.

Nigerian President Bola Ahmed Tinubu begins a two-day visit to Paris.

Friday, November 29: Ireland holds general elections.

Saturday 30 November: Iceland holds early parliamentary elections.

Sunday 1 December: Romania holds parliamentary elections.

Monday 2 December: Netanyahu testifies on charges of fraud, breach of trust and bribery.

Biden begins a three-day trip to Angola.

What we follow

‘Anti-Semitic terrorist act.’ The authorities of the United Arab Emirates arrested three Uzbek citizens on Monday in connection with the killing of an Israeli Moldovan rabbi. The body of Zvi Kogan, 28, was discovered on Sunday after Kogan went missing in Dubai last Thursday. Kogan was Abu Dhabi representative for Chabad Lubavitch, a worldwide religious movement within Hasidic Judaism. The UAE’s interior ministry offered no motive for Kogan’s death, but an Israeli foreign ministry official said he was killed “because of who he was.”

“The murder of an Israeli citizen and Chabad emissary is an abominable, anti-Semitic act of terrorism” Netanyahu said on Sunday, vowing to use any means necessary to bring the suspects to justice. Anti-Semitic attacks have increased since the Israel-Hamas war broke out last year, including a recent attack on hundreds of Israeli soccer fans in Amsterdam this month.

At the same time, an official in the Israeli Foreign Ministry said that Kogan’s death would not deteriorate bilateral relations with the UAE. “If anything, we will only use this event to further and deepen our cooperation with our Emirati counterparts,” the Israeli official said. Israel and the UAE established formal diplomatic relations in 2020 with the signing of the Abraham Accords.

Missile talks. NATO and Ukraine will hold one emergency meeting on Tuesday to discuss Russia’s recent use of a new hypersonic ballistic missile. Moscow launched the experimental medium-range Oreshnik weapon at a Ukrainian military facility in Dnipro last Thursday in response to the US and UK giving Kiev permission to use their long-range missile systems against limited targets deep inside Russia.

The conflict is entering a decisive phase, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on Friday. Russian President Vladimir Putin claims that Western air defense systems cannot stop the Oreshnik weapon, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Kyiv is already working on new systems to counter it.

These escalations follow Putin formally lowering the Kremlin’s nuclear threshold last week in a direct warning to NATO members. Under the new policy, any aggression against Moscow by a member of a military alliance would be considered “an aggression from the entire bloc.”

Climate finance. The United Nations Climate Change Conference (known as COP29) adopted an annual financial target of $300 billion in Baku, Azerbaijan, on Sunday to help developing countries deal with climate change.

“Developing countries are responsible for a disproportionately small share of global greenhouse gas emissions, yet they face the brunt of climate change impacts, often with fewer tools to cope,” FP’s Christina Lu reported. Sunday’s agreement marks a large increase from a previous commitments of $100 billion annually by 2020, and it forms the basis for next year’s summit to be held in Brazil’s Amazon rainforest.

Although some delegates welcomed the agreement, many countries said the policy did not go far enough. “I am sorry to say that this document is nothing more than an optical illusion,” said Indian delegation representative Chandni Raina. Despite delegates increasing funding by $200 billion annually, some economists have argue that the target does not take inflation into account and falls far short of what developing countries need, which they calculate to be on 1.3 trillion dollars per year.

The agreement also failed to describe how the countries will act on last year’s pledge to move away from fossil fuels and triple renewable energy capacity by 2030.

Odds and ends

Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte is taking no chances. On Saturday, she announced that she has hired an assassin to kill Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos “Bongbong” Jr., his wife and House Speaker Martin Romualdez if she herself is killed.

Her lawyer has since tried to walk back her comments as simple concern over an unspecified threat to Duterte’s life, but authorities have already referred the situation to an elite presidential guard “for immediate proper action” while beefing up Bongbong’s security. On Monday, the President described Duterte’s threat as a criminal plot and vowed to fight back.