How Georgia’s run to the SEC title creates a boom-or-bust scenario

Georgia made its fourth run in the tournament championship after a wild Saturday upset in the SEC.

The Bulldogs, projected by ESPN to be the No. 7 in the next CFP rankings when they are released Tuesday night will play the winner of next Saturday’s Texas at Texas A&M Game in the SEC Championship Game at 16.00 on 7 December at Mercedes. -Benz Stadium.

The winner of the SEC Championship Game will play at 8:45 p.m. on Jan. 1 in the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans against the winner of the first-round CFP playoff game and bypass the first-round CFP game (Dec. 20-21).

The CFP regulations state the winners of the four Power 4 conference championship games — Big Ten, SEC, ACC and Big 12, along with the highest-ranked conference championship game winner from the Group of Five (currently Boise State of the Mountain West) — are guaranteed berths in the 12-team college football playoff field.

The top four CFP-ranked teams out of those conference championship game winners will receive first-round byes and play until Dec. 31/Jan. 1.

The exciting news for Bulldogs’ fans that they will see their team in the SEC Championship Game comes with an important caveat: If Georgia loses the SEC title game, there is a chance it will be left out of the 12-team playoff field.

But first, what happened to set the wheels in motion for this rapid change in postseason prospects.

Georgia started the day high enough in the CFP rankings (No. 10) and needed only to beat UMass and Georgia Tech to clinch a spot in the 12-team College Football Playoff without even playing in the SEC Championship Game.

But then the perils of SEC road games kicked in, and Ole Miss upset Florida (24-17), Alabama upset Oklahoma (24-3) and Texas A&M upset Auburn (43- 41, 4 OT) .

And suddenly, Georgia and Tennessee were the last two 2-loss teams standing in the SEC, with Texas still atop the SEC with one loss after finishing its friendly with a home win over Kentucky.

Just like that, the Bulldogs found themselves in this feast-or-famine situation.

If Georgia wins the SEC Championship Game over the winner of next Saturday’s matchup between the Longhorns and Aggies — regardless of what happens against Georgia Tech — the Bulldogs will receive the glorious first-round bye and the trip to the Sugar Bowl.

If Georgia beats the Yellow Jackets and loses the SEC Championship game, it will join a cluster of three-loss SEC teams that includes the Rebels and Crimson Tide — two teams that beat the Bulldogs head-to-head — and present a very uncertain scenario.

Ironically, an impressive win over Georgia Tech could have enough value to overcome those head-to-head losses after the Yellow Jackets upset Miami two weeks ago.

The CFP committee will also likely factor in that UGA’s losses to Alabama and Ole Miss were both on the road, which has proven to be more of a factor than ever in the SEC with the league’s increased level of parity this season.

The CFP committee has also said it will consider how teams play in their respective championship games before settling its final rankings on Dec. 8, which will set the stage for the 12-team playoff.

That means a close loss in the SEC Championship game might not be quite as damaging — after all, the other three-loss teams didn’t have the burden of an extra conference game.

There would be a quick turnaround for the loser of the SEC Championship Game should it reach the 12-team CFP field — first-round games take place on the teams’ campuses on the 20th-21st. December.

Here’s how ESPN is projecting the next set of CFP rankings — which offers some insight but is pretty contentious because the outcome of the SEC Championship Game will ultimately throw a wrench into how things will actually end:

1. Oregon (11-0)

2. Ohio State (10-1)

3. Texas (10-1)

4. Penn State (10-1)

5. Notre Dame (10-1)

6. Miami (10-1)

7. Georgia (9-2)

8. Tennessee (9-2)

9. SMU (10-1)

10. Boise State (10-1)

11. Indiana (10-1)

12. Alabama (8-3)

13. Ole Miss (8-3)

14. South Carolina (8-3)

15. Texas A&M (8-3)

16. Clemson (9-2)

17. Arizona State (9-2)

18. BYU (9-2)

19. Tulane ((9-2)

20. Colorado (8-3)

21. Iowa State (9-2)

22. UNLV (9-2)

23. Missouri (8-3)

24. Illinois (8-3)

25. The Army (10-1)

Other conference races

Big Ten

Oregon has clinched a spot in the Big Ten title game (and likely the CFP field), and will play Ohio State if the Buckeyes beat Michigan. Penn State would play Oregon if Ohio State loses to Michigan and it wins at home against Maryland next Saturday.

acc

SMU has clinched a spot in the ACC title game — but likely not a spot in the CFP field — and will play Miami if the Hurricanes win at Syracuse. If Miami loses, Clemson will play in the ACC title game.

BIG 12

The Big 12 has the messiest situation with Arizona State, BYU, Colorado and Iowa State in a four-way tie.

Arizona State and Iowa State will play in the Big 12 Championship Game if all four teams win next week: Iowa State vs. Kansas State, BYU vs. Houston, Arizona State vs. Arizona and Colorado vs. Oklahoma State.

GROUP OF FIVE

Boise State will play in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game after hosting Pac-12 member Oregon State next Friday. The Broncos will play either Colorado State or UNLV – whichever is ranked higher in the CFP rankings – Colorado State hosts Utah State on Friday and UNLV welcomes Nevada on Saturday.

Army will play Tulane in the AAC Championship Game on Dec. 6 and then, in a bizarre twist, face Navy on Dec. 14 — after the final CFP rankings are released. If Boise State wins, it is highly unlikely that the winner of the AAC title will skip it. But if Boise State loses and Tulane impressively beats Army, it has an outside chance to move past the Broncos or UNLV (assuming UNLV is the team to play and beat Boise State) for the group of five.

CFP PLAYOFF SCHEDULE

FIRST ROUND

20 Dec

Teams must be decided at 8 p.m. (ABC/ESPN)

December 21

Teams must be determined at 12.00 (TNT Sports)

Teams must be determined at 16.00 (TNT Sports

Teams must be decided at 8 p.m. (ABC/ESPN)

CFP QUARTERFINALS

31 December

Fiesta Bowl, 7:30 p.m. (ESPN) at Glendale, Ariz.

1 January

Peach Bowl, 6 p.m. 1 p.m. (ESPN) in Atlanta

Rose Bowl, at 5:00 PM (ESPN) in Pasadena, California.

Sugar Bowl, 8:45 p.m. (ESPN) at New Orleans

CFP SEMI-FINALS

January 9

Orange Bowl, 7:30 p.m. (ESPN) at Miami Gardens

January 10

Cotton Bowl, 7:30 p.m. (ESPN) at Arlington, Texas

CFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP

20 January, Mercedes-Benz Stadium at 7:30 p.m. (ESPN) in Atlanta