2024 NFL Week 12 Betting – Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns Picks, Odds, Lines

On By Littum

November 21, 2024, 9:10 a.m. ET

Week 12 of the NFL slate kicks off with an AFC North matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers (8-2) and Cleveland Browns (2-8) on “Thursday Night Football” (8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video).

The Steelers sit atop the division and are coming off a big win at home against the Baltimore Ravens and have won five in a row overall. Meanwhile, the Browns are languishing in last place in the North, having just been obliterated by the Saints in New Orleans.

With a win Thursday, the Steelers would improve to 9-2 and record a 21st straight season with a .500 or better winning percentage. That would match the longest streak in NFL history, also accomplished by the Dallas Cowboys from 1965 to 1985. Pittsburgh hasn’t finished with a losing record since 2003, the year before the team drafted Ben Roethlisberger.

Russell Wilson is 3-0 in his career against the Browns, including wins with both the Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos. He has an overall QBR of 89.5 against Cleveland, his highest against a single opponent in his career and the highest mark by any QB against Cleveland since ESPN introduced the metric in 2006.

Odds current as of time of publication, courtesy of ESPN BET

Game lines

Spread: Steelers -3.5 (opened Steelers -3.5, moved to -4, currently -3.5)
Moneyline: Steelers -190, Browns +160
Over/Under: 36.5 (open 36.5)

Notice in the first half: Steelers -2.5 (-115), Browns +2.5 (-115)
Steelers total points: 20.5 (Over +100/Under -135)
Brown’s total points: 16.5 (Over -105/Under -125)

The props

Passed

Jameis Winston Total Passing Yards: 224.5 (Over +115/Under -145)
Winston Total Passing TDs: 1.5 (Over +120/Under -155)
Russell Wilson Total Passing Yards: 174.5 (Over -155/Under +120)
Wilson’s total passing TDs: 1.5 (Over +120/Under -155)

Hating

Nick Chubb Total Rushing Yards: 49.5 (Over -135/Under +100)
Najee Harris Total Rushing Yards: 69.5 (Over -110/Under -120)
Jaylen Warren total rushing yards: 34.5 (Over -130/Under +100)

Receiver

George Pickens’ total receiving yards: 59.5 (Over -110/Under -120)
Jerry Jeudy receiving yards total: 44.5 (Over -130/Under +100)
Cedric Tillman receives in total: 44.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
Elijah Moore Total Yards: 34.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
David Njoku total receiving yards: 44.5 (Over -125/Under -105)

Anita Marks’ pick: Steelers -4

When the Browns lose, they lose by a lot, as they have eight losses by four points or more. They are also 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against Pittsburgh and 1-4 at home this season. Mike Tomlin is good on the road and has an 8-2 ATS record. The Steelers are deep and playing for the division, the Browns season is pretty much over.

George Pickens Over 56.5 Total Receiving Yards (-110), Anytime TD Score (+155)

Browns defense is terrible against no. 1 wide receivers, allowing 10 yards per attempt. Cleveland has allowed six touchdowns to wide receivers in the last four games. On the other hand, Pickens has at least 74 yards receiving in all four games with Wilson at QB.

Betting trends

Courtesy of ESPN Research

  • The Steelers are 8-2 ATS this season and are tied for the best mark in the NFL this season. They are 18-9 ATS over the past two seasons, second best to the Lions.

  • The Steelers have covered five straight games, tied for their longest single-season covering streak in the Mike Tomlin era.

  • The Steelers are 4-1 ATS on the road this season and 15-7 ATS on the road since 2022. The Browns are 1-4 ATS at home this season.

  • The Browns have covered four straight games on short rest and are 7-2 ATS in that role under Kevin Stefanski.

  • Steelers are 13-7 ATS in their last 20 games as a favorite. They are also 15-6 ATS in November or later since 2022.

  • The over/under of 35.5 is tied for the lowest of any game this season. Within this week, six games have had totals below 37, and three of those six included the Steelers.

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