College Football Playoff 2024 – Week 13 bubble clock

For all the talk about the 12-team College Football Playoff being a cross-SEC-Big Ten invitational, consider that with one loss, Boise State is now in the same club as Oregon, Texas and Miami — able to earn a first – round bye as one of the four highest-placed conference champions.

This 13-member CFP selection committee has put a premium on who teams lost to as well as who they beat, and Boise State’s narrow loss to No. 1 Oregon looks far better than BYU’s recent six-loss upset loss to Kansas.

What does this mean for the Big 12? And is there anything Georgia can do to move up if a win against Tennessee didn’t?

Here are three takeaways from the third seeding, followed by a look at eight more teams that could come into play and how the Group of 5 race holds up.

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What we learned
Last two in | The first four out
Next four out | Group of 5

What we learned

Georgia is on solid ground, but without a home game in the first round

The Bulldogs have number 1 in the country, and are no. 3 in ESPN’s strength of record, meaning the average CFP contender has only an 11.4% chance of achieving the same 8-2 record against the same opponents. Georgia has defeated three CFP top 25 teams, including No. 3 Texas, no. 11 Tennessee and no. 17 Clemson. But it’s still not enough to overcome head-to-head losses to Alabama and Ole Miss. That means Georgia is ranked too low to be seeded 5-8 and earn a home game in the first round. With games remaining against UMass and Georgia Tech, it’s unlikely that would change — unless the teams above them lose.

The ACC is in a better position than the Big 12

With no. 13 SMU in front of no. 14 BYU, the winner of the ACC championship looks to be in good shape to earn a first-round bye. If SMU beats Miami, it would be a top-10 win on the most important day of the season — in the committee’s eyes — to put an end to a resume that could use a boost. SMU is ahead of BYU despite losing to the Cougars, which is problematic for the Big 12. No. 16 Colorado, no. 21 Arizona State and no. 22 Iowa State is still in contention for the conference championship along with BYU. While the Big 12 title game will feature two ranked opponents, it won’t be as impressive as the ACC winner, which could leave the Big 12 champion stuck behind Boise State and out of a first-round bye.

The Group of 5 race runs deeper than Boise State

Boise State has been the frontrunner all season, but what if the Broncos lose in the Mountain West Conference championship game? 19 Army moved up five places and is just ahead of no. 20 Tulane. These teams will meet in the American Athletic Conference championship game, and Army still has a chance to beat Notre Dame. If Boise State loses and Army adds wins against Notre Dame and Tulane, the Black Knights could earn a spot in the CFP, although it would be highly unlikely that they would get a first-round bye. Tulane could do the same, even though it has two losses — to Oklahoma and Kansas State — and its best remaining chance to impress the committee will be in the AAC title game.

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The last two in

no. 11 seed Georgia Bulldogs (8-2)

Why should they be worried: After beating Tennessee, the Bulldogs can shift their concern from making the playoffs to earning a first-round bye or a home game. If Georgia doesn’t reach the SEC title and get a boost in the rankings soon, its first playoff appearance will be on the way.

ESPN Analytics says: Georgia only has a 17% chance of getting a first-round bye, but a 60% chance of making the quarterfinals.

no. 12 seed BYU Cougars (9-1)

Why should they be worried: Colorado. Forget the first round bye. BYU has to worry about winning its conference, period, and Colorado looks good. If the Cougars don’t win the conference, it’s likely they won’t make the playoffs.

ESPN Analytics says: BYU’s chances to make the playoffs dropped 20 percentage points after the loss to Kansas and are now 39%. Colorado has a 36% chance of reaching the CFP.

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The first four out

Tennessee Volunteers (8-2)

Best win: Oct. 18 vs. Alabama, 24-17
Toughest remaining match: Nov. 30 at Vanderbilt

The Vols were the no. 11 in the latest rankings, but was bumped out of the bracket because BYU needed a spot as the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion. The safest place to be in the committee’s ranking list is 1-10.

Chance to Make Conference Championship Game: 0.3%

SMU Mustangs (9-1)

Best win: Nov. 2 vs. Pitt, 48-25
Toughest remaining match: Saturday in Virginia

SMU overcame the head-to-head loss to BYU and will clinch a spot in the ACC title game with a win at Virginia on Saturday. If SMU can beat Miami and win the ACC, it should jump high enough to earn a first-round bye after a top-10 win.

Chance to Make Conference Championship Game: 95.5%

Colorado Buffaloes (8-2)

Best win: Nov. 9 at Texas Tech, 41-27
Toughest remaining match: Saturday in Kansas

The Buffaloes have a great chance here that they can reach the Big 12 title and win it. Colorado will clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game Saturday with a win at Kansas and losses by Arizona State (vs. BYU) and Iowa State (at Utah). There’s only a 9% chance of all that happening, according to ESPN Analytics.

Chance to Make Conference Championship Game: 70.3%

Clemson Tigers (8-2)

Best win: November 16 at Pitt, 24-20
Toughest remaining match: November 30 vs. South Carolina

The two-loss Tigers are only here because of the slim chance they can still win the ACC. Clemson will clinch a spot in the ACC title game with a Miami loss to Wake Forest, but there’s just a 4% chance of that happening, according to ESPN Analytics.

Chance to Make Conference Championship Game: 25.2%

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The next four out

Arizona State Sun Devils (8-2)

Best win: Nov. 16 at Kansas State, 24-14
Toughest remaining match: Saturday vs. BYU

The Sun Devils are here because they can still win the Big 12, but they have the third best chance behind both BYU and Colorado. If the Sun Devils beat BYU on Saturday, their chance to reach the Big 12 title jumps from 41% to 71%, and if they win their last two games and finish 7-2 in the conference, there is a 98% chance that they will go to Arlington.

Chance to Make Conference Championship Game: 40.1%

Texas A&M Aggies (8-2)

Best win: Oct. 26 vs. LSU, 38-23
Toughest remaining match: November 30 vs. Texas

If Texas A&M can win its final two games, it will finish 7-1 in conference play and earn the No. 1 seed in the SEC championship game. According to ESPN Analytics, Texas has a 78% chance of beating Texas A&M. The Longhorns have a 73% chance to finish 7-1 in SEC play, while the Aggies only have a 14% chance to finish 7-1.

Chance to Make Conference Championship Game: 17.3%

Iowa State Cyclones (8-2)

Best win: September 7 in Iowa, 8-7 p.m
Toughest remaining match: November 30 vs. Kansas State

The Cyclones fell out of the CFP conversation after starting the month with back-to-back losses to Texas Tech and Kansas, but technically they’re still lurking with a 5-2 conference record and a 37% chance to finish 7-2 . If they do, they have a 55% chance of reaching the Big 12 title game.

Chance to Make Conference Championship Game: 20%

South Carolina Gamecocks (7-3)

Best win: November 2 vs. Texas A&M, 44-20
Toughest remaining match: Nov. 30 at Clemson

The Gamecocks are a real long shot — they’d need more upsets to make this a reality — but they’ve played well, and their losses to LSU and Alabama were by a combined five points. There is also a small chance they could win over the eventual SEC champions should the Aggies beat Texas. An even slimmer mayhem scenario is also winning against the ACC champions should Clemson make it to the ACC title game.

Chance to Make Conference Championship Game: No

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Group of 5 Power Rankings

1. Boise State Broncos (9-1), Mountain West

Best win: Sept. 28 vs. Washington State, 45-24

Why they are here: The Broncos have won eight straight since losing by a field goal to Oregon, and the selection committee considers losses as much as wins. Boise State will clinch a spot in the MWC Championship with a win at Wyoming or a UNLV loss at San Jose State.

Chance to win the conference: 80.8%

2. Tulane Green Wave (9-2), American Athletic

Best win: November 16 at the Navy, 35-0

Why they are here: The Green Wave are ahead of undefeated Army because they have played better over the last few weeks, with three of the last four wins being true road games. Tulane has won each of its last three games by at least 30 points while giving up a total of nine. This will be decided on the field in the AAC title game.

Chance to win the conference: Tulane has a 77.5% chance to win the AAC, ahead of Army (22.5%).

3. Army Black Knights (9-0), American Athletic

Best win: Nov. 9 at North Texas, 2-3 p.m

Why they are here: The Black Knights are undefeated and ranked by the selection committee, but their opponent’s winning percentage is No. 131 in the country (37.5%). The Army schedule ranks as no. 133 in the country – ahead of only Liberty. If Army beats Notre Dame on Saturday, this will change, but the Black Knights would likely still need Boise State to stumble. The bigger implication of that would likely be knocking the Irish out of the playoffs and opening up a spot for one of the above bubble teams.

Chance to win the conference: 22.5%

4. UNLV Rebels (8-2), Mountain West

Best win: September 13 at Kansas, 23-20

Why they are here: UNLV was able to do something BYU couldn’t — beat Kansas. This is a respectable team with an overtime loss to Syracuse and a five point loss to Boise State. And if UNLV meets Boise State in the MWC title game and avenges its regular-season loss, it at least opens up the possibility of the playoffs, depending on what happens in the American Athletic Conference. The Rebels are a long shot who need some help, but still have chances to put an end to their resume.

Chance to win the conference: 15.9%

5. Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (8-2), Sun Belt

Best win: Sept. 28 at Wake Forest, 41-38

Why they are here: The loss to South Alabama was devastating, and Louisiana’s chances of making the playoff are 0.3%. That’s still better than Colorado State (0.1%).

Chance to win the conference: 43.5%