Putin Lowers Threshold for Using His Nuclear Arsenal After Biden’s Arms Decision for Ukraine

President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday formally lowered the threshold for Russia’s use of its nuclear weapons, a move that follows US President Joe Biden’s decision allowing Ukraine to attack targets inside Russian territory with US-supplied long-range missiles.

The new doctrine allows for a potential nuclear response by Moscow even to a conventional attack on Russia by any nation backed by a nuclear power.

Russia’s Defense Ministry said Ukraine fired six US-made ATACMS missiles early Tuesday at a military facility in Russia’s Bryansk region, which borders Ukraine, adding that the air force shot down five of them and damaged one more. Ukraine’s military claimed the attack hit a Russian ammunition depot.

Although the doctrine foresees a possible nuclear response by Russia to such a conventional attack, it is worded broadly to avoid a firm commitment to use nuclear weapons and keep Putin’s options open.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stressed that the Ukrainian attack in Bryansk marked an escalation and called on the United States and other Western allies to study the modernized nuclear doctrine.

“If long-range missiles are used from the territory of Ukraine against Russian territory, it will mean that they are controlled by American military experts, and we will see it as a qualitatively new phase of the Western war against Russia and react accordingly.” ” Lavrov said on the sidelines of the G20 meeting in Brazil, without elaborating.

The approval of the document demonstrates Putin’s readiness to use his nuclear arsenal to force the West to back down as Moscow presses a slow-moving war-like offensive in Ukraine reached his 1,000. day.

Asked on Tuesday whether a Ukrainian attack with long-range US missiles could potentially trigger a nuclear response, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov replied in the affirmative, pointing to the doctrine’s provision that keeps the door open to it after a conventional attack that raises critical threats to “sovereignty” and territorial integrity: Russia and its ally, Belarus.

Commenting on whether the updated doctrine was deliberately issued to follow Biden’s decision, Peskov said the document was published “at the right time” and that Putin instructed the government to update it earlier this year so that it is “in accordance with the current situation.”

Putin first announced changes in nuclear doctrine in September, where he chaired a meeting to discuss the proposed revisions. He has previously warned the US and other NATO allies that allowing Ukraine to use Western-supplied long-range weapons to strike Russian territory would mean Russia and NATO are at war.

Washington has authorized Ukraine to use the longer-range weapons on targets inside Russia after declaring that thousands of North Korean troops were stationed in the Russian region of Kursk to fight an incursion by Kyiv’s forces.

“Unfortunately, I am not surprised by the comments the Kremlin has made regarding the publication of this new, revised document,” said US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller, adding that since the war, Russia began to “coerce and intimidate both Ukraine and other countries around the world through irresponsible nuclear rhetoric and behavior.”

He added that Washington has seen no reason to “adjust our own nuclear posture, but we will continue to call on Russia to stop belligerent and irresponsible rhetoric.”

A US National Security Council official, who was not authorized to comment publicly and requested anonymity, stressed that the arrival of thousands of North Korean soldiers to take part in combat operations against Ukraine was a major escalation from Moscow that required a response .

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer condemned the “irresponsible rhetoric coming from Russia and it will not deter our support for Ukraine.”

“We are now on day 1,000 of a conflict. It is 1,000 days of Russian aggression, 1,000 days of victims in Ukraine,” he said at the G-20 summit in Brazil. “We have stood with Ukraine from the beginning. I have doubled my clear message that we need to make sure Ukraine has what it needs for as long as it takes to win this war against Putin.”

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said in Warsaw that her country would not be intimidated by Russia’s new policy, saying that her country had made the mistake of cowering in the face of Moscow’s aggression in the past but would not do so again.

In Warsaw, Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski described the revised Russian nuclear doctrine as a tacit acknowledgment that Moscow’s conventional forces are weaker than NATO.

The updated doctrine says that an attack against Russia by a non-nuclear power with the “participation or support of a nuclear power” would be seen as their “joint attack on the Russian Federation.”

It says any massive air strike on Russia could trigger a nuclear response, but avoids any firm commitment, citing “uncertainty about the extent, time and place of possible use of nuclear deterrence” among the key principles of nuclear deterrence.

The document also notes that aggression against Russia by a member of a military bloc or coalition is considered “an aggression by the entire bloc,” a clear reference to NATO.

At the same time, it clarifies the conditions for using nuclear weapons in more detail compared to previous versions of the doctrine, noting that they can be used in the event of a massive air strike involving ballistic and cruise missiles, aircraft, drones and other flying vehicles.

The wording appears to significantly expand the triggers for possible nuclear weapons use compared to the document’s previous version, which said Russia could utilize its nuclear arsenal in the event of a ballistic missile attack.

President Alexander Lukashenko, who has ruled Belarus with an iron fist for more than 30 years and has depended on Russian subsidies and support, has allowed Russia to use his country’s territory to send troops into Ukraine and to deploy some of its tactical nuclear weapons.

Since Putin sent troops into Ukraine, he and other Russian voices have frequently threatened the West with Russia’s nuclear arsenal to deter it from increasing support for Kiev.

Russia hawks have been calling for a toughening of the doctrine for months, arguing that the previous version could not deter the West from increasing its aid to Ukraine and created the impression that Moscow would not resort to nuclear weapons.

—-

Aamer Madhani and Matthew Lee in Washington, Eleonore Hughes in Rio de Janeiro and Vanessa Gera in Warsaw, Poland contributed.