Jaylen Brown’s scoring through the first ten games of the season

This summer CelticsBlog The Crew shared high expectations for Jaylen Brown heading into the regular season. After winning Finals MVP honors, the spotlight was on him. Three main areas of focus were identified: his ability to generate free throws, his efficiency and his passing game. Now that ten games have passed, how does Jaylen Brown’s performance compare to last season? Is he on track to live up to those expectations?

Free throw generation

To give some context, in his rookie season, Jaylen Brown fouled over 14% of his shots, putting him in the 90th percentile – a very promising start. This metric reflects a player’s ability to generate “easy” points at the free throw line.

Typically, this percentage increases as players gain experience, physical strength and the respect of the referees – barring physical decline. However, Jaylen’s shooting foul rate (SFLD%) stagnated after his rookie season, hovering above average but not at an elite level.

(video above: post-up on a mismatch and generates free throw)

However, this season marks a breakthrough. Brown’s SFLD% has increased from 11.5% last season to 15.6% this year, placing him in the 93rd percentile among NBA wings. What has caused this improvement?

One important change is Brown’s approach in post-up situations. Last season he wasn’t as aggressive in these scenarios. This year, once he gets into post-up position, he actively chases better positioning and higher percentage shots, often targeting weaker defenders.

The Celtics are aware of the chase mismatch. This year, Brown has turned post-ups into a weapon to generate free throws. Last season, he missed on 13.8% of his post-ups; this season, that number has risen to 46.2%. This remarkable increase suggests a deliberate and effective shift in strategy.

(video above: post-up on a mismatch and make the field goal plus the error)

Kristaps Porziņģis and Jayson Tatum led the Celtics’ post-up evolution last season. This year, Jaylen Brown is reaping the benefits of that approach.

In addition, Brown’s free throw percentage has risen closer to 80%, further bolstering his scoring efficiency. But has this improvement translated into overall efficiency gains?

Scoring efficiency

While Brown’s free throw efficiency has improved, his overall scoring efficiency is down from last season. In fact, he is currently less effective than at any point in his career.

The small sample size should be noted, but some trends indicate an evolution in Brown’s scoring game that has affected his efficiency.

The most significant change is his increased self-creation. Last season, 48% of Browns field goals were assisted. This year, that number has dropped to 38%, meaning he’s creating more of his own shots. Self-creation often results in more difficult attempts with less help from teammates.

To illustrate this shift, consider that Brown’s shot attempts after seven or more dribbles are up 26% and his drives per game are up from 10 to 14. But his drives seem slower and the team’s spacing isn’t as efficient as last season. These factors likely contribute to his decline in efficiency on drives, at the rim and in isolation plays.

(video above: runs on a slow Brook Lopez but doesn’t create enough room to finish at the rim)

Beyond the challenge, Brown struggles with his outside shot. His catch-and-shoot and wide-open three-point percentages have dropped from 35% to 25%. While this is concerning, shooting slumps are often temporary and he has been dealing with a nagging hip flexor injury since the start of the season. This variability highlights the importance of evaluating efficacy over a larger sample size.

To summarize, while there are worrying signs – such as reduced efficiency of drives and isolations – the drop in efficiency is not as drastic as it seems. His shooting is likely to recover and his new approach shows promise.

Pass game

Given Brown’s increased role in shot creation, one would expect an improvement in his passing game. However, his assist numbers remain unchanged. This begs the question of whether there is no room for more passes or is Brown missing opportunities?

Brown’s increased self-creation has focused primarily on his own scoring, which has had a double-negative effect: his efficiency has decreased and he’s not creating as much for teammates. For example, his drive volume is up, but his swing from drives is not.

(video above: drives, attracts defense’s attention but doesn’t look for open teammates)

This season, we are witnessing Jaylen Brown take on a new role in the Celtics’ offense. Adjusting to this role will take time as he learns to balance scoring and playmaking for himself and the team. The return of Kristaps Porziņģis will likely help as we saw how effective Brown was last year with Porziņģis on the court.

(video above: souvenir of the great synergy between Cookies & Cream)

It will be fascinating to see if Brown can maintain his improved post-up game while regaining his shooting pressure. At 28, he proves that he can still develop and adapt his approach. Let’s be patient, stay curious and watch his development.