Boise State moves ahead of BYU and into CFP bye territory

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  • Andrea Adelson, ESPN Senior Writer19 Nov 2024, 7:22 PM ET

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    • ACC reporter.
    • Joined ESPN.com in 2010.
    • Graduated from the University of Florida.

Boise State moved ahead of BYU in the third installment of rankings released by the College Football Playoff selection committee Tuesday night, putting the Broncos in position to earn a first-round bye ahead of the Big 12 champion.

The top five remains unchanged, with no. 1 Oregon leading, followed by no. 2 Ohio State, no. 3 Texas, no. 4 Penn State and no. 5 Indiana. But the biggest story is how the committee dropped BYU after a 17-13 loss to Kansas ended its undefeated season.

BYU (9-1) moved down eight spots from No. 6 to no. 14, and fell behind no. 12 at Boise State (9-1).

Using the current rankings, Oregon (Big Ten), Texas (SEC), Miami (ACC) and Boise State (Mountain West) would be the four highest-rated conference champions and would receive first-round byes in the 12-team playoff. BYU (Big 12) would be included in the playoffs as the fifth-highest rated conference champion, but would be the No. 12 seed and had to play in the first round.

Based on resumes, Boise State has a better loss than BYU — on the road against no. 1 Oregon after the Ducks kicked the game-winning field goal as time expired. BYU lost at home to a Kansas team that is 4-6. The week before, BYU needed a miraculous comeback to beat Utah. The Cougars have yet to play any of the Big 12 teams ranked in the current Top 25, although they play at No. 21 at Arizona State on Saturday.

“We certainly consider strength in all the conversations we have,” Warde Manuel, the chairman of the CFP committee, said on ESPN’s rankings release show Tuesday night. “We also look at how the teams play and what success is on the field.”

BYU’s best win is over SMU, and even though the teams are both 9-1 and BYU has the head-to-head win, the Mustangs are ranked one spot ahead of the No. 13.

That would still leave them on the outside looking in.

“We watch the games and we see how the teams play every week,” Manuel said. “So we evaluate their work. We will evaluate it every week, based on how the team plays that week, but also the work.”

Notre Dame (No. 6), Alabama (No. 7), Miami (No. 8), Ole Miss (No. 9) and Georgia (No. 10) round out the top 10.

First-round matchups would look like this: No. 12 BYU in no. 5 Ohio State; no. 11 Georgia at no. 6 Penn State; no. 10 Ole Miss at no. 7 Indiana; No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Notre Dame.

“We look at the data, we look at the statistics, but we also have to watch the games and see how the teams are performing,” Manuel said. “And that’s a lot of debate. But that’s the value of having 13 people on this committee, with the conversations that are going on.”

Tennessee fell four spots to No. 11 after their 31-17 loss to the Bulldogs, but would be the first team out of the 12-team playoff. Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss and Tennessee are all 8-2 and have different head-to-head wins over each other. Alabama, which leapfrogged Miami to No. 7 after beating Mercer, beat Georgia but lost to Tennessee; Ole Miss beat Georgia but won’t play Alabama or Tennessee.

With so much left to be determined in the SEC race, there is a fear that the loser of the SEC championship game could be left out of the playoffs as a three-loss team.

“I’ve talked to other coaches, so I’ll just give you the feeling from some other coaches that they don’t want to be involved,” Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin said during his news conference Monday. “The reward of getting a bye versus the risk of getting knocked out completely. I mean … it’s a really big risk.”

Texas A&M is also 8-2, but ranked No. 15. Still, the Aggies and Texas are the only two teams with one loss in SEC play. If both teams win this weekend (Texas A&M is at Auburn and Texas hosts Kentucky), their regular-season finale would be a guaranteed spot in the SEC Championship. So the Aggies aren’t out of the running yet either.

Colorado trails Texas A&M at no. 16, then it’s Clemson, South Carolina, Army and Tulane. Four of the final five teams are new to the rankings this week — Arizona State at No. 21, Iowa State at No. 22, UNLV at no. 24 and Illinois at no. 25. Missouri remains at no. 23.

Kansas State, Louisville, Washington State and LSU all dropped out after losses last weekend.

With conference title games looming, eight SEC teams are ranked in the Top 25 this week, along with five Big Ten teams, four Big 12 teams, three ACC teams and two each from the American Athletic Conference and the Mountain West.

“We have a lot of value with the teams that make a conference championship game. Making that game is a valuable data point,” Manuel said. “We rank the teams through the championship games. But teams that make those championship games, the committee looks at them and holds them in high regard.”

The four first round games will be played on the home campus of the higher seeded teams on December 20th and 21st. The four quarterfinal games will be held at the VRBO Fiesta Bowl, the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, the Rose Bowl presented by Prudential and the Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

The two semifinal games will take place at the Capital One Orange Bowl and the Goodyear Cotton Bowl on January 9 and 10.

The CFP National Championship presented by AT&T is scheduled for Jan. 20 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.