Putin is fine-tuning Russia’s nuclear doctrine after Biden’s weapons decision on Ukraine, in a clear signal to the West

CNN
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president Vladimir Putin has updated Russia’s nuclear doctrine, two days after his American counterpart Joe Biden gave Ukraine permission to strike targets deep inside Russia with American-made weapons.

Under the updated doctrine, Moscow would consider aggression by any non-nuclear state – but with the participation of a nuclear country – a joint attack on Russia.

The change comes as the Kremlin responds to the Biden administration’s decision to allow Ukraine to use powerful US weapons inside Russia, a move the Russian government has already signaled would be a dangerous escalation of the war in Ukraine.

The Kremlin launched this fresh round of nuclear saber-rattling on Tuesday, saying the revised military doctrine would, in theory, lower the bar for the first use of nuclear weapons.

In a phone call with reporters, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov noted that the changes mean that “the Russian Federation reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in the event of aggression using conventional weapons against it and/or the Republic of Belarus.”

Nuclear deterrence is a pillar of Russian military doctrine, but the revision appears to broaden the definition of what would be considered aggression against Russia.

“An important element of this document is that nuclear deterrence is aimed at ensuring that a potential adversary understands the inevitability of retaliation in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation or its allies,” Peskov said.

The revised doctrine is clearly intended to send a strong signal to Ukraine’s Western backers about the risk of escalation – and make politicians and the public think twice about the possible consequences of supplying Ukraine with more sophisticated and far-reaching weapons.

But Russia has also escalated its own campaign against Ukraine in recent days, covering the country as well drone and missile attacks that appears to be partly aimed at destroying civilian energy infrastructure as winter approaches.

Russia’s doctrinal change follows a consistent pattern of threatening rhetoric that has persisted since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, now 1,000 days old.

After French President Emmanuel Macron said earlier this year that he would not rule out send Western troops to UkrainePutin ordered one tactical nuclear weapons exercise in response to what he called “threats” from the West.

Russia’s warnings about Western deliveries of military aid to Ukraine have become almost a matter of routine since the run-up to the full-scale invasion in February 2022.

The Kremlin has warned of “enormous risks” surrounding the supply of F-16 fighter jet“serious consequences” for sending Patriot air defense systems and has expressed outrage over sending Western tanks to Ukraine.

But the revision of the nuclear doctrine appears designed to add a new level of credibility to Russian threats of escalation, especially as a new administration prepares to take office in Washington.

Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion, it has lowered the threshold below which it would consider using nuclear weapons.

In a 2020 update of the nuclear doctrine – before the war began – Putin said Moscow reserves the right to use nuclear weapons “when the very existence of the state is threatened.”

But changes outlined in September this year appeared to lower that threshold, saying Moscow could use nuclear weapons when faced with “a critical threat to its sovereignty.”

Tuesday’s decree clarifies the circumstances under which Russia may resort to nuclear weapons. It essentially repeats and makes official the terms of September’s proposed revision, which said Moscow would consider any attack on it backed by a nuclear power a joint attack. This updates the list of conventional weapons whose launch could pose a critical threat and specifies that an attack on Belarus will be seen on an equal footing with Russia.

Russian officials reacted furiously to reports that the Biden administration had lifted its years-long ban on Ukraine’s use of ATACMS – US weapons capable of hitting targets deep inside Russia.

In a speech on Monday, Peskov said the move showed Biden wanted to “throw fuel on the fire and escalate the conflict in Ukraine.”

However, the incoming administration of US President-elect Donald Trump may complicate the Kremlin’s response to Biden’s decision to greenlight Ukraine’s use of ATACM missiles.

Trump, who takes office in just over two months, has said he wants to bring the war in Ukraine to a quick end, but has not specified how he will do it.

Although Trump has yet to comment on Biden’s decision, his son, Donald Trump Jr., has criticized it.

“The military industrial complex seems to want to make sure they start World War 3 before my father has a chance to make peace and save lives,” he said on social media.