Rico Dowdle has cemented himself as the Cowboys top RB option because of RBBC

For as insane as it has been stealing carries from Rico Dowdle in 2024, the side-by-side comparison of Ezekiel Elliott and Dowdle has given the Cowboys a good picture of what each player adds to the running game.

Running backs are a difficult position to evaluate in the NFL. Average yards per carries, cumulative totals and yards after contact have been common ways to grade RB efficiency in the past, but they can be dated and often misleading. Expected Points Added (EPA) has correctly assessed the impact of each run better than yards/carry could ever dream of, but like the others, it has a hard time distinguishing between RB impact and offensive line ability.

As advanced statistics take off in mainstream sports analytics, fans have searched tirelessly to find something that demonstrates the value of a running back beyond what is directly provided to him by his offensive line. Many have recently seized on success rate as a major barometer of RB skill, but even that speaks to the team’s execution of the play and says nothing about the quality of the runner himself.

This is where Elliott and the Cowboys’ early use of RB-by-committee comes into play.

Under Mike McCarthy, the Cowboys have been resistant to putting specific running backs into specific roles. He delivers drives and calls continuous plays, whether it’s Elliott or Dowdle in the backfield. To the unintended benefit of this analysis, he matches play calls and circumstances as evenly as one could hope for. From this we compare yards/carry, yards after contact, elusive rating (PFF signature stat metric value added by RB) and success rate between the two backs. Predictably, all factors point to Dowdle as the superior RB.

Running behind the same Cowboys offensive line, Dowdle is averaging 4.5 yards/carry, compared to Elliott averaging just 3.2. Dowdle produces an EPA average of 0.04, while Elliott produces -0.27. Dowdle scores a 50.7 elusive rating compared to Elliott, who averages a team 17.2. Dowdle averages 2.41 yards after contact, while Elliott averages 2.25.

Dowdle is tackled for loss at a lower rate, he gets first downs at a higher rate, and his explosive running speed is about five times that of Elliott. In matters of success rate (SR), Dowdle sits at 48.2 percent, while Elliott is light years behind at 31.5 percent. Again, it’s all behind the same offensive line with an average number of defenders in the field greater for Dowdle than Elliott.

It is important to point out that SR differs from site to site with Pro Football Reference following a generic 40/60/100 format, while Sumer Sports bases theirs on actual EPA on the given game (Sumer Sports for the win). But in either method of calculating SR, Dowdle has proven to be one of the best RBs in the NFL, all behind this Cowboys offensive line.

A successful running game typically comes from a well-executed running scheme. Offensive lines have proven over the years that they are often more instrumental to success on the ground than the man running the ball. Such sentiment has led many to declare “running backs don’t matter” since many backups produce at or near the same output level as the man they replace.

In Dallas, that is clearly not the situation. Running backs matter a lot because virtually every metric points to Dowdle as the superior runner. The Cowboys running game goes from the lower level when Elliott has carried the ball to the upper level when Dowdle carries the ball.

For as frustrating as the committee’s approach has been in 2024, it has given the team a good look at what Dowdle really adds to the formula. Not only has that made the case for Dowdle to be the top dog in 2024, but it makes a good case for re-signing the 26-year-old RB for next year and beyond.

This past week, Dowdle has been declared the RB1 for the Cowboys going forward. That’s a broad haul because based on the comparison between Dallas’ top two rushers, RBs really do matter sometimes.

Related articles

(affiliatewidget_smgtolocal)