Texans-Cowboys Betting Preview (Odds, Lines, Best Bets)

• WR Nico Collins, Houston Texas — over 5.5 receptions: Before his Week 5 injury, Nico Collins was performing at an elite level, averaging 3.50 yards per carry. route running and earned a league-leading 92.4 PFF receiving grade. Since the start of the 2023 season, his 92.7 reception grade remains the highest among all NFL wide receivers, highlighting his game-changing ability.

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Estimated reading time: 3 minutes

Game overview

Monday Night Football heads to Texas for a showdown between a Texans team aiming to bounce back from a rough start to November and a Cowboys team in freefall after four straight losses.

With Dak Prescott sidelined for the season with a hamstring injury, Dallas turned around Cooper Rush in Week 10. The already struggling offense, led by a limited quarterback, faced an aggressive Eagles defense, resulting in a disastrous performance. Rush managed just 45 yards, averaging 2.0 yards per carry. attempt, and achieved a pass rate of 40.8 PFF.

This week’s matchup feels eerily similar to last week, when Dallas was also a 7-point home favorite, only to lose to Philadelphia by 28 points. That loss marked the Cowboys’ fourth straight coverage failure, dropping them to a dismal 2-7 against the spread – good for the second-worst coverage rate in the NFL (22.2%).

Things have also been rocky in Houston, where the Texans have dropped three of their last four games due to a mix of injuries and lackluster performances. In Sunday’s loss to the Lions, the Texans’ defense forced an impressive five interceptions but received little support from the offense, leaving the team scoreless in the second half.

Despite the loss in Week 10, the Texans managed to cover as a home deficit, improving to 4-2 over the span since the start of October. Much of their recent competitiveness can be attributed to a solid defense that has posted the NFL’s fifth-best EPA allowed per game. game over that stretch.

Offensive struggles, combined with their strong defensive play, has led to seven unders hitting in the game total through 10 games this season.

WR Nico Collins, Houston Texas: Over 5.5 receptions (+105)

Not to discount contributions from players who Tank Dell, Dalton Schultzand John Metchie IIIwho has performed excellently in Nico Collins‘ absence, but this Texans offense takes on a whole different dynamic with a truly elite receiver on the field.

Before his Week 5 injury, Collins was performing at a dominant level, averaging 3.50 yards per carry. route running and earned a league-best 92.4 PFF receiving grade. Since the start of the 2023 season, his 92.7 receiving grade leads all NFL receivers, underscoring how impactful he is as a game-changer in the Texans’ offense.

During his time on the court this season, Collins led the team in threat percentage (27.2%) and saw 44 goals in just four full games. That heavy involvement translated into six or more receptions in three of those outings, making him a reliable and explosive option at quarterback CJ Stroud.

Collins’ return presents a significant challenge to a struggling Cowboys secondary that ranks 31st in team coverage grade (49.1). Although Dallas has faced the fewest passing attempts in the league this season, their inability to limit explosive plays remains a glaring problem. They rank 29th in preventing 15-plus yard receptions, allowing such plays on 16.1% of their coverage targets. That’s exactly the type of matchup Stroud and Collins can take advantage of, setting the stage for a long day for the Cowboys’ defensive backfield.