NFL ‘Sunday Night Football’ Player Props, Odds, Picks

On By Littum

Sunday night will see two AFC playoff hopefuls when Joe Burrows’ Bengals visit Justin Herbert’s Chargers.

Burrow and Herbert were selected in the first round of the 2020 draft, and Burrow won the only prior meeting between the 2021 quarterbacks.

The Chargers are favored by 1.5 points at home, and the Over/Under is set at 47.5 points, with scores expected at SoFi Stadium.

I have two choices for this game including a full team and a player plug.

Let’s dive into the data and see where the edge lies in what should be an exciting primetime matchup.

Bengals Over 23.5 points (-115, DraftKings)

Burrow is in the midst of what would be an MVP-caliber season if it weren’t for the Bengals’ 4-6 record.

He’s tied for the league lead with 24 touchdowns and just four interceptions, and he’s second to sole MVP favorite Lamar Jackson in the all-encompassing EPA+CPOE metric.

Ja’Marr Chase, a top contender for Offensive Player of the Year, leads the NFL with 981 yards and 10 touchdowns.

The Chargers boast the fifth-ranked pass defense DVOA this year, but they’ve faced the easiest schedule for opposing offenses.

While I greatly respect first-year defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, I’m not completely sold on this group.

Los Angeles ranks just 29th in pass rush, and Burrow has been the light out of a clean pocket all year.

Cincinnati will have star wide receiver Tee Higgins back in the lineup, while left tackle Orlando Brown’s status remains in doubt.

Whether or not Brown plays, I expect the Bengals’ fifth-ranked offense by EPA to succeed against a Chargers defense that hasn’t seen this caliber of opponent all year.


Los Angeles Chargers running back JK Dobbins (27) gets past Tennessee Titans linebacker Jack Gibbens (50) in the first half at SoFi Stadium.
Los Angeles Chargers running back JK Dobbins (27) gets past Tennessee Titans linebacker Jack Gibbens (50) in the first half at SoFi Stadium. Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Photos

JK Dobbins Under 57.5 Rushing Yards (-110, Bet365)

One of the best stories of the early part of the season, Dobbins was an early front-runner for Comeback Player of the Year with his laundry list of past lower-body injuries.

Unfortunately, he has started to slow down in recent weeks.

Since Week 3, he’s just 26th out of 28 qualified running backs with a 3.54 YPC rate and 25th with a 2.6 percent explosive rush rate.

The Bengals’ run defense has been exploited for most of the season, ranking just 31st in run defense success rate on the year, but has been far better in recent weeks thanks to improved health up front.

Bet on the NFL?

Since Week 5, Cincinnati has held opponents to the fifth-lowest explosive rush rate and 12th fewest yards after contact per carry. attempt.

Gus Edwards returned to the lineup last week and immediately saw 10 carries.

The Chargers will likely use Edwards to spell Dobbins more often to keep him healthy.

We could also see more of a pass-heavy game script for the Chargers here.

Since their Week 5 bye, they rank third in neutral passer rating, and with the Bengals expected to put up points in droves, the Chargers may need to open up the offense to keep pace.

Why Trust New York Post Bets

Jacob Wayne disabled college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He’s up 84.5 units across the two sports for a 6.27% ROI.