No. 6 BYU upset by Kansas: What it means for Playoff, Big 12 race

On By Littum

BYU’s undefeated season is over.

The No. 6 The Cougars suffered a 17-13 home upset at the hands of Kansas on Saturday night, dealing a blow to their College Football Playoff and Big 12 title hopes. It was the Jayhawks’ first road win against a top-10 team since 1995.

After holding first place in the conference, BYU (9-1, 6-1 Big 12) now falls into a tie for first place with No. 17 Colorado (8-2, 6-1). Next week, the Cougars travel to Arizona State, which improved to 8-2 with a road upset at Kansas State earlier Saturday.

The game turned early in the fourth quarter on a pooch punt by Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels.

Daniels’ punt bounced off the helmet of BYU cornerback Evan Johnson inside the BYU 10-yard line. BYU cornerback Jakob Robinson quickly tried to throw the ball, but it squirted out from under him and was recovered by Kansas receiver Quentin Skinner. On the next play, Kansas running back Devin Neal scored on a 3-yard touchdown run to give Kansas the go-ahead.

BYU struggled to finish drives and establish a consistent offensive rhythm. The Cougars finished with just 354 total yards and were 3-of-10 on third-down conversion attempts.

Kansas cornerback Mello Dotson picked off BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff in the end zone with 39 seconds left in the first half, killing a potential BYU scoring drive and leaving the teams tied at 10.

The Cougars chewed up more than 10 minutes of clock to start the third quarter on a 17-play, 66-yard drive, but settled for a field goal and a 13-10 lead.

BYU drove into Kansas’ red zone in the final minute, but a false start penalty forced BYU into a fourth-and-11 situation. Retzlaff found Chase Roberts, who was tackled 3 yards from the first down marker, ending BYU’s last chance to regain the lead.

Kansas (4-6, 3-4) had an even tougher time offensively, scoring just 242 yards and going 4-for-12 on third down. But the Jayhawks scored on their opening drive, a 10-play, 84-yard march that was capped by an 8-yard scoring run by Neal. The Jayhawks defense turned in a solid performance, holding BYU’s run game in check, compiling five tackles for loss and sacking Retzlaff twice.

It’s the second straight win for the Jayhawks, who had a rough 2-6 start to the season. Last week, Kansas upset then No. 17 Iowa State 45-36 at Arrowhead Stadium.

On Saturday, Kansas’ sixth game of the season was decided by single digits, but the first in which the Jayhawks won.

It was BYU’s fifth game this season decided by single digits, and the loss came just a week after the Cougars escaped Salt Lake City with their narrowest win of the season, a 22-21 nail-biter over Holy War rival Utah.

What BYU’s loss means for the Big 12 title race

Even with the loss to Kansas, BYU still controls its destiny in the Big 12 title race. If the Cougars win, they reach the championship game. Same for Colorado.

But the odds for mayhem just increased, and next week’s matchup between BYU and Arizona State is massive. If Arizona State wins at home against BYU, the Sun Devils would jump ahead of the Cougars and be no worse than second in the Big 12 standings.

If Arizona State wins and Colorado loses to Kansas next weekend, Arizona State would be in first place and Iowa State would move into second place with a win.

A number of tiebreaker scenarios remain in play for the Big 12 over the final two weeks of the regular season, with many hinged on a pair of high-stakes games next Saturday: BYU at Arizona State and Colorado at Kansas.

What BYU’s loss means for the CFP race

The Cougars may still have a clear (albeit narrower) path to the playoffs, but the loss to Kansas really hurts the Big 12’s hopes of getting more schools in the 12-team field. The league’s best (only?) chance was a two-loss Colorado — or possibly Arizona State or Iowa State — knocking off undefeated BYU in the conference championship, which would give the winner an automatic bid and leave the door open for a one-loss. BYU to catch an at-large.

Now, the best the Big 12 can hope for is a two-loss second place finish, which can certainly be squeezed out by, say, a potential horde of two-loss SEC teams depending on how the final weeks shake out. There’s still a slim chance for the Big 12 dream to get two teams in, but the odds took a big hit with BYU’s stumble.

According to Athletics‘s projection model dropped BYU to a 26 percent chance of making the Playoff.

Big 12 CFP and title odds

Team CFP bid Big 12 title Record

46%

51%

8-2

26%

27%

9-1

10%

10%

8-2

10%

10%

8-2

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(Photo: Rob Gray / Imagn Images)