What we learned about the CFP in Week 12: Georgia is still alive, an SEC-Big Ten debate looms

On By Littum

With two weeks left in the college football regular season, there appear to be more teams hanging around Playoff contention than falling out.

No. 12 Georgia, very much alive. No. 17 Colorado, humming along. Got a little lopsided for No. 3 Texas and No. 14 SMU, but they’re still going. No. 20 Clemson, hanging in there. Arizona state? Sure, come in.

The most we learned about the College Football Playoff race in Week 12 is that we’re likely headed for a debate about Big Ten and SEC teams.

Got that Dawg in them

Asked what message Georgia sent to the Playoff selection committee with its emphatic 31-17 victory against No. 7 Tennessee, Bulldogs coach Kirby Smart was stunned.

“I don’t know. Because I don’t know what they’re looking for. I don’t know what they’re looking for anymore,” Smart said in a postgame interview with ESPN.

I’m still convinced that a 9-3 Georgia team would have found its way into the field, but after plummeting from No. 3 to No. 12 last week after a loss at Ole Miss, Smart’s team was definitely on the edge.

What we’re learning in this first season of superconferences is that the SEC’s very best teams haven’t been able to separate themselves from the rest as they did when Alabama mostly ran the league, with interludes from LSU and a recent surge from Georgia.

Partly because the top teams are not quite as good as they have been in the past. But even the teams that often occupied the second tier of the SEC — Tennessee and Ole Miss most notably — have closed the gap.

Unless something weird happens against Georgia Tech in the regular season finale, the Bulldogs should be fine at 10-2 no matter what the SEC tiebreaker spits out to determine the championship participants.

Missouri was the only SEC team to officially leave the race — though the Tigers barely hung on before South Carolina broke their hearts in a wild affair at Williams-Brice Stadium.

There is still a possibility that on Dec. 1, the Sunday before championship weekend, six SEC teams will be 10-2: Texas, Alabama, Ole Miss, Georgia, Tennessee, Texas A&M. That would require Texas A&M to beat Texas and no other upsets.

Texas-Texas A&M is looking more and more like an elimination game. Yes, the Longhorns would still be 10-2, but among the contenders, Texas has the least pop on its resume, and it would have lost both of its games against highly ranked teams (Georgia, A&M). The Longhorns had a hard time shaking Arkansas on Saturday.

For the Aggies, another loss would be their third, and their best win would have been against LSU (6-4). Enough said.

After a conference champion is decided, that should leave four SEC teams very much in the mix for at-large bids. Can they all get in the field?

That will likely depend on how things play out in the Big Ten, which occupied four of the first five spots in the last CFP rankings and could very well do the same in the next.

It has caused a lot of consternation in SEC land because god knows the poor SEC needs all the support it can get.

“It’s different in our league,” Smart told reporters, adding, “Go Dogs.”

The next Big Ten game of the year

For No. 2 Ohio State, next week’s game against No. 5 Indiana could be the third top-five game of the season unless the rankings change Tuesday.

The Buckeyes are 1-1 on the road against Oregon and Penn State. They host the Hoosiers on Saturday.

For Indiana, a top-five regular-season game would be a program first.

The Hoosiers (10-0) celebrated their off week by giving coach Curt Cignetti an eight-year contract that pays $8 million a year. Meanwhile, Ohio State (9-1) took care of business at Wrigley Field against Northwestern.

Oregon (10-0) battled through a spotty offensive performance against Wisconsin, and Penn State (9-1) showcased talented tight end Tyler Warren in a lopsided win against Purdue.

That’s four teams with two combined losses, but because of the SEC’s logjam, the Big Ten’s Big 4 still has little room for error.

The winner of next week’s game in Columbus will have the inside track to the Big Ten Championship Game on the way to being a heavy favorite in a rivalry game (Purdue for Indiana and Michigan for Ohio State).

The loser of next week’s unlikely marquee matchup will likely find itself compared to at least one or two of the 10-2 SEC teams come selection weekend. The Big Ten’s mushy middle, with no other ranked teams, and non-conference schedules, with no Power 4 opponents, could be a problem for the Hoosiers or Buckeyes.

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Welcome, Sun Devils

Arizona State (8-2) is the latest arrival to the Playoff party among P4 teams, winning three straight and five of six — including 24-14 at Kansas State on Saturday night.

The Sun Devils’ only path is likely through a Big 12 championship, but after Kansas upset No. 6 BYU 17-13 in Provo, Arizona State’s path to the title game is straightforward: beat BYU at home next week and Arizona after that, and keep , unranked in any poll all year, will play for a playoff spot on Dec. 7.

While Indiana’s turnaround under Cignetti has arguably locked up national coach of the year honors for the Hoosiers’ boss, Arizona State’s second season under Kenny Dillingham has been almost as impressive.

The Sun Devils went 3-9 last year, barely putting together an offense from week to week. This year, behind a stingy defense and steady play from Michigan State transfer Sam Leavitt at quarterback, Arizona State has been the biggest surprise in a conference full of them.

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All is far from lost for BYU. The Cougars are in the same spot as ASU: Win out and get in.

But their first loss is damaging. If BYU could have reached the Big 12 title game 12-0, an at-large bid was likely still on the table if it stumbled at Jerry World.

That’s likely gone now, and the Big 12 will need some significant upsets in the SEC and Big Ten to get deep into the broad discussion.

Travis Hunter and the No. 17 Buffaloes kept rolling against Utah and are also in full control of their Big 12 postseason destiny.

But watch out for buffs. Next up is Kansas, who have now won three of four at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City.

Mountain West vs. AAC

One of the coolest features of the expanded Playoff is the way it gets unrelated teams suddenly very invested in each other.

For example, the burgeoning Boise State-Tulane rivalry.

The Broncos and Green Wave have never played, but with Tulane on an eight-game winning streak and a berth in the American Athletic Conference championship now, there is a legitimate discussion as to which team might be the best in the Group of 5.

Of course, undefeated Army demands to be part of that conversation, but Boise State and Tulane have each played far tougher schedules than the Cadets, including some Power 4 teams.

Heisman Trophy contender Ashton Jeanty and the No. 13 Broncos remain the clear favorites to clinch a Playoff berth as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions after rallying from 14-0 down to beat San Jose State.

Tulane has been a stealth contender after losing nonconference games to Kansas State and Oklahoma in September. First-year coach Jon Sumrall’s team hasn’t lost since leaving Norman and just entered the rankings for the first time this week at No. 25.

The Green Wave (9-2, 7-2) became the first team in the country to clinch a berth in a conference title game on Saturday by blasting Navy 35-0. The result also locked up a berth in the AAC championship for No. 24 Army (9-0, 7-0). With a two-game lead and one to play, the Black Knights struck as they took the week off. The venue for the December 7 game has yet to be determined.

Army is the more interesting Playoff contender out of the AAC for obvious reasons. The Black Knights play No. 8 Notre Dame at Yankee Stadium next week before closing out the conference schedule at home against UTSA on Nov. 30.

So after the AAC title game, Army plays its traditional rivalry game against Navy on Dec. 14. That would be a week after the Playoff field is set, meaning the Cadets have just one week to prepare for a first-round game, almost certainly on the road.

It would be wild, but Tulane looks like the more serious CFP contender out of the AAC behind redshirt freshman quarterback Darian Mensah and defensive lineman Patrick Jenkins.

Boise State is one win away from clinching a spot in the Mountain West title game, and surprisingly, Colorado State controls its destiny for the second spot.

It would be best for the conference if UNLV (8-2) can somehow squeeze past the Rams, who play neither Boise nor UNLV in the regular season. The Rebels would have a case for a playoff spot if they could win a postseason rematch with the Broncos.

Good times in the G5 and certainly more interesting than playing for a spot in a bowl game starting at noon on New Year’s Day against a Power 4 team with a bunch of players opting out.

Still a three-team race

SMU (9-1) held off Boston College to remain undefeated in the ACC, and Clemson (8-2) kept its hopes of sneaking into the conference championship alive with a late, long touchdown run by Cade Klubnik against Pitt.

The Mustangs finish with Virginia and Cal and even have some room to stumble because it holds a tiebreaker over the Tigers by virtue of beating Louisville.

No. 9 Miami (9-1) was out and also holds the tiebreaker against Clemson, which is in the clubhouse with a 7-1 ACC record.

So about Louisville. The Cardinals were ranked No. 19 last week, with three losses, but all close games to ranked teams (SMU, Miami, Notre Dame). Louisville looked like a nice resume builder for its opponents.

Then the Cardinals went to Stanford and somehow managed to blow a 14-point lead in the fourth quarter to the Cardinal, who won on a walk-off, 52-yard field goal by Emmet Kenney.

How much Louisville’s status really mattered is debatable. The ACC was probably headed for a CFP bid anyway, but those arguments just got harder to make.

(Photo: John Adams / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)