How many more games does BYU need to win to clinch the Big 12 Championship?

On By Littum

After a miraculous win over Utah, BYU is 9-0 and firmly atop the Big 12 standings. With a dangerous game against Kansas coming up, we take a look at BYU’s remaining three games and discuss how many games BYU needs to win to get to the Big 12 championship game.

There are three scenarios we will look at

  1. BYU goes 3-0
  2. BYU goes 2-1
  3. BYU goes 1-2

Any record worse than 1-2 would knock BYU out of title contention. Without further ado, let’s dive in.

BYU is in sole possession of first place in the Big 12 standings. If BYU wins, they’re in. A 12-0 record would guarantee BYU a spot in the Big 12 championship game. The FPI gives BYU a 26% chance to finish the regular season undefeated.

If BYU is undefeated, it’s not a matter of whether they’d be in it, it’s a matter of who they’d play. The Cougars would either face Colorado (which also controls its fate), Kansas State or Iowa State. Both Arizona State and West Virginia have an outside chance to play for the title as well. Kansas State and Iowa State play each other in the final week of the regular season. That game could be a play-in game for the Big 12 championship if Colorado loses one of its final games.

According to FPI, 2-1 over the last four games is the most likely outcome for BYU. FPI says there’s a 47% chance BYU goes 11-1 and a 73% chance they finish 11-1 or better.

If BYU goes 2-1, they will be in the championship game no matter what. No tiebreakers would be necessary — BYU would be one of the top two teams in the Big 12 standings.

1-2 is the bare minimum for BYU to have a chance to play in the Big 12 title game. FPI says there’s a 24% chance BYU finishes 1-2 over the last three games.

If BYU loses two games, the Cougars would need tiebreakers to get them into the Big 12 championship game. In that scenario, there would be the possibility of as many as five teams being tied at the top of the standings with two losses.

Depending on how many teams are tied and which teams are tied, BYU may or may not win the tiebreaker. There are too many possible tiebreaker scenarios to accurately break down whether or not BYU could come in with two losses. Again, it will all depend on which teams are tied in the standings.

For BYU, this is the scenario you want to avoid. Maintaining control of your own destiny is one of the most valuable commodities in college football. If BYU keeps winning, they will find themselves in Arlington.