Michael Chandler vs. Charles Oliveira Prediction, Time, Odds: UFC 309

MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes deep to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC 309 main event between Michael Chandler and Charles Oliveira.

Charles Oliveira UFC 309 preview

Booklet information:

• Record: 34-10 MMA, 22-10 UFC
• Height: 5’10” Age: 35 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 74″
• Last fight: decision loss to Arman Tsarukyan (April 13, 2024)
• Camp: Chute Boxe Diego Lima (Brazil)
• Attitude/Striking Style: Orthodox/Muay Thai
• Risk management: Fair

Additional info:
+ Former UFC lightweight champion
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ 10 KO wins
+ 21 submission wins
+ 16 finishes in the first round
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Improved boxing ability
^ Accurate hooks and uppercuts
+ Solid muay Thai arsenal
^ Dangerous knees and elbows
+ Hard leg kicks
+ Underrated refractive power
^ Strong takedowns from the clinch
+ Excellent transition grabber
^ Miscellaneous submission sense
+/- 2-0 in career rematches

Michael Chandler UFC 309 preview

Booklet information:

• Record: 23-8 MMA, 2-3 UFC
• Height: 5’8″ Age: 38 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 71.5″
• Last Fight: Submission loss to Dustin Poirier (Nov 12, 2022)
• Camp: Sanford MMA (Florida)
• Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox/Kickboxing
• Risk management: Fair

Additional info:
+ 3x Bellator Lightweight Champion
+ 4x NCAA Division-I All-American wrestler
+ 11 KO wins
+ 7 submission wins
+ 12 finishes in the first round
+ KO power
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Improved footwork and fundamentals
^ Will change stance in combination
+ Dangerous right hand
^ Appears on or off the disk
+ Excellent refractive power
^ Explosive level-changing takedowns
+ Good transition catcher
^ Effective strikes and submissions
+/- 3-2 in career rematches
+/- Comes after a 2-year notice

Michael Chandler vs. Charles Oliveira point of interest: Striking second time

The co-main event at Madison Square Garden features a rematch between top-ranked lightweights Charles Oliveira and Michael Chandler.

Apparently sure things are death, taxes and the UFC matchmakers drowning us with rematches since the pandemic.

But in Mick Maynard and Sean Shelby’s defense, the first meeting between Oliveira and Chandler, which went down three years ago at UFC 262, was the fun, back-and-forth action fight you’d expect from these two.

Chandler, incorporating the bodywork I called for the first time, was able to build a cross to the body to come up with a left hook that hurt Oliveira and sent him into grappling mode. The American was able to hurt Oliveira with another left hook after they got back to their feet, but it was the Brazilian’s left that had the last word in the following frame.

Oliveira caught Chandler resetting his main position back in the middle after another cross to the body, and Oliveira was able to capitalize on a perfect interception that ended the fight. Since then, “Do Bronx” has kept something of a tightrope theme going forward in terms of the fine line he walks in his matches.

Oliveira will still Thai march forward like a marauding madman and keep a sort of “touch-n-go” theme as he seems to have a bit of a hardwire to catch and land punches.

The timing changes involved can work well on a multitude of opponents, but tempo and speed changes are a potent two-way street when dealing with an explosive athlete like Chandler.

An inherent press fighter who burst onto the UFC scene as a legendary bull in a china shop, you rarely find Chandler taking a step back in his contests. Carrying on the athleticism and explosiveness he displayed as a wrestler on the Mizzou mats, Chandler’s boxing technique made impressive strides back in his first Bellator tournament, which in turn helped him win his first world title.

Since then, Chandler has seemed to settle in at Sanford MMA, where striking trainer Henri Hooft has been able to help with the offensive fundamentals.

I’ll be curious to see what Chandler’s approach will be on the feet for this one; and if that plan involves a little more grappling this time.

Michael Chandler vs. Charles Oliveira breakdown: Winning the wrestling

Considering how close each side came to closing the show on the floor in their last meeting, I’ll be curious to see if either fighter is confident enough to play in the grappling department this time around.

A four-time NCAA All-American standout who comes from a solid program and wrestling class, Chandler demonstrates the ability to dictate wrestling traffic in most of his matches.

Whether Chandler is leveling for a double or chaining out a single leg, the former Mizzou team captain can be hard to deny when he sets his sights on taking someone down. Chandler’s reactive speed and almost karate-like footwork allow his level-shifting decent coverage in the open, but the 15-year pro looks to enter most of his grappling exchanges against the cage.

Despite Chandler being the better wrestler on paper, Oliveira was the more active and offensive wrestler of the two.

Shortly after being knocked out by Frankie Edgar back at UFC 162, Oliveira worked diligently to improve that part of his grappling game. Now, it’s not uncommon to see Oliveira take out a decent amount of his contemporaries early and often (especially if he can get to any variation of a bodylock).

If Chandler tries to get offensive with his takedowns, as some of us suspected last time, don’t be surprised to see Oliveira return to his home front choke counters.

Oliveira is a master of most variations of the front headlock, showing acumen to change the dynamics of a position while unleashing interweaving submission attempts as if he were firing them from an M-60 machine gun.

Fortunately for Chandler, he has some underrated grappling skills and experience in his back pocket.

In association with high-level camps and catching wrestling coaches like Neil Melanson early in his career, we’ve seen the former Mizzou Tiger show solid flashes of a fine-tuned transition grappler during parts of his development. From submission defense to the small details of fighting inside a person’s guard, Chandler shows all the basics from hand fighting to head position, which of course opens up the possibility for him to land his fierce ground and pound.

Chandler also isn’t afraid to take backs that become available, but risks falling into the honey trap of a fast-paced match if he allows things to get too wild.

Michael Chandler vs. Charles Oliveira odds

Oddsmakers and the public favor the former UFC lightweight champion, listing Oliveira -265 and Chandler +200 via FanDuel.

Michael Chandler vs. Charles Oliveira prediction, choose

Despite this fight opening as a pick’em the first time around, I can understand why the odds are tipped in Oliveira’s favor.

Aside from being the more active fighter who won the first time around, it’s hard to be sure about Chandler given the intangibles of his current state.

From the disappointment of spending most of the last two years waiting for Conor McGregor to the fact that he has admittedly struggled to get back to 155 pounds for this fight, I find myself turning from the attitude I had last time.

While I still believe that Chandler quietly has the tools to be one of the toughest matchups for Oliveira at this weight class, his hard-wired to fight at unsustainable breakneck pace makes things a tough gambit to come by behind.

Not only is Chandler’s stamina becoming more suspect by the day, but I think there has been some skill regression in key areas that has only added to his problems.

Chandler’s striking defense, for example, took a serious hit after parting ways with then-boxing trainer Gil Martinez before entering his first career rematch with Eddie Alvarez.

A boxing coach that I also trained under, Martinez was good at instilling in his fighters to always move their heads after throwing punches (eg rolling their heads off crosses, etc.).

And sure enough, in Chandler’s rematch with Alvarez, we got some of our first glimpses of the natural disregard for defense that Chandler can have without the proper tools at his disposal.

Another troubling trend is that Chandler, who has some really good striking and underrated submission skills, has been steadily moving away from his grappling since parting ways with his longtime catch wrestling coach Neil Melanson prior to his UFC run. And since those two trends are huge for matchups like these, I find myself picking Oliveira this time.

It’s a scary prediction to make as rematches rarely go the same way in MMA, but I’m officially picking “Slim Charles” to keep his perfect rematch record alive by securing a club-and-sub in Round 2 .

Michael Chandler vs. Charles Oliveira start time where you can see

As a co-main event, Chandler and Oliveira are expected to go to the octagon at approximately 11:45 PM ET. The match will be broadcast live on pay-per-view via ESPN+.