What needs to happen for Georgia to reach the SEC Championship game?

Georgia football is in a position in the SEC standings that they are not used to being in. The Bulldogs have some work to do just to get into the SEC Championship game, and that includes needing some help from other teams as well.

Since the SEC no longer has divisions, the two participants in the championship game each season go to the two teams atop the SEC standings at the end of the regular season. And as it stands now, Georgia is looking on the outside.

Texas, Texas A&M and Tennessee all have just one loss in conference play, and Ole Miss, Alabama, Missouri and LSU are all tied with Georgia with two losses. So any of these teams are still alive in the hunt to get to Atlanta to play for an SEC Championship.

While it may seem like a long shot for Georgia to get there, it’s still possible. So what does Georgia need to do to get there?

The easy part of this equation is that Kirby Smart and Georgia must beat Tennessee. Failure to do so would make it impossible for the Bulldogs to reach Atlanta. So a win over Tennessee is required, which would give UGA the tiebreaker over Tennessee in the SEC standings.

With so many teams tied in the SEC with two losses, the conference would have to move way down in theirs list of tiebreakers to see who would make it through in any scenario. But the simplest scenario is that both Alabama and LSU lose one more game.

The Tide currently hold the tiebreaker over Georgia as they beat the Bulldogs earlier this season, so a third loss to Alabama is necessary. Alabama’s last two SEC games are against Oklahoma and Auburn, so unfortunately it looks like the Tide will win both games. But anything is possible, so hopefully one of these teams is able to win.

LSU is the second team Gerogia has to lose another game, and they have three more opportunities to do so. The Tigers play at Florida this weekend and then close out their season against Vanderbilt and Oklahoma. LSU will likely be favored in all three games, but the Tigers haven’t looked that good recently, so there’s a good chance they’ll lose at least one of those games.

Based on those two teams losing and Georgia beating Tennessee, that would leave the SEC with just one one-loss team. It would be the winner of the season finale between Texas and Texas A&M.

So now there would be a traffic jam of two losing teams, including Georgia, the loser of the matchup between the Texas schools, Ole Miss and Tennessee, all of whom would be looking to get the final spot in the SEC Championship game.

This is where it becomes difficult to break the tie, as the SEC would have to go to tiebreaker rule no. 4 to start separating these teams. Looking at the winning percentage of each team’s SEC opponents, this tiebreaker would eliminate Ole Miss and Tennessee.

From there, if Georgia and Texas were the last two teams remaining, Georgia would advance to the championship game due to their head-to-head wins earlier this season. But if Texas A&M is the team tied with Georgia instead, the SEC would have to go to the tiebreaker No. 2 to separate these teams. This tiebreaker looks at team records against common opponents. Georgia and A&M will play four of the same teams this year, with both beating three of the four. But Georgia’s win against Texas (and A&M’s loss in the season finale) would give the edge to Georgia.

So at the end of the day, it’s all very complicated, but it all comes down to just three results needed for Georgia to advance to Atlanta. The Bulldogs need to handle their business first and beat Tennessee and then hope Alabama and LSU both lose one more game.

Sure, it may seem unlikely, but crazier things have happened. But even if Georgia doesn’t make it to the SEC Championship game, they’ll still be fine College football playoff as long as they win their last three games. And most Georgia fans would probably be fine with that outcome, since winning a national championship is more important than winning the SEC.