SEC tiebreakers, scenarios, best odds to play SEC Championship

On November 17, 2024By Littum

There are still several college football teams in contention 2024 SEC Championship.

And with the conference moving away from divisions after Oklahoma and Texas joined the league in 2024, it’s become a bit difficult to find the two teams that will show up to the conference title game.

Texas A&M, Tennessee and Texas all sit atop the SEC standings with one conference loss each, with Georgia, Alabama, Miss OleLSU and Missouri tied with two losses.

There is still plenty to find out between now and Dec. 7, when the game will be held at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, as several of the teams still in contention have yet to play this season. And how the conference standings shake out could prove to have massive implications for the College Football Playoff, with the conference champion a virtual lock to claim a first-round bye.

Here are the SEC standings tiebreaker scenarios, including which teams are likely to reach the SEC Championship Game this season:

SEC standings tiebreakers

There are six ways to break a tiebreaker in the SEC’s current tiebreaker rules, which were announced in August.

There is a list of ways to break a tie, and the procedures are carried out in descending order to determine who gets the highest place or places between the teams.

Here is complete list of tiebreakersaccording to the SEC:

ONE. Intercompetition against equal teams
B. Record vs. all regular conference opponents
C. Record against the highest (best) ranked common conference opponent in the conference standings and continue through the conference standings among tied teams
D. Cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents among tied teams
E. Limited relative total scoring margin versus all conference opponents among tied teams
F. Random draw of even teams

In the event that two teams are tied for first place in the SEC standings, both will qualify for the SEC Championship Game. The tiebreaker process would then be used to determine home/away seeding.

SEC tiebreaker scenarios

There are a ton of teams still fighting for a spot in the SEC Championship. Here are the easiest paths to the game for each of the remaining teams in contention:

Tennessee: Beat Georgia AND Vanderbilt
Texas A&M: Beat Auburn AND Texas
Texas: Beat Arkansas, Kentucky AND Texas A&M
Alabama: Beat Oklahoma AND Auburn | Georgia OR Vanderbilt beats Tennessee | Missouri wins at least two of three remaining SEC games against South Carolina, Mississippi State and Arkansas

Tennessee, Texas A&M and Texas each control their destiny for a spot in the SEC Championship. If Tennessee wins and Texas A&M and Texas do not lose before meeting in the regular season finale, the Vols will face the winner of a revived in-state rivalry. That’s the easiest scenario.

Alabama also has a relatively straightforward path to the SEC title game, though it doesn’t control its own destiny.

The Crimson Tide must win, have Tennessee drop one of its remaining games to Georgia or Vanderbilt, and have Missouri win two of its three remaining games against South Carolina, Mississippi State and Arkansas. At the time, Alabama would finish above Ole Miss, Tennessee and Texas A&M in conference opponent winning percentage (.500) and ahead of LSU due to head-to-head results.

The tiebreak scenarios get lopsided for the remaining teams in the game in Georgia, Ole Miss, Missouri and LSU, as they would need complete chaos to find themselves in the game.

Speaking of chaos, there is a scenario where the SEC ends up in an eight-way tie for first place in the league. How about that for the first year of the 12-team College Football Playoff? Some programs will probably be scratching their heads in that case.

Here’s what needs to happen for an SEC Armageddon:

Georgia beats Tennessee
The winner between Texas and Texas A&M will lose before their season finale
Alabama, Ole Miss, LSU and Missouri win

This scenario would give eight teams two losses and would result in a strength-of-schedule tiebreaker.

In that scenario, Alabama would finish first ahead of Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss, Missouri, Tennessee, Texas and Texas A&M, based on conference opponent winning percentage (51.56%). LSU would finish second behind the Crimson Tide and ahead of the aforementioned teams with a conference opponent winning percentage of 48.44%.

Best odds to win SEC championship game

Here are which SEC teams have the best chance to win the SEC championship, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index. The FPI takes into account the chances of qualifying for the conference championship.

Texas (36.7%)
Alabama (32.2%)
Tennessee (12.7%)
Georgia (7.7%)
Texas A&M (6.4%)
LSU (3.4%)
Ole Miss (0.9%)
Missouri (0.1%)

Missouri is the last team yet to be eliminated from the SEC championship game, as Auburn, Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State and South Carolina are mathematically out of the game.

SEC standings after week 11

Here is current SEC position after week 11 of the college football season:

T-1. Tennessee (5-1)
T-1. Texas A&M (5-1)
3. Texas (4-1)
4. Georgia (5-2)
T-5. Alabama (4-2)
T-5. Ole Miss (4-2)
T-7. LSU (3-2)
T-7. Missouri (3-2)
9. South Carolina (4-3)
T-10. Arkansas (3-3)
T-10. Vanderbilt (3-3)
12. Florida (2-4)
T-13. Auburn (1-5)
T-13. Oklahoma (1-5)
15. Kentucky (1-6)
16. Mississippi State (0-6)