Tennessee Volunteers at Georgia Bulldogs Betting, Predictions, Odds, Picks, Lines, Projections, Trends

Saturday features another SEC showdown with plenty of College Football Playoff implications when No. 7 Tennessee Volunteers visit No. 12 Georgia Bulldogs.

Tennessee (8-1, 5-1 conference) is currently atop the SEC standings, while Georgia is fourth (7-2, 5-2). The Vols are 6-1 to win the conference, trailing the No. 3 Texas Longhorns (+115) and No. 10 Alabama Crimson Tide (+375). Georgia is 12-1.

Both Georgia and Tennessee are well positioned in the CFP rankings heading into their Week 12 matchup, with the Bulldogs -450 for the playoffs and the Vols -320. Georgia is the fourth pick to win the national championship at 9-1, and Tennessee is seventh on the board at 18-1.

Kickoff from Stanford Stadium in Athens, Georgia is at 7:30 PM ET Saturday on ABC/ESPN+.

Odds current as of time of publication, courtesy of ESPN BET

The lines

Spread: Georgia -10
Moneyline: Georgia -400, Tennessee +300
Above/below: 48.5 (Over +100/Under -120)

Notice in the first half: Georgia -6.5 (-110), Tennessee +6.5 (-110)
Money line in the first half: Georgia -290, Tennessee +225
Total points in the first half: 24.5 (Over +102/Under -125)

Maldonado’s pick: Tennessee-Georgia first half UNDER 5/24

The opening half of this game appears to be a slow-motion chess match between two highly skilled but risk-averse grandmasters. Methodical, strategic and low scoring.

Tennessee’s offensive woes, especially in the first half, are a deciding factor. The Volunteers’ inability to score in the first two quarters of their last three games will likely continue against Georgia’s wall of a defense. Despite managing 20 first-half points against Mississippi State last week, they mustered just seven against Kentucky and were blanked by Alabama in the previous two weeks.

The Volunteers’ offensive struggles are enhanced by their porous offensive line. True freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava has been sacked 16 times this season, with seven of those coming on the road. Tennessee’s penchant for penalties (ranking 120th overall and third-worst in the SEC) further hampers their offensive production. Iamaleava’s passing inconsistency — he’s topped 200 yards in just three of nine games — suggests he could face significant challenges, a stout Georgia defense that ranks 21st against the run, which could force Iamaleava into more passing situations .

Georgia’s offense, despite its reputation, is not without its own weaknesses. The Bulldogs’ ground game has been remarkably ineffective, averaging just 119 rushing yards per game (104th in the FBS), making their offense more predictable. Quarterback Carson Beck’s turnover issues are concerning as he has 12 interceptions, nine of which have come in the last four games. Turnovers could further prevent Georgia from piling up points against a Tennessee defense that has given up just 13 total touchdowns this season, tied for fourth-fewest.

Beck has struggled with decision-making, often forcing passes into tight coverage and has acknowledged it.

“There are times when it’s OK to throw it away if it’s not there,” Beck said. “That’s something I think I did a lot better last year.”

Just like in chess, where cautious play leads to drawn out and low-scoring matches, this game feels poised for a similar result that is more about defense and attrition than explosive scoring, making under 24.5 a logical and calculated choice.

Betting trends

Courtesy of ESPN Research

• Georgia has covered five straight against Tennessee, but is just 1-7 ATS as a favorite on the year.

• Tennessee has the second-worst ATS record as a road underdog since the start of last season.

• Georgia is 1-7 ATS as a favorite this season, second-worst in FBS (min. 5 games; Arizona 0-5 ATS).

• Tennessee is 3-0 ATS against ranked teams this season, second best in the FBS (Mississippi State 4-0 ATS).

• Georgia has failed to cover in three straight home games; The Bulldogs have never lost four straight ATS in a season under Kirby Smart.

• Georgia is 3-5 ATS in its last eight following a loss (including an ATS loss earlier this season) and 8-6-1 ATS from a loss overall under Smart.

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