Buffalo Bills Week 11 Roots Interests: It’s a big week for the top 5 AFC teams

On By Littum

It’s Chiefs Week, Bills Mafia! If you were to ask quarterback Josh Allen, he’d tell you this is the most important game on the Bills’ schedule — but not because of the opponent, simply because it’s next. We won’t ask him, because every Buffalo Bills fan knows there’s so much at stake anytime Buffalo and Kansas City meet on the field.

The chance to capture the one seed and a bye to the playoffs depends on the outcome of this week’s game in Orchard Park, NY. And while it’s not a terrible spot to enter the playoffs, a Bills loss and a win is off Pittsburgh Steelers also puts it at risk. Plus, there are bragging rights — the whole “Mahomes vs. Allen” argument, the “Reid vs. McDermott” saga, the “Buffalo vs. Refs” drama — it will all be talked about before the game, during the game , and in days after the match.

But despite it all, there are 13 other games to be played in Week 11, and 11 of them have the opportunity to affect Buffalo’s final seeding at the end of Week 18.

Here’s a look at the current AFC standings as we head into Week 11

AFC East

  1. Buffalo Bills (8-2)

  2. Miami Dolphins (3-6)
  3. New York Jets (3-7)
  4. New England Patriots (3-7)

1. Kansas City Chiefs (9-0)
2. Buffalo Bills (8-2)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2)
4. Houston Texas (6-4)
5. Baltimore Ravens (7-3)
6. Los Angeles Chargers (6-3)
7. Denver Broncos (5-5)
8. Indianapolis Colts (4-6, 3-4 AFC)
9. Cincinnati Bengals (4-6, 2-4 AFC)
10. Miami Dolphins (3-6)
11. New York Jets (3-7, 2-1 in NE regular games)
12. New England Patriots (3-7, 0-3 in NEW regular games)
13. Cleveland Browns (2-7, 2-3 AFC)
14. Tennessee Titans (2-7, 2-4 AFC)
15. Las Vegas Raiders (2-7, 2-5 AFC)
16. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-8)

In terms of playoff contenders, Baltimore and Houston hold tiebreakers over Buffalo, and of course the tiebreaker with the number one seeded Chiefs is up for grabs this week. The Bills don’t face the Steelers, Chargersor the Broncos before the end of the regular season. Although Denver or Los Angeles are unlikely to usurp Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West and as unlikely as the Bills losing their stronghold atop the AFC East, the possibility is still mathematically there.

So now that we know what our priorities are, let’s look at which games are important to the future fortunes of the Buffalo Bills.

Buffalo Bills (8-2) over Kansas City Chiefs (9-0)

Sunday at 4:25 PM EST (CBS)

As members of the Bills Mafia, we all know how important bragging rights are when Allen and company finish with a better score than the Chiefs. Add in the fact that Kansas City has yet to lose a game in 2024, and a win would be that much sweeter. And if that’s not enough, should Buffalo win, there would be just one game between the top two AFC teams, with the Bills holding the tie breaker.

It goes without saying, but… Go Bills!

AFC EAST

Las Vegas Raiders (2-7) over Miami Dolphins (3-6)

Sunday at 1:00 PM EST (CBS)

Sure, the Dolphins win would improve the Bills’ Strength of Victory (SOV) (and because of that, it wouldn’t be terrible if they won on Sunday). But a Buffalo win and a Miami loss would mean the Dolphins, who some analysts predicted would win the division this year, would be one loss from being eliminated as a division champion.

Los Angeles Rams (4-5) over New England Patriots (3-7)

Sunday at 1:00 PM EST (FOX)

Buffalo hasn’t played either of those teams yet — they will in a few weeks — so with that in mind, this is like the Miami game above. A Bills win, a Patriots loss and then another loss next week while Buffalo is on the bye and New England is all but out the door to the AFC East — officially.

Indianapolis Colts (4-6) over New York Jets (3-7)

Sunday at 1:00 PM EST (CBS)

The Bills beat both the Jets and Colts, but with another game against New York at the end of the season, that win could be thrown away if the Jets get going in Buffalo in December. Of course, the Colts beat the Steelers and the Bills beat the Colts, so when it comes to regular games, Buffalo gets a point there. But the Jets are another team that was picked to be atop the AFC East back this summer, and giving them their exit slip early would be nice. Like the two teams above – it could happen the first weekend in December if everything goes right.

Remaining AFC games

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-8) over Detroit Lions (8-1)

Sunday at 1:00 PM EST (CBS)

The Bills will have to do everything they can to avoid ending up with the same number of wins and losses as every other AFC team, but should they find themselves there with the Pittsburgh Steelers, they’ll need the strongest SOV score they can few – and so far, the one they have is not too high. The Jaguars winner will make it happen immediately. The Bills will face the Lions in Week 15, but with that game yet to be played, it’s best to go by what we know.

New Orleans Saints (3-7) above Cleveland Browns (2-7)

Sunday at 1:00 PM EST (FOX)

Buffalo doesn’t play either of those teams, but the Steelers will play the Browns. While Cleveland has very few wins, the more L’s the better in terms of Strength of Schedule (SOS) (and possible, but not likely, SOV) for Pittsburgh.

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2) over Baltimore Ravens (7-3)

Sunday at 1:00 PM EST (CBS)

I know all we’ve been doing is talking about taking down the Steelers. But here’s the problem: If the Ravens end up with the Bills, they win the better seed. There is no chance Buffalo comes out on top with a Baltimore win. Head-to-head games are the number one tiebreaker, so until Baltimore is safely a few games behind the Bills, continue to root for their opponent. In this week’s case, Buffalo has at least a chance to break the tie with the Steelers, so a wild card spot has to go to the Ravens.

Tennessee Titans (2-7) over Minnesota Vikings (7-2)

Sunday at 1:00 PM EST (CBS)

We’re back to talking about being with Pittsburgh. Improve Buffalo’s SOV, improve their chances of being a better seed than the Steelers. The more wins teams the Bills beat have, the better Buffalo looks. In addition, the Bills have a pick in 2025 NFL Draft which used to belong to the Vikings (acquired through the Stefon Diggs trade) — losing to Minnesota could make that pick worth just a little bit more. So, as much as it kills us to say it, Titan Up this weekend.

Denver Broncos (5-5) over Atlanta Falcons (6-4)

Sunday at 4:05 PM EST (FOX)

The Steelers beat both of those teams and the Bills won’t play either. However, the Broncos have the seventh and final playoff spot right now. Things could get a lot more interesting at the bottom of the wild card race as both the Colts and Bengals try to steal that spot from Denver. Honestly, trying to pick a winner here is going to start looking like “who do we match up with” in the playoffs, but for now, keep it simple – and keep the Bengals out of the playoffs just because we’re allowed to be petty – that’s how we go with this one.

Cincinnati Bengals (4-6) over Los Angeles Chargers (6-3)

Sunday at 8:20 PM EST (NBC)

Tired of talking about the Steelers? Sorry, we have one more. Pittsburgh beat the Chargers. Yes, they’ll get two chances to beat the Bengals in the final month of the season, but two things to remember: (1) we’re not dealing with the unknown and Cincinnati is picking up steam, so these aren’t guaranteed wins for the Steelers , and (2 ) of these two teams, only the Chargers have a winning record (important for SOV results).

Dallas Cowboys (3-6) above Houston Texas (6-4)

Monday at 8:15 PM EST (ESPN)

As with the Ravens, the Bills are out of luck if they end up tied with the Texans at the end of the regular season. If Houston’s problem is having fewer wins than Buffalo when Week 18 ends, that wouldn’t be a bad thing.

NFC games affecting bills

Seattle Seahawks (4-5) over San Francisco 49ers (5-4)

Sunday at 4:05 PM EST (FOX)

The Bills had a great game in Seattle three weeks ago, coming home with a 31-10 win. That, of course, started the Seahawks on a losing skid that now has them below .500. Now, Buffalo has beaten just one team with a winning record (the Arizona Cardinals). Of course, they play the 49ers after the bye, but a win by Seattle this week, then wins by either team next week, and Buffalo has a win over two winning teams with a chance to make it three in Week 12.

Games that don’t matter to the Buffalo Bills

NFL teams on the Bye

If the Bills win on Sunday, nothing happens – except that the Bills Mafia gets bragging rights and a whole lot of funny posts on social media. The Bye Week will be long, but not miserable, and Buffalo will be oh-so-close to winning the fifth AFC East crown. But if they lose, the time between the end of Week 11 and the start of Week 13 will seem like a month of Sundays – all filled with football talk, but nothing we want to hear.

So let’s go with the how AFC Playoff Image will see if everything goes Buffalo’s way in Week 11.

1. Kansas City Chiefs (9-1)
2. Buffalo Bills (9-2)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-2)
4. Houston Texans (6-5)
5. Baltimore Ravens (7-4)
6. Los Angeles Chargers (6-4)
7. Denver Broncos (6-5)
8. Indianapolis Colts (5-6, 4-4 AFC)
9. Cincinnati Bengals (5-6, 3-4 AFC)
10. Miami Dolphins (3-7)
11. New York Jets (3-8, 2-1 in NE regular games)
12. New England Patriots (3-8, 0-3 in NYJ regular season games)
13. Tennessee Titans (3-7, 2-4 AFC)
14. Las Vegas Raiders (3-7, 2-5 AFC)
15. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-8)
16. Cleveland Browns (2-8)

Now we know who to root for, who to root against, and which games to watch for in Week 11.

Go Bills!