Shaq’s NBA ratings theory is wrong, and here’s why fans are deserting as the league closes in on a $77 billion broadcast deal.

This summer, the NBA signed a $77 billion TV rights deal, and they may have gotten lucky doing it.

With NBA ratings falling, NBA legends and pundits have speculated on the reasons behind it.

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The recent primetime slots, which usually see large television audiences, have seen significant viewership declines compared to the past few seasons.

The NBA was in competition with the MLB World Series for the first few rounds of the new season, and television audiences took a hit, while the series between the Dodgers and Yankees was the most-watched Fall Classic since 2017.

ESPN’s opening week doubleheader in October — Bucks at Sixers then Suns at Clippers — averaged just 1.6 million viewers, down 42% from the same period in 2023, according to See sports media

In addition, ESPN’s first doubleheader on Thursday saw a 29% drop despite being an expected Luka Doncic vs. Victor Wembanyama matchup when the Spurs played the Mavericks.

NBA legend and now TNT broadcaster Shaquille O’Neal weighed in on this issue and offered his theory on declining TV ratings in an episode of The Big Podcast.

“I have a theory that (the rating) has gone down because we’re looking at the same thing,” O’Neal said.

“Everybody runs the same plays…Steph Curry and those guys messed things up, I don’t mind Golden State shooting threes back then, but every team isn’t a three-point shooter”

The four-time NBA champion ended by suggesting that NBA teams should return to the old styles of play in response to his podcast host, Adam Lefkoe, who mentioned that Anthony Edwards averages close to ten threes a game.

“I think the ratings are going to continue to go down unless we switch things back up,” Shaq said.

The number of three-pointers per game has increased significantly in recent years, with the Golden State Warriors often blamed for the increase in how many three-pointers teams shoot a game.

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In the 2010/11 season, the Orlando Magic led the NBA with the most three-pointers per game. game, averaging just 25.5, fast forward to this season and The Boston Celtics are averaging 51.4 threes a game with the Charlotte Hornets second at 44.7.

Three-pointers dominate the game, but not everyone shares the view that this is causing the decline in ratings and television audiences.

Speaking exclusively to talkSPORT, Front Office Sports business reporter Colin Salao explained that it is misleading to suggest that shooting threes is causing a drop in viewership.

“At the end of the day, it’s star power not threes,” Salao said.

“It’s star power that’s going to make the numbers. Look no further than what happened last week. The most watched game since opening week this year happened last week and that’s because Steph Curry played his first national game on television .

“It had 2,100,000 viewers and it was up 30% over last year’s comparable window, you can’t tell me that’s a coincidence. They played the Celtics, and the Celtics are the team that Shaq criticized for shooting so many threes.”

Salao went on to explain that as a result of the American star players not competing for championships, this affects interest in the regular season.

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Curry was the last American superstar to win a championship back in 2022, but with him and Kevin Durant both 36 and LeBron James turning 40 later this year, some argue the younger Americans coming through haven’t yet captured the imagination of the nation as the trio did when they came through.

“The best players in the league are European, and while I personally love watching Luka or Giannis, people just don’t have the same emotional attachment to Europeans that they love their Americans,” Salao added.

“Michael Jordan carried the league for a decade, he retired and ratings and ratings went down, we had the Pistons and Spurs in the finals for a few years when the ratings were low, then LeBron came through and became the face of the league and the numbers go back up.

“We’ll have to see who can take the mantle when this current crop of LeBron, KD and Steph are gone, maybe it’ll be Cooper Flagg, but right now there’s not a clear front-runner from an American perspective.”

With the trio of KD, LeBron and Steph nearing the end of their careers, the NBA will have a lot to do to ensure they can capture the attention of a younger generation.

Maybe when Flagg comes through and Victor Wembanyama is on a team that wins 30+ games a year, the NBA will have a rivalry it can foster again and its ratings and viewership will increase.