What is the US snow forecast for this winter?

Curious about what national weather forecasts are predicting snowfall across the United States in the next few months?

Snow bunnies living in the Pacific Northwest are expected to see extra precipitation through February, as are those in the Great Lakes region.

The south, from sea to shining sea, is likely to see less moisture than normal. And the rest of us? It’s a coin toss, according to one National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast which extends from December 2024 to February 2025.

The Washington Post Climate Lab the forecast is more definitive, predicting on wednesday that most of the country can probably leave the snow shovels and sleds in the garage for a while. “If this winter’s forecast proves accurate, most of the country can expect less snow this season than normal, continuing a decades-long trend of increasingly meager snowfall.”

Its map, which shows most of the country getting less snow than normal compared to the 1993-2016 average, doesn’t show many states that can expect extra snow, though Washington, parts of Oregon, Montana, northern Idaho, northwest corner of Wyoming, North Dakota and upper Great Lakes could get more than normal. Alaska is clearly predicted to be more snowy.

Snow viewing as art and science

According to the Post, “Seasonal forecasting has come a long way since the days when people tried to predict the severity of the coming winter by examining color of larvae or that abundance of acorns. The forecast shown above is a blend of seasonal climate models from the US, UK, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and Canada – a ‘wisdom of the crowd’ technique that provides more accurate seasonal forecasts.”

Both the Post and NOAA agree that this winter will owe its moisture to the pattern of a slowly developing La Niña, which typically means more precipitation in the north since that’s where storm tracks generally flow, leaving southern areas drier.

“In September, we announced a $100 million investment in NOAA’s high-performance computing system to advance research in weather, climate and ocean prediction because understanding our climate system is critical to making long-range predictions like the Winter Seasonal Outlook, which provide vital information for many of our partners and the public,” said Michael Morgan, NOAA’s assistant secretary of commerce for observing and forecasting, in mid-October. “We continue to innovate in this area and develop new ways to share winter forecast information with the public.”

What about temperatures?

As for temperatures, it’s likely to be colder than normal north into the Northern High Plains and warmer than normal south all the way to the eastern Great Lakes and east coast, New England and northern Alaska, according to NOAA. Most of Texas and the Gulf Coast are especially likely to warm.

Utah and Nevada are expected to be somewhat warmer than normal overall, but they still border the coin-flip territory that includes most of the Midwest in the NOAA forecast. As the administration puts it, “equal chance of seasonal mean temperatures below, near or above average.”

On the map, there is not much drought in Utah through the end of January 2025. But drought is expected to develop or worsen in parts of the Southwest and Gulf Coast.

The Post also offers a county-by-county look at this year’s snow forecast, as well as the change in snowfall over the past 60 years. In Salt Lake County, for example, there is less snow. And the map said Utah overall averaged 67.2 inches per year between 1964 and 1993, then dropped to 56.9 inches on average from 1994 to 2023. That’s a 15% decrease.

If you’re terribly nervous about the short-term weather forecast in your neighborhood, you can still look out the window.