Belgium vs Italy preview: Storylines, odds, prediction as Italians could clinch a quarter-final spot

This one is beautifully clear given how much is at stake for both teams. Hosts Belgium are five points behind second-placed France with just two games left to play. Belgium simply must win to have any chance of securing a play-off spot. Italy, on the other hand, is one point away from qualifying for the quarter-finals of the Nations League for the third consecutive year. However, it is quite clear that they have no intention of settling for a draw as they are determined to top the group after a dismal showing at this summer’s European Championships.

It has been a tough blow for Belgium since a comfortable win against Israel in their opener in this competition. They have lost twice to the French but managed a 2-2 draw with the Italians in Rome, a creditable result no doubt. Unfortunately for the hosts, they haven’t actually beaten Italy in a competitive game since way back in 1972. Even a draw actually comes with some mitigation as it saw the Red Devils go down 2-0 before Lorenzo Pellegrini was sent off in the first half, and Belgium suddenly had a way back in a game that seemed lost.

Italy has been incredibly difficult to pin down in recent years. They failed to qualify for two successive World Cups and yet, sandwiched between these unprecedented failures was a European Championship triumph that saw Italy beat England at Wembley in the final. They have also been at their best in this competition, having won 10 and drawn eight of their last 20 Nations League games. A point here would mean a third consecutive Nations League quarter-final for the Azzurri, an impressive record, especially compared to their struggles in other competitions in recent times.

Belgium will be without two of their biggest stars. Neither Manchester City’s Kevin De Bruyne, arguably the greatest player in the nation’s history, nor Real Madrid goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois will take part. Italy, on the other hand, will be largely at full strength.

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Belgium vs Italy odds

Odds from Betfair and updated from 18:00 GMT Wednesday.

• Belgium to win: 31/20 (+155)
• Draw: 11/5 (+220)
• Italy wins: 7/4 (+175)

Meeting place: Stade Roi Baudouin — Brussels
Time: 19:45 GMT (14:45 ET), Thursday
Streaming: Fubo (US only, try for free)

Form guide

Nations League only

Italy: 3-1-0, 10 points (1st in Group A2), WDWW
Belgium: 1-1-2, 4 points (3rd in Group A2), LDLW

Match prediction

Belgium 1-3 Italy

Despite Belgium having everything on the line in this clash, it is hard to look past the respective forms of the two teams. Italy look set to save their best for this competition and will look to win the match and top the group.

More international coverage

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(Photo by Riccardo Calafiori: Emmanuele Ciancaglini/Getty Images)