Trump’s Impact on H-1B Visas and Legal Immigration. Will he live up to his green card promise?

Donald Trump’s second term signals a tough road ahead for high-skilled immigrants, especially those on H-1B visas and their families. While Trump has floated the idea of ​​”stapling a green card” to “international students,” his previous administration’s record suggests stricter immigration measures are more likely.

During his first term, Trump oversaw a significant increase in H-1B visa denials and requests for evidence (RFEs), leading to increased uncertainty for high-skilled workers. From 2016 to 2020, the H-1B denial rate averaged about 18%, compared to just 3.2% during the Biden administration. Similarly, the number of RFEs nearly tripled under Trump, from about 12% to a peak of 34%.

The Trump Administration 2.0 could make the process more stringent and possibly raise denial rates again, which would make it harder for international students and highly-skilled immigrants to secure or maintain employment.

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Trump 2.0 could spell trouble for H-1B spouses and OPT programs

H-4 visa holders — spouses of H-1B workers — are also expected to face challenges. The Obama-era rule that allowed H-4 spouses to work was previously targeted for elimination by Trump officials. In 2018, former USCIS Director Francis Cissna confirmed plans to “remove H-4 dependent spouses from the class of aliens eligible for employment authorization.” Although this rule was not ultimately repealed, legal experts predict renewed attempts to limit H-4 work authorization, either by eliminating it entirely or by making the process more burdensome. For example, the Trump administration previously added redundant steps that extended processing times for H-4 employment authorization documents (EADs), turning a process that typically takes just minutes into one that can last a year.

Optional Practical Training (OPT), a program that allows international students to work in the United States for 12 months (with an additional 24-month extension for STEM graduates), may also be explored. Stephen Miller, a senior adviser in the Trump administration, previously sought to limit OPT and eliminate the STEM expansion. Although he faced opposition from within the administration, Miller’s influence could re-emerge in a second Trump term, possibly leading to more restrictive OPT policies.

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Forbes quoted Cornell Law professor Stephen Yale-Loehr, who noted that any restrictions on work authorization after graduation would make the United States a less attractive destination for international students, whose work aspirations often depend on OPT or H-1B visa pathways.

Wage requirements for H-1B holders and Trump’s green card promise

Trump declared in June that he will grant automatic green cards to all American college graduates if elected. “Let me just tell you, it’s so sad when we lose people from Harvard, MIT, from top schools and smaller schools that are also phenomenal schools,” he said in a podcast.

“But what I want and what I want to do is if you graduate from a college, I think you should automatically as part of your diploma get a green card to be able to stay in this country and that includes junior high schools. Anyone who graduates from a college, you go in there for two years or four years, if you graduate or you get a doctorate from a college, you should be able to stay in this country.”

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In particular, in 2020, Trump’s Department of Labor proposed a rule that sharply raised the minimum wages for H-1B visa holders and green card applicants, requiring employers to pay over $200,000 in certain roles in some cities, regardless of the candidate’s experience level. A judge ultimately blocked that rule, but Trump officials could pursue similar policies again, potentially pricing many foreign professionals out of the U.S. labor market.