Significant snow potential emerges for Minnesota next week

Get the last leaves raked up and the yard put away this weekend, Minnesota.

It’s still early, but several forecast models are projecting a strong rain-to-snow event across much of Minnesota next week.

The models suggest a rain system will spin into Minnesota late Monday and Tuesday, then possibly stall in the Upper Midwest through midweek. As it spins across Minnesota, it will likely pull in a stream of cold air strong enough to change rain to snow through the middle of next week. And forecast models suggest heavy snowfall is possible.

Let’s start with NOAA’s GFS model. The GFS turns the system into Minnesota late Monday into Tuesday with an initial burst of (needed) rain. Then it stalls, pulling in colder air and changing precipitation to mostly snow. Here is NOAA’s GFS run between Monday noon and 18 Wednesday next week.

Notice how the storm stalls over Lake Superior and then spins back to the south? In this scenario, snowfall would be heaviest in central and northern Minnesota, with lighter blanketing snow in the Twin Cities and the south.

The European model is also driving a storm into our region next week with similar timing. Here is the European model output at 6 next Wednesday. That suggests the most rain in the Twin Cities, with a transition zone to heavy, wet snow in the west and north.

I won’t post snowfall output yet because it’s stupid to try to forecast with significant forecast model errors a week in advance. But suffice to say, the potential for heavy plowable snow grows next week, especially west and north of the Twin Cities.

I have more confidence that temperatures will dip for an extended period behind the system. Models show higher skill with temperature trends than precipitation. NOAA’s GFS model suggests we plunge into the 20s and 30s for several days behind next week’s storm.

It’s been a nice extended fall here in Minnesota. It looks like the door is about to slam on fall, giving way to a wintry landscape across much of Minnesota next week.

Follow along.