Pistons vs. Heat preview: Start of Emirates NBA Cup group stage

The Pistons and Heat are playing a regular season basketball game, but it’s also group stage play for the newly named Emirates NBA Cup. Not only are we no longer calling it the “In-Season Tournament”, but we’ve also got a sponsor for it.

The Pistons seem to be in a weaker group than they were last season, so they actually have an opportunity to maybe win a game or two. It all starts with this very winnable game against a Miami Heat team missing Jimmy Butler.

The Pistons have won three of their last five games, and the two losses during that stretch were by a combined three points, so the Pistons are playing the best basketball they can play right now.

The Heat are coming off a 95-94 win over the Timberwolves, but lost the three games before that. They are playing as well as they can be without Jimmy Butler, but are certainly vulnerable.

Vital games

Where: Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, MI
When: Tuesday 12 November at 7:00 PM EST
Clock: Fan Duel Sports Network Detroit
Odds: Heat (-1.5)

Analysis

I’m a bit surprised to see the Heat favored in this game. I know the Pistons haven’t done a ton to earn the betting lines being favored over a team like the Heat, but the Heat will be without Jimmy Butler and the Pistons already played them close on the road earlier this season.

Jimmy Butler isn’t as good as he once was, but he’s still the heart and soul of this Heat team, and without him, they’re pretty much just a team in the same league as the Pistons this season. Last year that would have been an offensive thing to write off, but I think the Pistons have at least earned a little bit of respect with their play this season.

Without Butler, the Heat will rely heavily on Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo to carry the scoring load. They already trust those two a lot, they just want more touches now. You also have to worry about Piston killer Terry Rozier. He hasn’t been as good with the Heat as he was in Charlotte, but Scary Terry always seems to find a way to play his best games against the Pistons.

Outside of those three, the Heat don’t really have a ton of other players who fear the opposition. They bring Jaime Jacquez, Duncan Robinson and Nikola Jovic off the bench, and all three players are susceptible to getting hot beyond the arc. But I don’t think they have the potential to burn you off the bench like the Pistons just experienced against the Rockets on Sunday with Amen Thompson and Tari Eason.

For the Pistons, they got good news with Ausar Thompson being cleared to return to play, but he’s still likely a few weeks away from playing regular minutes in the NBA, having gone about 8 months without any 5v5 work. So I wouldn’t expect him to play in this game.

That means we’re looking at the usual rotation for the Pistons unless Jalen Duren is healthy enough to play with his ankle injury. If he plays, he will take Isaiah Stewart’s place in the starting lineup and Paul Reed will move back into his third big man role.

This game could get ugly as the Pistons have not been great on offense this season and mostly win with defense. It’s a style of play that the Miami Heat know well, so we could be looking at a low-scoring game if both teams struggle offensively.

As I said above, this is a winnable game. I’d even say that if Jimmy Butler was healthy, but the fact that he isn’t makes the task a bit easier. The Pistons will need more offensively than they have provided during this little hot streak, but if they defend how they have, they have a shot at somebody.

Just hit a few more threes and keep up the effort defensively and the Pistons could very well start group stage 1-0.

I don’t think it’s shocking if you’ve been following this team, but the Pistons didn’t win any games during the group stage of the In-Season Tournament last year, so this is their first shot at a win.

Lineups

Detroit Pistons (4-7): Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, Tim Hardaway Jr, Tobias Harris, Isaiah Stewart

Miami Heat (4-5): Terry Rozier, Tyler Herro, Haywood Highsmith, Kevin Love, Bam Adebayo

Today’s question

Do you like having an In-Season tournament or does it not really do anything for you?