NFL QB stock report, Week 11: Caleb Williams’ mistakes have followed him since college

The Chicago Bears’ midseason offensive decline has raised concerns about Caleb Williams’ long-term viability as a franchise quarterback.

It’s important to be measured by this rating, especially for Bears fans who have seen this film a few times before. First, it’s fair to be critical of Williams’ recent mistakes. Secondly, it is also fair to point out that the struggles are not entirely Williams’ fault. And third, let’s not rush to bury a 22-year-old with nine career starts.

Williams has taken a league-high 38 sacks, in part because he holds the ball too long and doesn’t trust his reads. But there have also been predictable issues with the offensive line, along with errors in play design (route spacing and timing) and play calling. Williams’ 15 sacks over the past two games are more than three teams have allowed all season — the most obvious sign of diminished confidence.

“He’s doing the same things he did in college in terms of holding the ball and being inconsistent with his reads,” a rival executive said. “He could get away with running around, throwing the ball up, throwing across the body, and he had some success doing that. You don’t get away with that too often at the NFL level. I’m kind of surprised that they have not been able to clean up any of this.”

Another director confirmed this assessment.

“Their ability to protect him would be the question,” said the other executive. “He always held the ball too long, so you have to minimize pure dropback situations and support him with a running game that improves the impact of your RPO, QB movement and play action.”

Williams was a magician at USC, drumming up comparisons to Patrick Mahomes with his ability to play off the board, and some of that has been on display with the Bears. Problematically, however, Williams seems to rely too much on the improvisational stuff. It’s common for young quarterbacks to revert to their most comfortable tendencies when the pressure mounts, and that has led to some of Williams’ problems.

99 + 41 = the 5th Pats sack today

: FOX pic.twitter.com/ppqt8toDbk

— New England Patriots (@Patriots) 10 November 2024

To combat that, the Bears must proactively find ways to make Williams comfortable before things naturally get tense. The goal is to help him make plays without thinking, to anticipate the throws instead of waiting to see the routes develop and to keep the offense on time.

This is of course easier said than done.

“It’s really tough, probably one of the hardest things to do, especially with a guy like that who’s so used to holding it and running around to extend plays,” one offensive line coach said. “It’s just repetition and emphasis. And at some point it has to click. There really is no easy way. It is a process.

“They also have to run some things that he’s comfortable with and give him some opportunities to expand on things. It’s a huge challenge, no matter what.”

The coach chalked it up primarily to “typical rookie” struggles with timing and confidence in his reads, though the Bears’ offensive scheme needs improvement. Bears coach Matt Eberflus said Monday the team is evaluating whether offensive coordinator Shane Waldron will remain in his role as play caller.

The defense was buzzing yesterday.@MikeDussault19 highlights the key contributors on the defensive side: pic.twitter.com/q9fL97HvpU

— New England Patriots (@Patriots) November 11, 2024

Williams’ problems have been magnified by another factor. The Bears’ three-game losing streak has included games against rookies Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye, both of whom have played very well and remain on an upward trajectory.

“The expectations for him were so high,” the coach said. “There was no way he would be able to match them.”

It’s enough for Bears fans to have flashbacks of Mitch Trubisky and Justin Fields, highly drafted QBs who didn’t pan out due to poor evaluations or poor overall situations. Williams has the talent, but it’s up to the organization to fully cultivate it.

They were on track for a while, improving to 4-2 after posting 71 points in back-to-back wins against the Panthers and Jaguars, but the team — and especially the offense — has been flat since Daniels beat them with a Hail Mary in Week 8. The break has revealed issues that extend beyond the rookie quarterback.

Williams’ exciting flashes suggest there is enough talent that he can still develop into a bona fide franchise quarterback. He was the consensus no. 1 pick before the draft for a host of reasons, so the Bears’ assessment holds true.

But they need to continue working with Williams to make sure it works the way they envisioned.

Hey Darnold

Sam Darnold is having the best season of his career as coach Kevin O’Connell has capitalized on the potential that made the QB the No. 3 pick in 2018. In all likelihood, Darnold has been productive enough that he will be a top quarterback in free agency , meaning a monster contract should be in his future.

However, Darnold endured the type of performance Sunday against the Jaguars that will fuel skepticism as the Vikings prepare for the playoffs. He was 24-of-38 passing for 241 yards with no touchdowns and three interceptions.

The three choices were awful. The first was just outside the red zone, while the second pair happened in the end zone. Darnold targeted wideout Justin Jefferson on all three.

Darnold simply has to play within himself to be successful. The Vikings have an excellent defense, stars at the skill positions, a complementary running game and a high-level QB-friendly scheme.

Darnell Savage brings our third INT of the day!@darnellsavage_ | #MINvsJAX on FOX pic.twitter.com/Ch7HAtKn2h

— Jacksonville Jaguars (@Jaguars) 10 November 2024

The 27-year-old simply needs to make the plays available to him and stay secure with the ball. His accuracy was erratic throughout the 12-7 win in Jacksonville, and all three interceptions took points off the board.

Worse was against a woeful Jaguars defense that entered the game ranked third-worst in points allowed and second-worst in both total yards and passing yards. They had two — yes, two — interceptions all season and allowed at least 28 points in five of their previous seven games.

Maybe it was just a bad day. Everyone has them. Tom Brady had three interceptions in nine games.

But if the Vikings are going to make any noise in the playoffs against much tougher defenses than the Jaguars, Darnold will have to be much better and prove that this was a fluke. If that happens, he’ll get a life-changing contract in the offseason.

Ripple effects in Jacksonville

The Jaguars have lost 13 of their last 16 games and Trevor Lawrence was on the way back before the left shoulder injury that kept him out Sunday. And the defense has deteriorated after head coach Doug Pederson made some layoffs this offseason, a combination of factors that generally results in further change.

If the Jaguars are in the coaching market after the season, a couple of rival executives agreed that Jacksonville could be a prime spot.

“You get to work with Trevor and try to help him put it all back together,” said one of the executives. “He hasn’t been great, but I still think he has all the tools to be a good quarterback. It will be a job people should want.”

Lawrence signed a five-year, $275 million contract before training camp, but his numbers have gone in the wrong direction for the second straight season. There have been issues with the Jaguars’ ground game and a myriad of mistakes scattered across the offense, including drops and penalties that have plagued the group for more than two years.

The point is that Lawrence shouldn’t shoulder so much of the blame. It would be a task for any quarterback to play well in that situation. And there’s no denying how well he played in 2022, along with how much the Jaguars consistently rallied around him from late deficits.

No, Lawrence hasn’t lived up to the pre-draft hype as a generational quarterback, but no one can do it alone. If the Jaguars improve the operation around him, they will maximize the return on investment.

In the short term, if Lawrence continues to miss time, this presents an intriguing opportunity for Mac Jones. He didn’t play well against the Vikings, but Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores has made life hell for Brock Purdy, CJ Stroud, Jordan Love and Aaron Rodgers this season. You’ll have to excuse Jones for a pedestrian outing in his first start with a new team in the 10th game of the season.

Problematic for Jones, however, the Jaguars visit the Lions this week and then come off their bye against the Texans. It’s a grueling stretch for the former first-round pick, who hopes to use this as an audition for next season.

Jones could capitalize if Lawrence’s absence lasts longer as the Jags close out the season with the Titans, Jets, Raiders, Titans and Colts. If Jones can put together some good rapport, he could work his way into a camp competition against a young QB, the same way Baker Mayfield, Geno Smith and Darnold have recently revived their careers. Otherwise, Jones will likely remain on the backup circuit for a while longer.

(Photo by Caleb Williams: Christian Petersen/Getty Images)