Who will win the BYU-Utah matchup? – Deseret News

Note: With EA Sports’ College Football 25 bringing college football back to the video game world, the Deseret News is simulating every BYU and Utah game against an FBS opponent this season.

It’s here – rivalry week as No. 9 BYU and Utah get ready to meet at Rice-Eccles Stadium.

Saturday’s matchup features a team, the Cougars, trying to remain undefeated and bolster their case for inclusion in the College Football Playoff against another team, the Utes, who are hoping to salvage a frustrating season by pulling off an upset.

How will the first game in this series in three years end?

The Deseret News ran a simulation of Saturday’s game on the EA Sports College Football 25 video game, and if things go even close to how the simulation went, this will be considered an instant classic by one fanbase.

How the simulation was set up

There were a few ground rules in place: The simulation used 12-minute blocks, and I let the computer simulate the game without user intervention.

CPU ratings have also been adjusted slightly from default to make pass defense more realistic – I adjusted pass accuracy from 50 to 35, then adjusted pass defense from 50 to 80.

Damage and depth map movement were also implemented.

Wide receiver Kody Epps and center Connor Pay are still out for BYU – Bruce Mitchell is back at center for the Cougars.

For Utah, there is a big shift. Isaac Wilson and Brandon Rose shared QB reps, and since Rose was the one who spoke to the media on Tuesday and not Wilson, I inserted Rose as the starter.

With two weeks to prepare for the game and time to recover, I had both Junior Tafuna and Keanu Tanuvasa playing for the Utes at defensive tackle.

The uniforms both teams will be wearing were also implemented in the simulation as best I could.

BYU wears the royal rush uniform with royal blue helmets, royal blue jerseys and royal blue pants.

Utah sports an all-red look in its throwback uniforms – unfortunately, red wasn’t available on the Utes’ throwback helmets or pants in the video game, so for the simulation, their throwbacks include a white helmet, red jersey, and white pants.

How accurate was the simulation of BYU’s last game?

The actual score: BYU 37, UCF 24

College Football 25 simulation final score: UCF 31, BYU 24

My analysis: While the simulation was able to predict that both teams would score 24 or more points, it wasn’t too accurate beyond that.

The video game had UCF jumping out, while in reality the Cougars remained undefeated.

BYU also got off to a slow start in the simulation, though in the real game the Cougars broke a 17-0 lead in the first half before maintaining a lead of at least one score the rest of the way en route to the victory.

How accurate was the simulation of Utah’s last game?

The actual score: Houston 17, Utah 14

College Football 25 simulation final score: Houston 28, Utah 24

My analysis: The simulation was able to predict that Houston would knock out Utah, which actually happened.

While the video game had scored a bit inflated compared to what really happened, both in the simulation and in real life, the contest turned on a turnover in Utah.

In the simulation, it was a fumble that helped Houston rally from an early deficit, when in reality it was a Rose interception that caused Houston to kick the game-winning field goal.

How did the simulation between BYU and Utah go?

Final result: Utah 41, BYU 38

Key sequence: First of all, yes, you read the final result correctly (we’ll explain how it got there, in all the crazy detail).

The game came on a pair of back-to-back BYU turnovers after the Cougars had built a 31-10 lead early in the fourth quarter before giving up a long touchdown to Dorian Singer to make it a 14-point game.

The Cougars had a drive going after the Utah score, but Smith Snowden stepped in front of a Jake Retzlaff pass and returned it 56 yards for a pick-six with 6:24 left. That made it a 31-24 game.

On the ensuing possession, Retzlaff was intercepted by Alaka’i Gilman on the first play of the drive, setting up an 11-yard Munir McClain touchdown three plays later to tie the game at 31-31 with 5:10 left.

This is how the simulation took place: Despite what the final score might indicate, the simulation started slowly, like how the actual game might play out.

Heading into halftime, the game was tied at 10-10 and the Utes briefly held the lead after a BYU turnover.

Both teams scored field goals on their opening drives – Will Ferrin hit a 36-yarder to open the scoring, while Utah countered with a 52-yard field goal from Cole Becker.

Midway through the second quarter, Darius Lassiter was stripped of the ball near midfield by Elijah Davis, and Snowden recovered the fumble. That set up a 49-yard touchdown drive for Utah before Luca Caldarella caught a 16-yard touchdown pass to make it 10-3 Utes.

BYU answered, however, when Lassiter caught a 53-yard pass to set up the Cougars in Utah’s red zone and LJ Martin scored on a 5-yard run on fourth-and-2 with 3:44 until halftime to make it a 10-10 competition.

BYU then took control in the third quarter, even after Utah took the opening third downfield before missing a 43-yard field goal.

Lassiter caught a 47-yard pass that moved BYU to the Utah 27, and Parker Kingston followed with a 25-yard touchdown reception on third-and-8 to give the Cougars a 17-10 lead.

After a three-and-out for Utah, Retzlaff hit Chase Roberts for a 60-yard touchdown pass to make it a two-score game.

Another three-and-out gave BYU the chance to add to its lead heading into the fourth quarter, and the Cougars struck again.

Kingston had a 41-yard catch on third down to move the ball to the Utah 41, then scored on a 41-yard touchdown grab to make it 31-10 with 11:20 left, seemingly putting the score to rest .

Utah even struggled a bit on its next drive to move the ball before Rose hit Singer for a 53-yard touchdown pass with 9:12 left.

That set up the aforementioned back-to-back Retzlaff turnovers that gave Utah two touchdowns and tied the game with 5:10 left.

Utah’s defense stood tall again as Connor O’Toole sacked Retzlaff for a 14-yard loss to the BYU 1 that forced a punt. After a 15-yard punt return, the Utes started their ensuing drive at the BYU 37 and quickly scored.

Micah Bernard ripped off an 18-yard run to the 11, then Jaylon Glover scored on a 6-yard run with 2:13 left to give Utah a 38-31 lead on 28 unanswered points — reminiscent of the last time BYU and Utah played at Rice-Eccles as the Utes rallied from a 27-7 deficit to win 35-27.

The Cougars weren’t done, however, as Retzlaff hit Kingston for a 36-yard pass, then found Lassiter wide open for a 15-yard touchdown with 1:20 left, tying the game at 38-38. That drive covered 84 yards in just five plays and took 47 seconds.

However, Utah was given too much time to operate.

Rose completed passes of 20 and 24 yards to Brant Kuithe and Singer, respectively, to get the Utes into field goal territory, and Bernard moved Utah further down the field before Becker lined up a 38-yard field goal on the final play of the game.

Becker hit the game-winner right down the middle, giving the Utes upset in a wild fourth quarter that featured 45 points.

Star players: Rose was effective in his first start, completing 24 of 30 passes for 309 yards and three touchdowns. His favorite target was Singer, who had five catches for 106 yards and a touchdown.

Bernard added 181 yards on the ground as Utah outran the Cougars 170 yards to the 7th.

Defensively, Snowden had a stellar effort with seven tackles, a tackle for loss, a fumble recovery and the six-self.

Retzlaff channeled his inner Ty Detmer in this one, throwing for 535 yards and four touchdowns, though his two interceptions were huge.

Martin had a modest 44 rushing yards for BYU, although Retzlaff was sacked five times.

Kingston (218 receiving yards, two touchdowns), Lassiter (148, 1) and Roberts (104, 1) all went over 100 receiving yards and had a touchdown for BYU.

Key Stats: The biggest deciding factor was that Utah won the turnover game 3-0 and turned every one of those takeaways into a touchdown.

BYU finished with more total yards, 542 to 479, but the Utes were 10 of 19 on third down, while the Cougars were 5 of 12.

How realistic was the simulation?

My analysis: Well, the margin of victory is certainly something that could happen – the history of this rivalry is littered with games that have gone down to the wire.

However, the simulation was much, much more high-scoring than I would dare predict in this one, even though both offenses threw a boatload of trick plays.

Both offenses were definitely too effective in this simulation, especially in the second half – both the Utes and Cougars have much better defenses than the video game gave them credit for.