Ruben Gallego is doing better than other swing-state Dems

On November 10, 2024By Littum

By several measures, Democrat Ruben Gallego appears to have performed better compared to Vice President Kamala Harris than four key Senate candidates did in presidential swing states.

Gallego’s better standing with Arizona voters is more than a mirror image of Republican Kari Lake’s relatively weak appeal with GOP voters and will invite extra scrutiny as Democrats consider their post-campaign future.

Gallego, a five-term member of Congress, received about 5.6% more votes in Arizona than Harris, based on unofficial returns as of Friday night.

In Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the Democratic Senate candidates each received about the same number of votes as Harris.

Gallego’s extra appeal is due at least in part to Lake’s significantly weaker standing with Republican voters. So far, she has pulled 90.4% of President-elect Donald Trump’s vote share.

In the same four other states, only Nevada’s Sam Brown rivaled Lake in drawing votes. In Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the Republican candidate pulled in about 96% of Trump’s vote share.

But Gallego’s relatively better standing with voters has at least one more aspect. Republicans in the other states were likely hampered by third-party alternatives in a way that was not present in Arizona.

The only other option on the ballot in Arizona’s Senate race was the Green Party’s Eduardo Quintana.

Green Party candidates generally appeal to left-leaning voters who are more likely to vote for the Democrats if they vote for a candidate from a major party.

As of Friday night, Quintana had pulled just over 2% of the vote.

Quintana may have benefited from $342,000 in expenses from a shadowy Texas-based organization called the Progressive Century Project that split its expenses to advocate for Quintana and oppose Gallego. It didn’t mention Lake.

In an October letter, for example, the organization described Gallego as “Pro-Israel, Pro-Genocide, Pro-War” and urged voters to “stop the genocide in Palestine,” a message designed to appeal to left-leaning voters.

In a post on social media, Quintana rejected the support and tactics.

“We were not aware of these mailings and my campaign did not approve or endorse them,” he wrote. “As a #GreenParty candidate, I condemn and reject all support from super PACs and dark money.”

In contrast, there were apparently greater headwinds for GOP candidates from third-party elections in the other four states.

In Pennsylvania, a Libertarian Senate candidate received at least 88,000 votes, about 1.3%. Libertarians generally appeal to conservative voters who may vote Republican in the same way that Green Party candidates draw from Democrats.

The Constitution party considered a far-right group that similarly pulls away from the GOP, if anything. The Pennsylvania Senate candidate received at least 23,000 votes, or 0.3%.

The Pennsylvania Greens received at least 64,000 votes, nearly half the total for the Libertarian and Constitution nominees.

Republican Dave McCormick is the expected winner in Pennsylvania, defeating incumbent U.S. Sen. Bob Casey Jr., D-Pa. McCormick got 96% of Trump’s total victory there, and Casey got 99% of Harris’ total votes.

In Michigan, U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich., defeated former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Mich., and may have gotten at least some help from third-party alternatives as well.

Candidates from Libertarian and American taxpayers pulled in a total of 98,000 votes in Michigan’s Senate race. A Green Party candidate received 54,000, while it the natural law party candidate of the extreme left got almost 19,000.

In Wisconsin, U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis., narrowly held off Republican Eric Hovde by about 29,000 votes.

The Progressive Century Project, active in Arizona’s Senate race, also spent $247,000 opposing Baldwin in its only other expenditure.

But Baldwin also benefited from a libertarian independent and a conservative candidate from the America First Party which received a total of 71,000 votes. There were no other third-party options in that race.

And in Nevada there was a completely different possibility.

This state uniquely includes a “none of these candidates” option that drew nearly 41,000 votes in the Senate race in Nevada.

The state also had a Libertarian and a Independent American Party candidate whose website highlights that she once received the “Conservative of the Year” award and notes her advocacy for homeschooling. Her credentials suggest she appealed to potential Republican voters on something.

Together, these candidates received 39,000 votes. Combined with the “none” option, Nevadans had 80,000 votes, likely drawing more from the GOP than the Democrats.

Incumbent U.S. Sen. Jacky Rosen, D-Nev., defeated Republican Sam Brown and led by about 21,000 votes Saturday.