Juan Soto free agent pursuit to dictate Giants’ offseason direction – NBC Sports Bay Area & California

SAN FRANCISCO — The Giants spent months preparing to pursue Aaron Judge during the 2022 MLB offseason, putting together a detailed plan for his visit to San Francisco just before Thanksgiving. When they had to trade Carlos Correa after Judge returned to the New York Yankees, they spent significantly less time trying to impress the free agent.

Some team employees who had been involved in the umpire hunt didn’t even know Correa was the organization’s new top target until word of a deal — pending the physical, of course — leaked on social media.

That offseason taught the Giants a lot of lessons, including an obvious one: When it comes to the very best free agents, the team that offers the biggest contract almost always wins.

There are exceptions, and Judge was one of them. He used the Giants and then the San Diego Padres to get what he wanted from the Yankees, then returned to the only team he’s ever known. This season, Judge teamed with Juan Soto to lead the Yankees to their first World Series appearance in 15 years, and as Soto prepares to take his turn as the best free agent on the market, the Giants need to remember that lesson in 2022 .

Correa agreed to hit Oracle Park because the Giants offered him by far the biggest deal. Sure the shortstop would have stood at the podium and talked about how much he appreciated the history of the franchise, the fan base and the commitment to winning, but the truth would have been that he was a giant because they committed to paying him $350 million.

Soto figures to handle his own free agency much the same way. This isn’t Judge, and this isn’t Shohei Ohtani, pitching three teams with the same unique terms, but ultimately sticking to his plan to be a Los Angeles Dodger. Executives around the league believe Soto will take the biggest deal, period, and he did nothing to change that mindset after the Yankees lost the World Series.

Asked several times that night about staying in New York, Soto continued on message, saying he was looking forward to a free offer and would be open to all 30 teams. At the General Manager meetings on Wednesday, agent Scott Boras made it clear that their side is aiming as high as possible, comparing his client to the Mona Lisa.

“He literally has 15 more years of his best to offer,” Boras told reporters in San Antonio.

That actually makes the start of free agency relatively straightforward for the Giants and new president of baseball operations Buster Posey.

The first thing they have to do this offseason is decide if they’re in or out. Are they willing to make an offer well north of $500 million early in the process? Are they going to hang around when Soto and Boras start talking about the $600 million or $700 million that Ohtani got with almost all of it deferred?

Are they willing to go head-to-head with not only the Yankees, but also Steve Cohen and the New York Mets? Are they willing to outbid Cohen if that’s what it takes? Are they willing to go a little crazy to land a future Hall of Famer?

Only a few people know these answers, led by the new man in charge. Posey attends not only daily meetings about the roster, but also board meetings to handle the Giants’ finances and big plans.

If San Francisco is willing to go all the way and offer the biggest contract, then they will have to spend another winter right in the middle of the rumor mill, and they should be aggressive from the start. When the previous regime missed out on Bryce Harper, a big question was how late Farhan Zaidi entered the bidding. The feeling from Harper’s camp was that the Giants were always one step behind the Philadelphia Phillies.

If the Giants don’t want to be ahead with Soto, they’ll probably have to pivot quickly. There is too much going on with this roster to spend weeks waiting for a superstar who will only come to San Francisco if the contract offer is bigger than all the others.

When the Giants were waiting for Judge to make a decision two years ago, they agreed to a three-year deal with outfielder Mitch Haniger, but it was a very different situation. Haniger was only guaranteed $43.5 million, a deal that could very easily fit into the payroll, even if Judge later agreed.

If the Giants aren’t fully committed to winning the Soto bid, they risk missing out on other ways to upgrade the guard. The biggest deal in franchise history remains the one Posey signed in 2012, and it’s hard to imagine an organization with that track record signing a Soto AND a Corbin Burnes, or a Blake Snell, or a Willy Adames. If anyone repeats the Dodgers’ 2023 offseason — a billion on two players — the overwhelming odds are it will be Cohen.

The Giants need Soto for many reasons, both on and off the field, but they also have other holes. They could use an advanced starter now that Snell has opted out. They need a shortstop who can push Tyler Fitzgerald over to second and make the infield a strength. They could probably use some more power at first base while they wait for Bryce Eldridge to arrive. If Soto isn’t wearing the orange and black, they need someone else to provide more production to the outfield.

In 2022, after Judge said no and the Giants retired Correa, they made a late pivot to Michael Conforto, Taylor Rogers and Luke Jackson. Throw in Haniger, Ross Stripling and Sean Manaea, and it ended up being a very expensive offseason, one without a star, and one that was a disaster.

Last year, the Giants responded to the Ohtani and Yamamoto disappointment by signing Jung Hoo Lee and then deciding to be patient. It was a logical plan, and they ended up with Matt Chapman, Jorge Soler and Snell this spring, but they certainly regretted not putting the pieces of the puzzle in place a few months earlier.

This time, Posey has the financial flexibility to be aggressive and do some heavy lifting early, but first he has to make the all-important decision.

The Giants have finished second too many times over the last decade. Are they willing to write down a number that guarantees it won’t happen again? Because if they aren’t, they should make that decision now and spend the next month figuring out an alternative way to add important pieces to the roster while other big market teams wait to see where the Soto bidding war goes.

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