Why DPS says it must close Denver schools to avert ‘full-blown crisis’

Carrie Olson remembers the first time she was told Denver Public Schools was closing schools because fewer babies were being born.

She had only been on the board of education for a year or two when the state demographer predicted the tough decision that Olson — first elected in 2017 — and her colleagues will begin weighing after Superintendent Alex Marrero unveils his school closure plan this week.

At the time, Olson, a veteran educator, didn’t believe she would shut down a school as a board member. She hadn’t yet connected the dots, she said. Fewer babies mean fewer children going to school across the DPS system, ultimately leading to the loss of tens of millions of dollars a year in funding per child. student for Colorado’s largest district.

Now, Olson said, she and her colleagues are resigned to the fact that they must make what will likely be one of the most difficult decisions of their tenure on the board — a decision that the majority opposed two years ago, when they were presented with a similar plan by Marrero.

“It’s time we looked at this,” said Olson, now the Denver school board president. “It’s time because we need to be fiscally responsible to our district and think about what’s best to serve all students.”

Marrero and district staff have been tight-lipped about their closure plan, which the superintendent will present to the board during Thursday’s meeting. The board is scheduled to vote on whether to adopt the recommendation on 21 November.

DPS officials have not said how many schools will be on that list — the district has more than 200 — or where in Denver they might be located. Last time Marrero presented a list of schools to potentially close, the board — after a month-long process — finally agreed to close three schools.

Additional school closures in Denver are now necessary to prevent “a full blown crisis,” Marrero told the board last week.

Public school enrollment is falling nationally

Elementary school enrollment is falling across the United States as fewer babies are born. The decline coincided with the arrival of the pandemic, which has also led to fewer students in public schools due to chronic absenteeism and an increase in homeschooling.

“There is a declining birth rate across the country,” Olson said.

Statewide, public school enrollment hit its lowest point in a decade — at 881,464 students — during the 2023-24 academic year as other districts face similar challenges to DPS, including Jeffco Public Schools and the Douglas County School District.

Jeffco already closed more than a dozen schools last year. The Douglas County School District is scheduled to announce its consolidation plan in April, with schools expected to close at the end of the 2025-26 academic year.

At DPS, enrollment peaked at 92,112 students in 2019 and continued to decline until last school year, when the unexpected arrival of hundreds of migrant children swelled the number of students in DPS classrooms. DPS enrollment grew by 371 students to 88,235 students during the 2023-24 academic year.

Despite the small increase, 3,877 fewer children were enrolled in Denver public schools last year than they were at the peak in 2019. DPS officials project enrollment will decline through the 2028-29 academic year.

DPS hasn’t seen large numbers of students leave to be homeschooled or attend private schools, district officials said, but it has faced an additional challenge with enrollment: gentrification.

Gentrification and rising housing costs have reshaped where children live in the city, even pushing families out of Denver.

“People are moving to where they can actually afford to live,” said Rob Gould, president of the Denver Classroom Teachers Association.

Fewer students mean less money for schools

Schools don’t just have fewer kids in their classrooms when enrollment drops; they also receive less support per student.

DPS receives $11,750 per students in state aid each year, excluding other revenue streams, such as mill levy overrides.

The district has lost a total of $107 million in revenue since enrollment peaked in 2019. By 2028, the district projects that DPS will bring in $70 million less annually than it did five years ago—and that’s the best-case scenario, Chief Finance Officer Chuck Carpenter said in a statement.

“And that’s why, as painful as it is, we have to take some action,” he said.

DPS, which has one $1.4 billion budgetalso predicts a deficit of $2.6 million for the 2024-25 fiscal year. (That could change after enrollment numbers are finalized through the state’s October census.) Federal pandemic aid that has supported districts’ budgets in recent years has also run out.

The district’s consideration of school closings comes as it also asks voters to approve a nearly $1 billion bond proposal. But if approved by voters Tuesday, the ballot would not be used to support the district’s general budget. Instead, the funds will be used for maintenance and capital needs, such as adding air conditioning to schools.

The district also plans to use money from the bond sale to build a new school in far northeast Denver, where enrollment is rising.

Regardless of whether DPS closes schools or not, the district will continue to bring in less money since fewer students are enrolled. For schools, this can affect their ability to function, much less provide the services needed to meet students’ academic and mental health needs, according to DPS officials.

When a school enrolls 100 fewer students, the building’s budget drops by about $1 million, Carpenter said.

On average, teachers cost DPS about $110,000 apiece annually, including salary and benefits. That means without those 100 students, a school no longer has the money to pay nine employees, including teachers, mental health professionals, paraprofessionals and interventionists, Carpenter said. It could also mean fewer electives for students, as a school would not have enough money to staff classes such as drama or foreign languages.

DPS uses between $15 million and $20 million in budget aid to ensure low-enrollment schools just stay operational, Olson said.

“It’s unstable over time for us to continue,” she said

If the board decides to vote against Marrero’s closure plan, it’s possible schools would be forced to close “operationally” because there’s no financial way to keep them open, Olson said.

“Everyone has known this is a reality”

This will be Marrero’s second attempt to close schools in two years. He first proposed a plan to close 10 schools by 2022, but the Board of Education was reluctant to do so, even after he cut the list to five. Ultimately, the board voted to close just three schools last year: Denver Discovery, Fairview Elementary and the Mathematics and Science Leadership Academy.

Two years ago, board members also criticized the district’s process for school closings, saying they were given only two weeks to make a decision and weren’t given enough information about how the plan would be implemented.

This time, the process has looked a little different — although the seven-member board will still have just two weeks between when the plan is announced and when they vote on Nov. 21. The board earlier this year opened the door for Marrero to present another school closing plan by adopting a policy that sets guidelines for his recommendation, including a timeline.

“Everybody has known this is a reality coming down for the last two years,” Gould said.

And that includes the school board, Olson said.

“Maybe we’re a little more resigned this time,” Olson said of how board members feel about potential closures. “We have been as clear as possible that this is coming.”

But the possible closures also cause criticism in society, including from Movimiento Poderwhich advocates for racial justice in DPS schools.

School closings can affect families’ daily lives, including a child’s ability to access education if their parents don’t own a car, said Elsa Banuelos-Lindsay, executive director of Movimiento Poder.